Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Market Sees “Escalation to De-Escalate”

2025-10-13

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2025-10-13

Overview: Neither the US nor China have backed away from the brink approached before the weekend, but many market participants have concluded that this is an "escalation to de-escalate". The foreign exchange market has unwound some of the pre-weekend price action. The dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krone, which suffered before the weekend, are firmer, while …

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Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

2025-10-11

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2025-10-11

The combination of the policy mix advocated by the woman who is most likely to become the next prime minister of Japan and a series of disappointing German economic data amid a political crisis in France helped lift US dollar. Many trend followers and short-term market participants were caught the wrong way, and the short …

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China Takes Dramatic Measures, While Japan’s MOF Warns Against Excessive Yen Moves

2025-10-10

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2025-10-10

 Overview: The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's surge. Following words of caution by Japan's finance minister, the yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, with around a 0.15% gain. The slowest underlying inflation in Norway in four months has weighted on the krone, which is off about 0.35%. Excluding the krone, the …

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North American Leadership Awaited in FX

2025-10-09

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2025-10-09

Overview: There was some, albeit limited follow-through dollar buying today, but the early gains have been pared as the European morning progressed. That leaves the greenback narrowly mixed among the G10 currencies, with the Scandis, sterling, and the New Zealand dollar underperforming. North American leadership is awaited. Emerging market currencies are also mixed. News that …

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Dollar Jumps by Default

2025-10-08

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2025-10-08

The US dollar's recovery accelerated today, and it has not deterred gold from surging through the $4000-mark in the spot market. With the US government still shut and no apparent negotiations to end it, greenback's gains seem to be a reflection of poor developments elsewhere.

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The Greenback Remains Bid

2025-10-07

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2025-10-07

Overview: The dollar has come back bid. It is trading near session highs late in the European morning. The French crisis has not been resolved and the policy mix advocated by the new head of the LDP and soon-to-be prime minister continues to weigh on the yen. The US government remains closed, and the White … Continue reading »

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Dollar Driven Higher by Japan’s LDP Choice as next Leader and Prime Minister and the Collapse of the French Government

2025-10-06

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2025-10-06

Overview: There are two main drivers today. The outcome of Japan's LDP leadership contest means Japan will have its first woman prime minister, She espouses the traditional LDP policy mix of expansionary fiscal policy and advocates easy monetary policy. The yen was sent reeling as were Japanese bonds, where the 40-year yield surged 15 bp …

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Week Ahead: US Government Remains Closed, China is on Extended Holiday, and Markets Hardly Notice

2025-10-04

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2025-10-04

The US federal government was forced to close by the inability of Congress to pass a single appropriations bill for the new fiscal year that began October 1. Despite the disruption for government workers and their families, and in projects, which the White House has targeted opposition-led states, the capital markets barely took notice, except …

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The Dollar Limps into the Weekend

2025-10-03

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2025-10-03

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer but most inside yesterday's ranges. An unexpected jump in Japanese unemployment has weighed on the yen, which is the only G10 currency that is not gaining on the dollar today. The soft greenback means the Canadian dollar is likely under-performing and it is barely firmer on the day. … Continue...

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Quiet Foreign Exchange Market in which the Greenback Struggles to Find Traction

2025-10-02

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2025-10-02

Overview: The dollar is soft and trading near session lows in late European morning turnover. The news stream is light and large parts of the US federal government remain closed. China's mainland markets are on holiday. Among the G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar remains the laggard in a soft greenback environment. Most emerging market currencies …

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Markets Take US Government Shutdown in Stride

2025-10-01

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2025-10-01

Overview: The US federal government is under partial closure following the inability to approve appropriations to start the new fiscal year. The president has threatened to permanently fire not just furlough many "non-essential" government workers, but note that as of yesterday, some 150k federal workers have accepted the government's buyout. The longest shutdown in this …

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US Government Shut Down looks Nearly Inevitable

2025-09-30

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2025-09-30

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer against the G10 currencies and emerging market currencies. The hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia has helped lift the Australian dollar almost 0.5% to a four-day high above $0.6700. The Japanese yen is up nearly as much despite poor industrial production and retail sales data. A …

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USD Extends Pre-Weekend Pullback, but may Find Better Bid in North America

2025-09-29

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2025-09-29

Overview: The US dollar is extending the pullback seen ahead of the weekend. It is softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and, perhaps, some US participants will want to wait to see the outcome of President Trump's meeting with Democratic leaders in …

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October 2025 Monthly

2025-09-27

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2025-09-27

October brings a convergence of pivotal events on both the economic and geopolitical fronts, shaping a volatile global outlook. From looming tariff battles in Washington and monetary policy decisions in Frankfurt to military posturing in Eastern Europe and high-level political signaling in Beijing, this month may set the tone for the final stretch of 2025 and beyond. 

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Markets Digest a Bevy of New US Levies

2025-09-26

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2025-09-26

Overview: The dollar rallied in North America yesterday and the foreign exchange market seems to be waiting for its leadership again today. Against the G10 currencies, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges near yesterday's best levels without advancing. The dollar is mixed against the major currencies but is not much more than +/- 0.15%. …

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Greenback Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains

2025-09-25

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2025-09-25

Overview: The foreign exchange market is becalmed today. The greenback is in narrow ranges with a slightly softer bias against most of the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. The news stream is light, and the leadership of the North American market seems awaited. The US announced a new sectoral investigation into …

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Dollar Finds Traction

2025-09-24

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2025-09-24

Overview: After rallying in the second half of last week, the dollar spent the last two sessions consolidating at lower levels. It has come back bid today amid light news. The greenback is 0.25%-0.50% firmer against the G10 currencies. The exception is the Australian dollar, which is holding on to small gains, inspired by the … Continue...

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The Greenback Struggles to Find Traction, including Against the Swedish Krona Despite Surprise Rate Cut by the Riksbank

2025-09-23

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2025-09-23

Overview: The dollar's rally beginning during the Federal Reserve's press conference last week stalled yesterday, and the greenback is mostly heavier today. Despite Sweden's unexpected rate cut, the krona is leading the G10 currencies higher. The flash September PMIs mostly softened but the impact has been minimal. Fed Chair Powell speaks shortly after noon ET …

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After Marginal Extension of Last Week’s Gains, the US Dollar is Mostly Softer Ahead of the North American Open

2025-09-22

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2025-09-22

Overview: After finishing last week with a bid tone, the US dollar's gains were initially extended against most G10 currencies before a mild bout of profit-taking emerged. It was extended in the European morning but may stall in North America. Several pairs have options near today's highs that expire at 10:00 AM ET. The US …

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Week Ahead: Greenback’s Correction can Extend

2025-09-20

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2025-09-20

The US dollar fell through the first part of last week and lows for the year against several G10 currencies were set in the initial reaction to the rate cut by the FOMC. However, Chair Powell press conference and a look at the Summary of Economic Projections were not as dovish the rate cut and … Continue reading »

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