Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Week Ahead: Firm US CPI Won’t Deter September Fed Rate Cut

2025-08-09

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2025-08-09

It seems clear that the July jobs data was an important turning point. The two dovish governor dissents from the FOMC's decision to standpat, citing not economic strength like the White House, but recognizing the weakness in the labor market, were not outliers as much as the proverbial canaries in a coal mine. The market …

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US Tariffs Roil Gold Futures, while Greenback Steadies

2025-08-08

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2025-08-08

Overview: Most the dollar's late sell-off yesterday after the White House endorsed Stephen Miran to fill the remainder of Governor Kugler's term at the Federal Reserve has been recouped today. In mostly narrow ranges, the greenback is firmer against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar and sterling. The dollar is also trading with a …

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Anticipated BOE Rate Cut Doesn’t Prevent Sterling from Pushing Higher

2025-08-07

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2025-08-07

Overview: After selling off sharply last Friday, the US dollar consolidated on Monday and Tuesday before taking another leg lower yesterday. It remains under pressure today, though it has stabilized in late European morning turnover, though even a dismal German industrial production report was unable to deter the euro from rising to almost $1.17. It …

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Consolidative Phase Continues in FX Market as Key Events Loom

2025-08-06

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2025-08-06

Overview: The US dollar's July rally came to an abrupt end last Friday and continues to mostly consolidate as new developments are awaited. In particular, the nomination for Governor Kugler's successor on the Federal Reserve Board may trigger the next act in the drama, though the market now is considerably more comfortable with the idea …

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August 2025 Monthly

2025-08-02

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2025-08-02

The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration of US growth, when looking through the trade-related distortion, and …

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Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So

2025-07-31

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2025-07-31

No commentary on Friday but August monthly drops Saturday.  Daily commentary to resume Wednesday, August 6. Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more …

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Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session

2025-07-30

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2025-07-30

Overview:  Ahead of an important North American session, the US dollar has a slightly softer tone in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars are laggards, with small losses. The yen and sterling are the strongest with around 0.2-0.3% gains. The North American session features the Bank of Canada and FOMC …

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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow’s Key Events

2025-07-29

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2025-07-29

Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American participants can extend it. We suspect that the market will turn more cautious now, ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting outcome, where many still expect at least one dovish …

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Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro

2025-07-28

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2025-07-28

Overview: The US and EU struck a trade deal that is less onerous than threatened and reduces the uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. In May, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on most EU goods, and yesterday, agreed to 15% (including autos and pharma, but not metals). There seems to be some debate over whether …

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Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth

2025-07-26

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2025-07-26

We had adopted a working hypothesis that the after recording lows in early July that the greenback was going to retrace the last leg down that began around June 23. That appeared to run its course around July 17. We anticipated last week's pullback. However, the price action warns that the dollar's upside correction may …

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The Dollar Recovers Ahead of the Weekend

2025-07-25

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2025-07-25

Overview: The greenback is firm as the week winds down. Next week could be one of the most eventful of the year, with FOMC meeting, US and eurozone Q2 GDP, US PCE deflator and jobs data, and the August 1 "reciprocal tariff" extension deadline. The recovery in US rates has seen the dollar rise toward … Continue reading »

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Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs

2025-07-24

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2025-07-24

Overview: With a US-Japanese deal in hand, and the prospects of an extended tariff truce between the US and China, many perceive some tail risks associated with the US foreign economic policy have diminished. This has encouraged the animal spirits and helped drive equity prices higher. The dollar is mixed. The uptick in Australia's PMI …

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Trade Deals Bolster Risk Appetites

2025-07-23

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2025-07-23

Overview: The US has struck a trade deal with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested the August 12 end of the US-China tariff truce will likely be extended next week. The dollar bloc leads the G10 currencies higher amid some creeping optimism, while the euro is the laggard, off about …

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Tokyo Returns and Yen Stabilizes after Yesterday’s Jump

2025-07-22

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2025-07-22

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The greenback is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside thinner traded New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone, the other currencies are mostly +/- 0.1%. Emerging market currencies are also mixed and mostly +/- 0.2%. The approaching August 1 expiration of the postponement of US "reciprocal tariffs" …

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Yen Jumps as Governing Coalition Loses Majority in Upper House

2025-07-21

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2025-07-21

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week with a softer bias, but it still needs to run the North American gauntlet, which has tended to be more constructive than other centers recently. As seemed likely, less than a year after losing its majority in the lower, the LDP and Komeito coalition lost its majority …

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Week Ahead: State of Dollar’s Correction to be Determined

2025-07-19

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2025-07-19

The US dollar rose against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies last week. But to the extent the upside correction this month has been spurred by a backing up of US rates, its recovery may be over or nearly so. The US two-year yield settled lower on the week and the 10-year yield … Continue reading...

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Waller may be Alone in Advocating July Rate Cut, but it Weighs on the Greenback

2025-07-18

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2025-07-18

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against most G10 and emerging market currencies today. The dollar seemed to lose its bid late yesterday after Federal Reserve Governor Waller argued in favor a rate cut at this month's meeting, despite the TIC data that showed foreign investors bought more US securities in May than they …

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Trial Balloon to Fire Powell went over like a Lead Zeppelin

2025-07-17

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2025-07-17

Overview: A natural experiment of sorts unfolded yesterday. Heightened speculation, fanned in part by the White House itself, that after several threats, President Trump was going to fire Fed Chair Powell. Short-term rates fell but the curve steepened, the greenback sold off sharply, and stocks skidded lower. The main narrative is that seeing the carnage, …

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USD Steadies after Yesterday’s Surge, but Does it have Legs?

2025-07-16

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2025-07-16

Overview: The dollar has steadied today after yesterday's jump. Asia and Europe do not seem to be as enthusiastic about the dollar as North America seemed to be yesterday. President Trump indicated that sectoral tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals could be announced as early as August 1. He also said that there will be …

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Greenback Slips Ahead of June CPI

2025-07-15

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2025-07-15

Overview: The US dollar is trading somewhat heavier against the G10 currencies but the Scandis today, ahead of the US CPI report. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The last few CPI readings were softer than expected, but economists continue to look for firmer price pressures. Late yesterday, the US announced a 17% tariff …

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