Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FOMC Day. What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

2022-07-27

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The FOMC decision will be announced at 2 PM ET with expectations for a 75 basis point hike (see Adam's preview HERE).. Rate decision days can be a long drawn out affair between the rate decision and the press conference that lasts an hour. That time and running headlines can cause additional market volatility. Traders have to decide if they want to take on that additional risk. Those that do, need to fully understand the bias defining levels...

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Fed Day

2022-07-27

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2022-07-27

Overview: Better US news from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments has helped lift sentiment today and is encouraging a more risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting. News that US President Biden and China’s Xi will talk tomorrow for the second time this year may be notable but does not appear to be impactful in the capital markets.

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Google stock analysis & trade idea after earnings

2022-07-27

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Yesterday, Google reported earnings. GOOG's 3% after-hours gain after the results report reinforces the view that its 32.5 percent drop from its all-time high (in January 2021) to its most recent low (in May 2022) may be adequate. This may mean good companies have changed enough and bad ones need to shrink. The video presents a technical analysis of the Google stock, with a weekly Anchored VWAP from the COVID collapse bottom. VWAP considers...

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FOMC preview: Watch for a subtle shift

2022-07-27

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Signs of an economic slowdown are here but what will move markets on the FOMC decision are signs of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. The market can get laser-focused on the small difference between 75 basis points and 100 basis points but what ultimately matters is the terminal destination of rates. Don’t look for the Fed to say anything explicit, like that they see a peak in inflation. The Fed is missing its mandate on price stability badly...

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Bitcoin follows the key technicals that can lead to big dollar moves

2022-07-26

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In bitcoin, the most active digital currency, traders ask me if they follow technical tools like the ones I use in analyzing currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities. The answer is .....YES. Traders like to define and limit risk and certain technical tools do just that no matter the instrument. IN this video, I look at the price action of bitcoin on the daily and hourly chart and show how traders can and did, use technicals that led to some...

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VIDEO: The morning technical look at some of the major currency pairs for July 26, 2022

2022-07-26

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The USD is stronger to start the day. How has that impacted the technical picture for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD

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Greenback Jumps Back

2022-07-26

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2022-07-26

Overview: With the exception of Japan, Taiwan, and India, the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region traded higher today. The Hang Seng led the move (1.65%) amid reports that Alibaba will seek its primary listing there. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is edging higher today. If it can hold on to the gains, it will be the fourth consecutive rise, the longest advance since May. US futures are slightly under water. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly...

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EDUCATION VIDEO: Do you want to learn how to read a chart from a technical perspective?

2022-07-25

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In this video, I look at a random pair - the CADJPY - and outline what technical levels have contributed to the downs and ups for the pair. You have the opportunity to find those levels in all your charts and learn how to define and limit your risk and have the potential to benefit from that work.

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VIDEO:A technical look at some of the major currencies to start the US session on July 25, 2022

2022-07-25

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To kickstart the NY session, what has the price action in the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD showed us so far in the day.  What levels are in play.

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Greenback Softens, but Think Twice about Chasing It

2022-07-25

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2022-07-25

Overview: Aside from political economic risks, three other challenges are emerging. First, the new sub-variant of Covid is spreading rapidly. BA5 reportedly is accounting for around 80% of the new cases. It is better able to evade antibodies from vaccines and earlier infections. Hospitalization rates are also climbing. Dining, retail, and travel may be impacted. Second, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global emergency. The US...

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Stock Market Today: Updates, S&P technical analysis and stock market forecast

2022-07-25

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Asia follows Wall Street's bearish lead from Friday. Slow growth and tighter regulations affect markets. Today's losses on the Australian stock market extend yesterday's. The S&P/ASX 200 fell below 6,800 on Friday. After Snapchat's (SNAP) dismal results and stock price drop last week, investors wonder if this is a sign of bigger economic concerns. Alphabet, Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings this week. Oil fell in Asia...

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A technical look at the forex major currencies for the week starting July 25, 2022

2022-07-24

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In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.co;m, takes a look at the technical driving the forex markets for the week starting July 25,2022

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Momentum Indicators Warn of Further Dollar Weakness, but will Sellers Emerge ahead of the FOMC?

2022-07-24

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2022-07-24

The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week but pared the losses ahead of the weekend. The sub-50 EMU flash composite PMI unwound the half-cent gain the euro recorded after the ECB delivered a 50 bp hike to kick off its first tightening since 2011.  

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Bitcoin technical anlalysis & managing a profitable bitcoin short trade

2022-07-23

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We follow up on the trade idea shown here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/a-bitcoin-technical-analysis-with-a-bearish-measured-move-20220721/ And how to manage a profitable trade by adjusting a stop in order to break even within a worse case scanrio. We do that by exiting one third of the position at a new take profit target. We show the principle of calculating that. Furthermore, Bitcoin is cooling off after faking out a breakout...

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The Fed and GDP: Week Ahead

2022-07-23

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2022-07-23

The outcome of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on July 27 is the most important event in the last week of July. After a brief flirtation with a 100 bp hike after the June CPI accelerated, the market has settled back to a 75 bp move. The Fed funds futures are pricing about a 10% chance of a 100 bp hike. The market anticipates that after the second 75 bp hike, the Fed will most likely return to a 50 bp hike in September.  Fed...

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Is the USDCAD a buy from a technical perspective? BofA likes it fundamentally. Do I like technically

2022-07-22

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Marrying technicals vs fundamentals from Bank of America in the USDCAD

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The EURUSD and GBPUSD are rebounded off lows, but USDJPY remains near session low extremes

2022-07-22

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What technicals are moving the major currency pairs today

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Dismal EMU Flash PMI on Heels of First ECB Rate Hike since 2011

2022-07-22

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2022-07-22

Overview:  The euro is over a cent lower from yesterday’s peak, pressured by the drop in the flash PMI composite below 50 for the first time since early last year. More generally, the flash PMIs have shown the global economic momentum is waning, and the bond markets have responded accordingly. The US 10-year yield is flirting with 2.80%, its lowest level in more than two weeks. European yields are 15-20 bp lower and the spread between Italian and...

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What if? Traders are constantly asking “What if”, but what does that mean?

2022-07-21

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IN this video, I extend the short term EURUSD analysis to incorporate a view from the daily chart and ask "What if?". I hope you find it interesting.

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What does it mean to “lean” in your trading?. The AUDUSD price action today shows what that means.

2022-07-21

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Leaning is a key way traders enter trades, and more importantly exit trades with risk defined and limited. What does that mean. Let me show you in the this video using the AUDUSD as my guide.

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