Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Dollar Comes Back Bid, as First Republic Taken Over (Mostly) by JP Morgan

2023-05-01

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2023-05-01

Overview: Most markets are closed for the May Day holiday. News that JP Morgan will acquire most of First Republic assets will be a relief for the markets. US equity futures are slightly firmer, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around three basis points higher, slightly above 3.45%. Recall that before the weekend, it has fallen from almost 3.55% to 3.42%. The market has more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike discounted for Wednesday. The...

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Nasdaq futures technical analysis: Aiming for 13500

2023-04-30

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See more at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-futures-technical-analysis-and-price-forecast-key-levels-to-watch-13500-target-20230430/

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May 2023 Monthly

2023-04-29

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2023-04-29

May will feature likely rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. The banking stress that erupted in March appears contained, though one regional bank's dramatic loss of deposits saw it rekindle at the end of April. What makes the May rate hikes important is that the derivatives markets are confident (again) this is the last hike for the Fed. The swaps market anticipates two more hikes from the BOE and...

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Drive your dream supercar at FMAS:23!

2023-04-28

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Experience the ultimate thrill at 🎉FMAS:23🎉 and seize the opportunity to win your dream ride! Stay tuned for exciting updates on how you can become one of the lucky ones to unleash your need for speed in these remarkable supercars!🏎 Don't miss your chance to awaken the inner adrenaline junkie within you!🔥

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The USDJPY is soaring after BOJ decision. The GBPUSD tries another upside break.

2023-04-28

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The USDJPY soared in trading today as new BOJ head Ueda signaled no change in policy.  That has the USDJPY moving toward its 200 day MA at 137.00 area.  The EURUSD moved below the 200 hour MA and trend line, but stalled near the week lows (Tuesday's low). Stay below 200 hour MA keeps the sellers more in control today  A move back above, not so bearish. GBPUSD is trying to break above a swing area. Prior breaks this week failed fairly quickly....

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Yen Slumps on Cautious BOJ

2023-04-28

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2023-04-28

Overview:  The market took a dovish message away from the Bank of Japan and sent the dollar above JPY136, its best level since March 10 and spurred a sharp rally in JGBs. Japanese equities led the rally among the Asia Pacific markets. Europe has not been able to follow suit. It disappointed with Q1 GDP (0.1% rather than 0.2%). The Stoxx 600 is of about 0.3%, leaving it off about 1.3% this week, its first weekly loss since the middle of March. US...

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Fireside Chat about fintech & regulation in Africa🇿🇦

2023-04-27

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USDCAD backs off from topside resistance but the 100 hour MA stalls the fall

2023-04-27

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The USDCAD moved to a swing area target and 61.8 Retracement level this week and that area stalled the rise. In trading today, sellers have pushed lower but has run into support at the 100 hour MA.  So buyer and sellers have defined the close support and resistance. Traders are waiting for the next shove outside one of those technical levels.

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US GDP lower but core PCE higher. That sends yields and the USD higher in early US trading

2023-04-27

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The US GDP came in lower-than-expected but core PCE was higher. That has sent the US yields to the upside and the US dollar higher in early US trading.  However, the moves post the data, has the pair trading back to 100/200 are moving average levels in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and stalled. Those moving averages will be barometers in the new trading day. What is clear is the ups and downs have continued in those major currency pairs.

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Markets Becalmed Ahead of Key Data and BOJ Meeting Outcome

2023-04-27

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2023-04-27

Overview: Some regional bank earnings were weighing on investor sentiment but reports that the FDIC is running out of patience with First Republic Bank to strike a private deal and could decide to downgrade its assessment. This could lead to limits on its ability to use the Fed's emergency facilities. Other reports said that the bank's advisers are securing commitments to buy a new stock as part of a broader restructuring. Still, while the KBW bank...

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The EURUSD and GBPUSD rebound today. The AUDSD moves to a new year low

2023-04-26

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The EURUSD and the GBPUSD fell sharply yesterday on flight to safety flows, but in trading today, those declines are being erased.  The USDJPY chops around after yesterday saw a decline on flight to more safety into the JPY on banking concerns.  The AUDUSD is lower after YoY inflation fell more than expected in Australia today despite the slightly higher QoQ data.

