Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The Dollar Bounces but is it Sustainable? The Week Ahead

2023-04-15

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2023-04-15

Investors and businesses are wrestling with conflicting impulses. On the one hand, economic growth seems sufficiently strong to allow the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to continue to counter elevated price pressures. They are set to hike rates next month. On the other hand, last month's banking stress is seen translating to a lower and sooner peak in policy rates. Before the bank stress emerged, the market had...

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The USD moves higher and retraces some of the week’s declines

2023-04-14

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Fed's Waller spoke to inflation remaining too high with more hikes needed ("hikes" as in more than 1 more hike). That has given the USD a boost in early NY trading.  The 2 year is up 10 basis points. The 10 year is up 6 basis points. In this technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCAD and outline the levels in play and show/explain why.

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Hawkish ECB Comments Boost Risk of a 50 bp Hike Next Month

2023-04-14

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2023-04-14

Overview: The 0.5% decline in US March producer prices pushed on the door opened by the softer-than-expected CPI on Wednesday. The Fed funds futures market sees the year end rate to a 4.33%, while still pricing in a nearly 70% chance of a hike on May 3 to 5.25%. The dollar tumbled to new lows for the year against the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc. The Dollar Index made a new low for the year today, a few hundredths of an index point below the low...

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BREAKOUT. The PPI and claims data send the USD lower.What next?

2023-04-13

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BREAKOUT! The USD is breaking to new lows vs the EUR and GBP for the year, and the USDCAD is breaking below its 200 day MA for the first time since August 2022. For the USDJPY, it is making a break below its 200 hour MA.  So lots of breaks technically for the major currency pairs. Learn about it, and what's next in the morning forex technical report.  - EURUSD 2:18 - USDJPY 4:42 - GBPUSD 5:56 - USDCAD 7:12

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US Dollar Slumps and China Surprises with Twice the Expected Trade Surplus

2023-04-13

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2023-04-13

Overview:  The market took US short-term rates and the dollar lower after the CPI data, which was largely in line with expectations. On the one hand, the odds of a quarter-point hike next month increased slightly (73.6% vs. 71.6%) to 5.25%, but it reinforced that sense that it is last hike and that the Fed will unwind this hike and more before the end of the year. The year-end implied policy rate fell by about six basis points to 4.33%. The dollar...

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US CPI sends the USD lower. What next for some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-12

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The USD moved lower after the US CPI data. The CPI showed a headline increase of 0.1% for the headline and 0.4% for the core. The Shelter costs continue to elevate the core measure (accounts for 1/3 of CPI data). It increased by 0.6%. Traders and analysts continue to look for lower shelter costs to start to kick in.   Nevertheless, the numbers has lowered yields and pushed up stock prices. The USD has moved lower.  In this video, I take a...

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US CPI is Unlikely to Tell Us Anything We Don’t Already Know

2023-04-12

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2023-04-12

Overview:  Today's highlight is the March US CPI, and while everyone is talking about it, it is unlikely to tell us anything we do not already know. Headline price pressures are easing but the core rate is sticky, and despite comments from the Chicago Fed president about the need for patience, the odds of a hike next month have crept up. Understanding the Fed's reaction function, it seems clear that for most officials, inflation is remains too high...

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USDCHF falls to a swing area support target and stalls. What next?

2023-04-11

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Can the sellers keep control in the USDCHF? A day after buyers pushed the USDCHF higher and above the 200 hour MA - and failed - sellers have take control today and pushed the price of the pair back to where the price has found support buyers going back to last week's trading. Can the buyers now push the price back higher?  Or will the sellers remain in control and push the pair even lower?   IN this video, I explain the levels in play TODAY as...

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The EURUSD and the GBPUSD move back toward the 100/200 hour MAs

2023-04-11

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The USDJPY is trading back below its 100 day MA. What next? In the morning Forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD or higher, but have backtracked lower and tests the 100 and 200 are moving average areas. For the USDJPY, it had a shot above its 100 day moving average both yesterday and into today's trading, but has failed and trades below the level.  Can the sellers stay below that...

