Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Euro Parity Holds ahead of US CPI

2022-07-13

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2022-07-13

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating with a slight downside bias ahead of the June CPI report. The euro held above $1.00 but is still pinned in the trough. The rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand failed to have much impact.

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Euro Tests Parity

2022-07-12

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2022-07-12

Equities remain under pressure as investors contemplate tighter financial conditions and the risks of recession. Most of the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region sold-off, led by a 2.7% drop in Taiwan.

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Monday Blues

2022-07-11

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2022-07-11

Overview:  The US dollar is bid against most currencies today, encouraged not just by good news in the US and poor news out of China, where Covid is flaring up and new social restrictions are fared, while Macau has been lockdown for a week.

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Pendulum of Sentiment Swings Back against Imminent Recession Fears Despite Curve Inversion

2022-07-10

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2022-07-10

High political drama in recent days included the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe and the resignation of UK Prime Minister Johnson. Yet, the capital markets in general, and the currency market in particular, were not roiled.

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FX Daily, July 8: Abe’s Assassination Shocks the World

2022-07-08

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2022-07-08

News that former Prime Minister Abe was assassinated while campaigning in Japan ahead of the weekend election shocked the nation and world. The immediate market impact looks minimal. Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced.

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Johnson Resigns, but Still not Clear if He Controls the Timing

2022-07-07

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2022-07-07

Overview: The resignation of a UK prime minister makes for high political drama, but the markets hardly moved on it. Sterling, like most of the major currencies, are recovering against the dollar today.

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The Dollar Remains Bid, while Sterling Shrugs Off Johnson’s Political Woes

2022-07-06

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2022-07-06

Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday making new highs against most of the major currencies, including the euro, sterling, the dollar-bloc and the Scandis. The yen and Swiss franc held in better, but the greenback still closed firmly against the yen despite a six-basis point decline in the 10-year yield.

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The Dollar Jumps and the Euro Slips under $1.03

2022-07-05

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2022-07-05

Overview: The dollar is soaring today, and the euro is trading at new 22-year lows having traded below $1.03. Even a 50 bp hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has failed to prevent a sharp drop in the Australian dollar.

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What Happened Today in a Few Bullet Points

2022-07-04

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2022-07-04

1. The most important thing to appreciate is that the market has moved to price not one but two cuts next year.  The first is priced into the September Fed funds futures and the second is in the Dec Fed funds futures. 

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Macro and Prices

2022-07-02

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2022-07-02

(Combining the weekend macro commentary and price action review in one note.  Check out the July monthly.) Three economic reports highlight the week ahead:  Japan's labor cash earnings at the start of the week and the US employment report and China's CPI at the end of the week.

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Stocks Hit as Central Banks Brandish Anti-Inflation Efforts

2022-06-30

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2022-06-30

Overview: Central banks are committed to combatting inflation even as the economies weaken. This is taking a toll on investor sentiment and is dragging down equities.

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Spanish Inflation Shocks

2022-06-29

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2022-06-29

Overview: The sharp sell-off in US equities yesterday, led by tech, is weighing on today’s activity. Most of the large Asia Pacific markets excluding Japan and India lost more than 1% today.

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No Turn Around Tuesday

2022-06-28

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2022-06-28

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific extended yesterday’s gain. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the third consecutive session and is near two-and-a-half week highs.

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Consolidation in FX Featured

2022-06-27

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2022-06-27

Overview: The strong equity market rally seen at the end of last week is carrying into today’s activity. Most of the large markets in Asia Pacific rose by at least 1%.

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The Dollar: Don’t Get too Far Ahead of the Story

2022-06-26

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2022-06-26

The most important development in foreign exchange probably took place in the interest rate market last week. A series of disappointing US economic data and the Fed's "unconditional" commitment to rein in inflation have heightened concerns that economic weakness will limit the Fed's ability to hike rates. 

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The End Game Approaches

2022-06-25

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2022-06-25

The pendulum of market sentiment swings dramatically.  It has swung from nearly everyone and their sister complaining that the Federal Reserve was lagging behind the surge in prices to fear of a recession.

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Risk Appetites Improve Ahead of the Weekend

2022-06-24

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2022-06-24

Overview: Equities are higher and bonds lower as the week's activity winds down. Asia Pacific markets rallied, paced by more than 2% gains in Hong Kong and South Korea.

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Johnson’s Ability to Lead Tories into Victory at Risk with Today’s By-Elections

2022-06-23

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2022-06-23

Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Gains were recorded in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and India, among the large markets, while Japan was mostly flat and South Korea and Taiwan shares fell.

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Risk Appetites are Fickle

2022-06-22

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2022-06-22

Overview: Yesterday’s strong US equity gains failed to carry over into today’s session. Japanese and Australian shares fared the best among the large Asia Pacific market, with the Nikkei off less than 0.4% and the ASX off less than 0.25%.

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Equities Jump, Dollar Slips, and European Yields Drop

2022-06-21

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2022-06-21

Stocks are rallying. Nearly all the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose with China being the noted exception.

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