Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Japan Surprises

2022-12-20

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2022-12-20

The Bank of Japan surprised everyone may lifting the 10-year yield curve cap to 0.50% from 0.25%.The BOJ also said it would increase its bond purchases to JPY9 trillion (~$68 bln) a month compared to the current JPY7.3 trillion.   BOJ Kuroda, whose term ends next April, insisted that the easy monetary policy stance will continue.   The surprise decision sent ripples across the capital markets.  Japanese stocks slumped, with the Nikkei falling...

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The weekend technical report one day late. A look at the technicals driving currency mkts

2022-12-19

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A look at the major currencies vs the USD and what the charts are saying. I was traveling this weekend, so did not have an opportunity to take a look at the technical levels in play heading into the new trading week.   This video report, goes through  each inof the major currency pairs vs the USD and outlines the technical levels in play that should drive the price action and provide traders with a bullish/bearish bias along with risk defining...

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Happy Holidays

2022-12-16

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2022-12-16

There will be no daily commentary over the next couple of weeks.  The next post will be the January monthly outlook on December 29.  Here is to a happy and healthy New Year.  Good luck to us all.

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Lots of balls in the air & that brings uncertainty. What clues can the technicals provide?

2022-12-16

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A look at the technicals for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start the trading day. It's Friday after a week that saw US CPI come out weaker and a Fed and ECB that were more hawkish. That caused some volatility as the markets pondered higher rates, perhaps slower growth, soft or hard landing, etc.  All of which can lead to increased volatility which should encourage understanding the technicals that are in play driven by the storyline of the...

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European Rates Continue to Surge, Sending Stocks Spiraling Lower

2022-12-16

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2022-12-16

Overview: Seven of the G10 central banks pumped the brakes between last week and this week as they purposely seek to push demand back into line with supply. And there are more signs that they are succeeding in weakening growth impulses. The dramatic surge in European bond yields continues today with 10-year rates mostly rising another 13-15 bp.

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ECB has a “come to inflation moment” and sends yields higher, EURUSD higher, stocks lower

2022-12-15

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The ECBs Lagarde along with the ECB were more hawkish on inflation saying that rates would need to rise significantly.  That has sent European yields higher, stocks lower and the EURUSD higher.  The Fed's more hawkish stance meanwhile has the USDJPY moving higher and the GBPUSD lower.  Things are moving.

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The Greenback Recovers After the Initial Post-Fed Wobble

2022-12-15

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2022-12-15

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid after losing ground against most currencies as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision and press conference. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been tagged the hardest, illustrating the risk-off mood, and arguably the weakening growth prospects. Countries that peg their currencies to the dollar have hiked rates, as has the Philippines and Taiwan. The Swiss National Bank and Norway have also lifted policy...

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A look at the technicals post the FOMC rate decision

2022-12-14

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A look at the major currency pairs after the Fed hike of 50 BPS and levels in play

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The technical levels in play in some of major currency pairs ahead of FOMC rate decision

2022-12-14

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With the US CPI in the rear view mirror, what levels are in play for the FOMC rate decision later today at 2 PM ET? In this report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD ahead of that rate decision, and what risk and bias defining levels are in play today and going forward.  The EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY are all trading around key levels on the daily chart, that could be setting up for...

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TSLA technical analysis and critical junction to watch

2022-12-14

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This is a daily chart of Tesla stock and price has exited this channel, which is a risky sign for buy and holders. However, they can consider to reenter, should 2 consecutive daily candles close within the channel. I show how to set a TradingView alert that can elevate your timing to a new level, without the need to be in front of the screen. Trade TSLA stocl at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com technical analysis for additional perspectives....

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What Can the Fed tell the Market it Does Not Already Know?

2022-12-14

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2022-12-14

Overview: The softer than expected US CPI drove the dollar and interest rates lower, while igniting strong advances in equities, risk assets, commodities, and gold. Calmer market conditions are prevailing today, and we suspect that in the run-up to the FOMC meeting, a broadly consolidative tone will emerge. The dollar is mostly softer, but within yesterday’s ranges. Only the New Zealand and Canadian dollars among the G10 currencies are softer....

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What the heck happened after the CPI report? Russell 2000 technical analysis

2022-12-14

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One and half minute analysis showing a technical perspecitve why profit takers sold where they did, post the CPI report. Many traders were confused as the equities futures blasted off before the standard hours of the market, continued at the open, and then signficantly faded to return more of the gains. Here's why. That same technical analysis map can help traders navigate the technical picture of the FOMC meeting reaction coming next. What the...

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The CPI came in weaker but there are some retracements in the USD and stocks

2022-12-13

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Dollar lower but off the lowest levels. Stocks show some upside reluctance too. The USD moved lower and the stocks moved higher after the weaker CPI data, but there is some backtracking going on that needs monitoring from a technical perspective.  In this report Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and the S&P and Nasdaq indices.

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US CPI ahead of FOMC Outcome Tomorrow

2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the...

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Markets Await Central Banks and Data

2022-12-12

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2022-12-12

Overview: There are two themes today. First, there has been a modest bout of profit-taking on Chinese stocks (and yuan) after last week’s surge. Second, the ahead of the five G10 central bank meeting this week a series of market-sensitive economic reports, a consolidative tone is seen in most of the capital markets. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, led by a 2.2% loss in Hong Kong and 3% loss in its index of mainland shares.

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S&P 500 technical analysis before Dec FOMC meeting

2022-12-12

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We are coming near an interesting technical junction at 3937. An area of tripple support on one hand, but, on the other hand, a potential break down of a bear flag. Watch the 2hr timeframe chart for ES, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures and note the patterns and price junction as the market heads into the Big Wednesday and most important day of the end of the year, the FOMC meeting. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

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The Yuan Puts Together its Strongest Two Week Rally in Decades and it has Nothing to do with its Trade Surplus (which Shrank more than expected)

2022-12-11

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2022-12-11

The G10 currencies traded with a heavier bias against the dollar last week. The Swiss franc was the sole exception, and it edged up about 0.25%. The thwarted putsch in Germany and the relaxation of vaccine and quarantine protocols in China were notable developments.

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Central Banks. CPI. Technicals. The major drivers in the markets this week.

2022-12-10

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A look at the technicals in play as well for the week starting December 12, 2022. The week is finally here.  The US CPI will kickstart the markets on Tuesday and that will transition into the Fed decision on Wednesday. Then when that is done, the SNB, BOE and ECB will all announce their interest rate decisions on Friday before the transition into the year end.   To better prepare, it is important to understand the key levels in play from a...

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Five G10 Central Banks Meet and US CPI on Tap

2022-12-10

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2022-12-10

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13.

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Chinese Stocks Extend Rally Even Though Covid Infections Appear to be Spreading

2022-12-09

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2022-12-09

Overview: The easing of vaccination, quarantine, and some travel protocols related to Covid in China (and Hong Kong) continues to draw funds back into Chinese stocks, wherever they trade. The Hang Seng rose 2.3% today to close the week with a nearly 6.6% advance. The index of mainland companies that trade there rose 2.5% on the day for a7.3% weekly gain. The CSI 300 of mainland shares rose 1% today and almost 3.3% for the week. Japan’s 1% gain...

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