Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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RBA Surprises with a Quarter-Point Hike and German Factory Orders Disappoint

2023-06-06

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2023-06-06

Overview: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised many with a quarter-point hike and German factory orders unexpectedly fell. Reports suggest that China has asked banks to cut deposit rates. The next result is the Australian dollar is the strongest currency in the G10 and helped lift the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting tomorrow. Australian stocks sold off (~1.2%) while large markets outside of China rose in the region. Europe's...

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GBPUSD stays within the hourly MA range

2023-06-05

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The US trading session started the day by falling below the 100 hour moving average(blue line in the chart) and then extending below the 200 hour moving average(green line in the chart below). The sellers were in control. However the ISM nonmanufacturing data came in weaker than expectations and the price quickly moved higher. That rally moved all the way up back to the 100 hour moving average were sellers have once again leaned. Staying below the...

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USDCHF bias shifts lower after weaker US data

2023-06-05

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What are the technicals driving the USDCHF now? A technical look at the pair.

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GBPUSD sellers taking more and more control in trading today

2023-06-05

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The GBPUSD has moved lower in trading today.  The early catalyst was getting below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). The price then moved down and below a swing area between 1.2386 and 1.2397. The 200 hour moving average is also near that area 1.23989 and is now close risk for sellers.  Stay below 1.23989 (call it 1.2400), and the sellers are more in control.

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EURUSD falls helped by weaker ISM services data today

2023-06-05

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The EURUSD is moving to a new session low in early US trading. The pair is being helped by weaker ISM services data today (and perhaps better jobs on Friday in the US - although it was mixed). Technicals are bearish below a swing area between 1.0690 and 1.0704. Stay below is more bearish today. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour MAs, tilting the bias to the downside. On the downside, the next target comes in at 1.0660 and then the...

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Dollar Gains Extended, Oil Steadies at Higher Levels after Saudi’s Cut, US Bill Deluge Begins Today

2023-06-05

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2023-06-05

Overview:  The US dollar has extended its post-employment gains today, helped by firmer rates and several countries seeing downward revisions from the preliminary May PMI. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies and most of the emerging market currencies, including Turkey, India, and China. July WTI gapped higher after the Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary and unilateral cut of one million barrels a day in output...

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Harnessing the Regression Channel for Predictive Power: Unraveling ES FUTURES PRICE FORECAST; 4400

2023-06-05

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Welcome to another insightful video on the power of technical analysis in financial markets. Today, we will unravel the magic of the Regression Channel, combined with the Fibonacci series, for predicting price movements. In this video, we first establish the importance of understanding price movement dynamics in financial markets. We then delve into how the Regression Channel, a well-known tool in technical analysis, becomes a potent predictor...

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Bitcoin technical analysis for 04 June, 2023, THE KING IS SUSTAINING

2023-06-04

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See more at ForexLive.com

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The NZDUSD buyers tried to extend higher, but failed. What now?

2023-06-03

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The buyers in the NZDUSD tried to break higher on Friday, moving above a key 200 hour MA on the hourly chart and swing level on the daily chart. However, momentum failed and the price rotated lower.  Prior to the rally on Thursday and Friday, the price did break below the 50% midpoint of the range since 2021 low on the daily chart opening the door for lower levels.  That break also failed leading the snap back rally higher.  So for the week,...

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The AUDUSD runs higher on Friday but stalls at a key level. What next?

2023-06-03

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The AUDUSD made new cycle lows this week, but bottomed midweek and moved higher on Thursday and Friday. The move back to the upside took the pair back into a "red box" that confined price action for 3-months.  The break failed. The buyers returned.  However, the run to the upside on Friday ran into resistance against the high of a swing area on the daily chart, and a key retracement level on the hourly chart (the May trading range)....

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Week Ahead: Australia and Canada–Hawkish Hold? US Bill Issuance Jumps

2023-06-03

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2023-06-03

True to the historic pattern, the US debt ceiling was used by the party not in control of the executive branch to exact spending concessions. Despite the extreme partisanship, the brinkmanship tactics, and fears that this time would be different, there was no default. As Bismarck once quipped, "Laws are like sausages and it is best not seen them being made." Still, as a consequence, the rebuilding of the Treasury's account and bill...

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USDCAD sellers take the price below key 100/200 day MAs tilting the bias to the downside

2023-06-03

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The key move technically in the USDCAD last week, was the move back below the 100 and 200 day MAs. That tilted the bias more to the downside for the pair from a technical perspective. The other thing of note from the daily chart is the convergence of the 100/200-day MAs. That is indicative of a non-trending longer-term market which could be a clue for a break outside of the range... soon. Non-trend transitions to trend.   The video will outline the...

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The week ahead: USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday, but missed.

2023-06-03

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The USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday on the break of the 200-hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. The better US jobs report started the wheels in motion for a move back to the upside. That took the price back above the 200 and 100-hour MAs in the process (at 0.90564 and 0.90718 respectively).  However, there is also key upside target resistance at 100-day MA and the 50% retracement of the 2023 trading range both at 0.9126. That level...

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GBPUSD technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-03

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The GBPUSD moved higher into the jobs report on Friday, but fell as yields moved higher and so did the USD. The GBPUSD fell to a support level on the hourly chart, but maintained hope for more upside from the look from the daily chart.  Monday should give traders some technical clues on who might win the next battle. The video will outline the key levels in play for the pair.

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USDJPY technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-02

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Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep into the technicals defining the bias, risk and key targets for the EURUSD  heading into the new trading week starting June 5, 2023. In the report, he looks at the daily chart and then drills into the hourly chart. Get your week started on the right foot by understanding what levels are key and in play for the EURUSD. .

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EURUSD technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-02

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In this video, Greg Michalowski from Forexlive.com takes a look at the technical levels that will be in play next week and explain why.

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EURGBP sellers remain in control, but some key support held this week

2023-06-02

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The EURGBP fell to the lowest level since December 2022 this week. The run lower moved into a swing area on the daily chart which has done a good job of defining resistance and support going back in time (to as far as 2021).  The holding of that level has given buyers some support to lean against. The price for the pair is higher today. Having said that, drilling into the hourly chart, the price remains below the following 100 hour moving average...

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What are driving the major USD currency pairs post US jobs report

2023-06-02

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A technical look at the levels driving the bias for the major pairs. Do you want to get your "feet under you" from a technical perspective after the US jobs report?  Take a look at this video for a review the levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD.   The jobs report largely kept the pairs between support and resistance levels. That gives teachers the opportunity to wait for the next shove and run.   Be...

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What key levels are in play for the EURUSD ahead of the US jobs report

2023-06-02

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As the market awaits the US jobs report, the EURUSD has positioned itself between key moving averages. On the topside the 100 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the range since the April high is resistance near 1.0811. On the downside the 200 hour moving average 1.07312 and the 100 hour moving average 1.07151 would need to be broken to increase a bearish bias. The current price trades between the levels at 1.0763. Flip a coin. That is what...

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US Debt Ceiling Drama Ends with a Whimper, Focus on US Jobs and Fed

2023-06-02

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2023-06-02

Overview: Another bizarre US debt-ceiling episode is over. President Biden will sign the bill that was approved by the Senate late yesterday. It is a bit anticlimactic for the market, for which the US jobs data is the key focus now. Outside of the fiscal drama, the Federal Reserve leadership has effectively push against market expectations for a hike later this month. The odds were around 70% earlier this week, and ahead of the jobs report, is...

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