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Bank Stress Hobbles the Dollar, while Dissents Make the 50 bp Hike by Sweden less than Hawkish

2023-04-26

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2023-04-26

Overview: The re-emergence of bank stress reverberated through the US markets yesterday, downgrading the perceived chances of a Fed hike next week and sending the US 2-year yield sharply lower. The yield settled 13 bp lower, the largest drop in three weeks. The risk-off sent the US dollar higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Follow-through US dollar gains today has been mostly limited to the Australian dollar, where...

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AUDUSD transit to the downside and approaches a floor area. What next?

2023-04-25

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The AUDUSD corrected higher into the Asian session today, and in the process tested the 100 hour MA. Sellers leaned against the level, and has been trending the pair lower since then. In the NY session the pair has moved below a swing area between 0.6649 and 0.66526. Stay below is more bearish going forward. The move lower has looked to approach the March 24 low at 0.6625 in the April 10 low at 0.66186. Move below that area opens the door for...

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The USD is stronger and retraces the declines from yesterday. What are the chart saying?

2023-04-25

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The USD is stronger today retracing some of the declines from yesterday's trading.  What are the charts saying?  In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep dive into the technicals supporting the price action for the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD major currency pairs.

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Risk-Off Mood Dominates

2023-04-25

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2023-04-25

Overview:  Perhaps it was the extent of First Republic Bank's loss of deposits that were reported with earnings yesterday, but risk appetites dried up today. Asia Pacific equities were trounced outside Japan today. Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there set the tone today falling 1.7%-1.9%. China's CSI 300 fell for the fifth consecutive session. Taiwan and South Korean markets fell more 1.4%-1.6%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off almost 0.5%,...

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Yen: Short Overview

2023-04-24

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2023-04-24

The yen is off about 1% this month to bring the year-to-date decline to about 2.4%. It fell by 12.2% in 2022 and 10.3% in 2021. The yen rallied against the dollar for the five preceding years. Over that five-year period the dollar fell from around JPY124 to JPY99, but it was all done in H1 16, and after a rally at the end of 2016 and very early 2017 (to about JPY118.65), the dollar ground down around JPY101. This year’s dollar low was set in...

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The Dollar Begins New Week mostly Softer

2023-04-24

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2023-04-24

Overview:  The dollar is mostly lower, led by the Swiss franc and euro. However, despite softer US rates and a victory for the LDP in local Japanese elections, the yen is trading with a softer bias. Japanese stocks recovered from the pre-weekend profit-taking seen after the Nikkei make new highs for the year. Most other large bourses in the region except Taiwan and India also moved lower. Note that China's CSI 300 fell for the fourth consecutive...

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Set yourself up for the new trading week by understanding the key levels in play

2023-04-23

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A non trending week last week, will have traders looking for more action this week. A number of major currency pairs vs the USD had very low ranges in trading last week. The non-trending nature of the price action will have traders anticipating something more in trading this week. That would involve breaks of key technical levels.  In this weekend technical report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com discusses this dynamic and outlines the levels...

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Ueda Chairs First BOJ Meeting, and US and EMU Provide First Estimate of Q1 GDP: The Week Ahead

2023-04-22

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2023-04-22

As April draws to a close, the systemic stress in the banking sector continues to subside, and the market is turning its attention to likely rate hikes by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in early May. Although, as in March, the market sees the May hike to 5.25% to be the last Fed hike. Before the bank stress, the swap market had been leaning to a 5.75% terminal rate. It is still early to fully appreciate the magnitude and duration of the...

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Making some sense technically from the up & down chop in some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-21

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The up and down chop this week in the some of the major currency pairs, has some traders frustrated (when you think it is going down it goes up and visa versa), and some traders happy (the up and down range traders).  The EURUSD and GBPUSD is non trending. The USDJPY is trying to reverse lower after reaching a key topside target on Wednesday.  To get up to speed, watch the morning technical video. Although there is some up and down volatility,...

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