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Greenback Pares Yesterday’s Gains

2023-04-11

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2023-04-11

Overview: As the long-holiday ends, risk appetites have returned. Equities and yields are mostly higher. The dollar is seeing yesterday's gains pared. Yesterday's setback in the yen helped lift Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei advancing 1%. Several other markets in the region also gained more than 1%, including Australia and South Korea. China's CSI was an exception. It slipped fractionally. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up nearly 0.6% through the European...

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The Extended Holiday Makes for Subdued Price Action

2023-04-10

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2023-04-10

Overview: The holiday continues. In the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand, and the Philippines markets were closed. The regional bourses advanced but China.  European markets remain closed. US equity futures are narrowly mixed. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off nearly three basis points to about 3.36%. The dollar is trading quietly mostly within ranges seen before the weekend. It is slightly softer against most of the...

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Bullish S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Technical Analysis Reveals 4170+ Price Surge! Don’t Miss Out

2023-04-08

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Good Friday hinted that we are going up. The demonstrated technical analysis hints support more up for ES. Trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. See possible updates within the comment section at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bullish-sp-500-e-mini-futures-technical-analysis-reveals-4170-price-forecast/

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US and Chinese Inflation Highlight the Week Ahead, While the Bank of Canada Stands Pat

2023-04-08

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2023-04-08

Bank shares rose in Japan and Europe for the second consecutive week, but the KBW US bank index fell nearly 2% after increasing 4.6% in the last week of March. Emergency borrowing from the Fed remains elevated ($149 bln vs. $153 bln). Bank lending has fallen sharply (~$105 bln) in the two weeks through March 29. This appears to be a record two-week decline. Commercial and industrial loans had fallen a little in the first two months of the year...

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Good Friday

2023-04-07

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2023-04-07

Overview:  Activity throughout the capital markets remains light as most financial centers in Europe are closed for the Easter celebration. Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Indian markets were closed as well. Still, most of the equity markets in Asia Pacific advanced, led by South Korea's Kospi's nearly 1.3% advance. The market responded favorably to news that Samsung would cut its production of memory chips and shrugged off its smaller than...

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SPX technical analysis: Anticipating 4200 next

2023-04-07

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S&P 500 index is holding well and at the bring of breaking out of the bull flag. I am targeting 4200. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views. Updates may be published in the comments section here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/spx-technical-analysis-im-bullish-with-a-4200-target/

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VIDEO: Initial claims data readjustments from seasonals influencing the major currencies

2023-04-06

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The US initial jobless claims seasonal adjustments mainly due to volatility of covid data (still living that nightmare), sent that series to the upside and change the trend of jobs since mid-January from strong to getting weaker. There markets reacted to that data. In this video I explain the early moves in yields and then in some of the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD.

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Fragile Calm Casts a Pall over the Capital Markets

2023-04-06

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2023-04-06

Overview: There is a fragile calm in the capital markets today ahead of the long holiday weekend for many. The poor US economic data yesterday and third consecutive decline in the KBW bank index weighed on risk sentiment. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, with Hong Kong and India notable exceptions. In Japan, the Topix bank index fell 1.1% after a 1.9% decline yesterday and is now lower on the week. Europe's Stoxx 600 is...

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Party with the elite at the Networking Blitz – the opening party of #FMAS23

2023-04-05

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AUDUSD rebounds off lows but retracement stalls near resistance

2023-04-05

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The AUDUSD fell sharply today but has seen a bounce with the USD selling. The price trades between short term support and resistance. What does that look like? What's next? Those questions are answered in this trading video.

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VIDEO: USDCAD tries to end 7-day slide, but technical resistance keeps a lid on the pair

2023-04-05

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The USDCAD has rebounded today and tries to break a 7 day slide.  The correction higher, however, has run into some short term resistance that puts a lid on the pair.   In this video, I step through the daily and hourly charts of the pair and show in detail what levels are in play.  It is important as a trader to understand the "whys". This video explains so you can replicate the ideas in your trading going forward.

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