Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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USD Bounces into the End of the Week

2025-11-28

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2025-11-28

Overview: The US dollar is trading firmer against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen is the best performer, and it is virtually flat despite the swing toward BOJ hike next month. Expectations have steadied for a Fed cut next month around 80%. The November inflation reports from the largest eurozone members failed to inspire … Continue...

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Reeve’s Budget and US Beige Book Still to Come after Market Swings toward a Fed Cut and PBOC validates Stronger Yuan

2025-11-26

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2025-11-26

Overview: The US dollar is mostly lower today. The pendulum has shifted hard in favor of a rate cut next month and this has taken the wind from the dollar's sails. The New Zealand dollar is leading today's move after the central bank cut rates for perhaps the last time in the cycle. The Australian …

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Trump Speaks with Xi and Takaichi but Chinese-Japanese Tensions Remain High

2025-11-25

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2025-11-25

Overview:   The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It leads the major currencies with around a 0.35% gain as the dollar slips to a four-day low near JPY156 after peaking last week slightly shy of JPY158. The dollar-bloc currencies join the Swiss franc and …

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Dollar Consolidates to Start the New Week

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

Overview: The reassessment of the outlook for next month's FOMC meeting, spurred by comments before the weekend by the NY Fed president has been sustained today but the impact on the dollar is not so clear. The greenback is mixed, with the European currencies, for the most part, doing better than the dollar bloc and … Continue...

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Week Ahead: Will Renewed Speculation of Fed Cut Next Month Cap the Greenback?

2025-11-22

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2025-11-22

All of the G10 currencies weakened against the dollar last week, and six fell by more than 1%. With the help of an explicit threat to intervene by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the yen bounced almost 0.7% before the weekend and lifted off the 10-month low. The Swiss franc was the weakest of the major … Continue...

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Risk-Off Friday

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

Overview: The sharp fall in global equities after the stunning reversal in the US yesterday is the main development today. The largest markets in the Asia Pacific region fell more than 2% today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off more than 1%. It is selling off for the sixth session in the past seven. After posting … Continue reading »

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Euro Stabilizes above $1.15, while the Yen Remains Vulnerable

2025-11-20

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2025-11-20

Overview:  The US dollar is little changed against most of the G10 currencies as the North American session is about to get underway. There were some follow-through greenback gains after yesterday's advance but limited. The dollar's rally against the yen continued. It reached almost JPY157.80 before pulling back to around JPY157.10, where it found support …

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The Japanese Yen Continues to Fall

2025-11-19

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2025-11-19

Overview: The US dollar is firmer today. It has reached a new ten-month high against the yen, a little above JPY156 and the euro saw a five-day low near $1.1565. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new high for the month. The news stream is light. UK's … Continue reading »

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Equities Wish it were Turn Around Tuesday as Rout Continues and No Relief for the Yen

2025-11-18

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2025-11-18

Overview: A sell-off in equities is continuing while the foreign exchange market is quiet with the greenback confined mostly to narrow ranges. It is firmer against most currencies, though the dollar bloc is the most resilient today. The dollar reached a new nine-month high against the yen. Despite some escalating rhetoric from the MOF, the …

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Downgraded Chances of Fed Cut Next Month Help Underpin the Greenback

2025-11-17

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2025-11-17

Overview: The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans, leading the move with around 0.25% losses. Rising tensions between Japan and China, coupled with shift in expectations away from a Fed cut and a BOJ hike next month keeps the dollar within strike distance of JPY155, where $1.4 …

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Week Ahead: US Data Resumes and Shifting Central Bank Outlooks

2025-11-15

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2025-11-15

Last week will be recalled as the end of the longest government shutdown in US history. Despite the poor optics and disruptions for many, the lasting impact is likely to be marginal though the shutdown may weigh on Q4 economic activity. Nevertheless, perhaps swayed the comments of most of the 14 Fed officials that spoke …

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Sterling and Gilts Weighed Down by UK Government Budget Shift

2025-11-14

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2025-11-14

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias today but is mostly within yesterday's range. There are four developments to note. First, China's October data mostly disappointed, but the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since October 2024. Second, the UK government reportedly has shifted strategies to focus on …

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US Dollar Remains Soft Despite Disappointing UK Growth and Eurozone Industrial Output

2025-11-13

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2025-11-13

Overview: The US dollar is trading heavier against most of the world's currencies today. Better than expected Australian employment data, which boosts speculation that the central bank's easing cycle is over, helps explain the Australian dollar's gain to its best level of the month. However, sterling is firm and extended yesterday's gains despite news that …

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Yen Slumps but Material Intervention Still Seems Unlikely, Sterling Holds $1.31, and PBOC Fix USD at New Low

2025-11-12

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2025-11-12

Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating in narrow ranges against the major currencies. The notable exception is the Japanese yen, which has slumped to a new nine-month low as the greenback approached JPY155. Despite repeated warnings by Japan's finance minister, the market seems undaunted. Actual material intervention seems unlikely, especially outside of Tokyo markets. …

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Yen and Sterling Weakness Featured

2025-11-11

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2025-11-11

Overview: The US dollar is mixed.  Sterling is the weakest of the G10 currencies after unexpectedly poor employment reported boosted chances of rate cut next month.  The dollar also made marginal new high against the Japanese yen since February, but so far has remained below JPY154.50.  The dollar-bloc currencies are softer while the Scandis are …

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Deal to Re-Open the US Government Helps Boost Risk Appetites

2025-11-10

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2025-11-10

Overview: The prospect that the longest US government shutdown in history may end in the next few days has bolstered risk appetites, driven equities broadly higher and left the dollar non-plussed. The greenback is mixed against the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen, which appears have been dragged lower by the jump in US rates. The …

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Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired

2025-11-08

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2025-11-08

The markets were not impressed with the ADP private sector jobs estimate. Although it increased for the first time since July, the average over the three months through October was 3.3k, the weakest since August 2020. The Dollar Index snapped a five-day advance after the mid-week report and will begin the new week with a … Continue...

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Equities Slide, the Greenback is Bid, while the Yen Recovers with more Verbal Intervention

2025-11-04

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2025-11-04

Business travel will interrupt the commentary for the remainder of the week.  The next update will be the weekly commentary on November 8.  Good luck to us all.   Overview: Tumbling equities and softer yields mark a risk-off session. The US dollar, though, is mostly higher. Among the G10 currencies, it took another round of verbal …

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Greenback is Firm: Government Still Closed

2025-11-03

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2025-11-03

Overview: The US dollar is beginning the new month on a firm note. It has edged higher against most currencies. Among the G10, the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone are leading the pack with negligible gains. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso's gain of around 0.15% puts its atop the complex. The news stream …

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November 2025 Monthly

2025-11-01

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2025-11-01

The world economy is limping into November 2025, buffeted by geopolitical crosswinds, policy fragmentation, and structural shifts that defy easy categorization. Despite record highs in many equity markets, beneath the surface, the global order is being re-engineered—one export restriction, cyberattack, and parliamentary deadlock at a time.US-China Tensions Move Away from the Immediate BrinkLet’s start with …

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