Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Flat September CPI Boosts Speculation of a BOE Rate Cut While Weighing on Sterling

2025-10-22

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2025-10-22

Overview: The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed among the G10 currencies. Sterling is the exception, and it is off about 0.35% after the softer than expected CPI spurred speculation of a rate cut. The 10-year Gilt yield is off seven basis points while most European bond yields are narrowly mixed, less than one basis …

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Yen Sold as Takaichi becomes Japan’s Prime Minister

2025-10-21

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2025-10-21

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer today as its pullback from last week's highs is retraced. Although the US 10-year yield is spending more time below the 4.0% floor, the yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.70%, as Takaichi became Japan's first woman prime minister and the many investors are …

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Eerie Calm in the Foreign Exchange Market

2025-10-20

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2025-10-20

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet, and the US dollar is slightly softer against most of the G10 currencies, though the Australian and Canadian dollar are struggling. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The market seems optimistic that the US-China trade tensions can de-escalate with Beijing re-assigning Li Chenggang who apparently annoyed the …

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Week Ahead: Impasses Between US and China and Between Republicans and Democrats

2025-10-18

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2025-10-18

There are several moving pieces in the broad macro story that are not going to be resolved in coming days. Although President Trump is playing down a "trade war" with China, it is difficult to see the basis for a deal when he meets with China's Xi at the end of the month in South … Continue reading »

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Fear Grips the Capital Markets

2025-10-17

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2025-10-17

Overview: The pendulum between fear and greed is swinging toward the former today. The large write-downs at a couple of US regional banks follow high-profile collapses of Tricolor and First Brands. They play on fears of mounting late-cycle stress. US bank reserves have also fallen through a key threshold ($3 trillion) and some fear a …

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Thoughts on the Dollar

2025-10-16

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2025-10-16

Most investors don’t have direct exposure to the currency mix that makes up the Dollar Index (DXY), but that doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant. Far from it. DXY offers a useful lens through which to view the broader forces shaping the dollar’s direction. And because it’s an index, it tends to trend more clearly than the … Continue reading...

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FX Moves Tentatively, While Equities and Gold Continue to March Higher

2025-10-16

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2025-10-16

Overview: The US dollar is mostly a little softer ahead of the start of the North American session. Participants do not seem to have much short-term conviction amid the heightened tensions between the US and China and wary of political developments in France and Japan. Against several pairs, the greenback has frayed its recent ranges …

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US Dollar Returns Offered While Bonds and Stocks Rally, Gold’s Ascent Continues

2025-10-15

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2025-10-15

Overview: The dollar is heavy today. It is weaker against nearly all the world's currencies. The ongoing elevated trade tensions between the US and China continue to be the main talking point today. US rates were soft before Fed Chair Powell spoke yesterday and remain soft, at the same moment when market participants seem to …

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No Relaxation of US-China Tensions, Japanese Political Challenges, and a Rise in UK Unemployment, Send Ripples Through the Capital Markets

2025-10-14

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2025-10-14

Overview: The markets wanted to believe that the President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent were right, China overreacted with the broadening and tightening of export licensing requirements for critical materials and de-escalation would result. But this does not seem to be the case. The risk-off mood has sent stocks tumbling and bonds rallying. The dollar …

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Market Sees “Escalation to De-Escalate”

2025-10-13

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2025-10-13

Overview: Neither the US nor China have backed away from the brink approached before the weekend, but many market participants have concluded that this is an "escalation to de-escalate". The foreign exchange market has unwound some of the pre-weekend price action. The dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krone, which suffered before the weekend, are firmer, while …

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Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

2025-10-11

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2025-10-11

The combination of the policy mix advocated by the woman who is most likely to become the next prime minister of Japan and a series of disappointing German economic data amid a political crisis in France helped lift US dollar. Many trend followers and short-term market participants were caught the wrong way, and the short …

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China Takes Dramatic Measures, While Japan’s MOF Warns Against Excessive Yen Moves

2025-10-10

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2025-10-10

 Overview: The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's surge. Following words of caution by Japan's finance minister, the yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, with around a 0.15% gain. The slowest underlying inflation in Norway in four months has weighted on the krone, which is off about 0.35%. Excluding the krone, the …

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North American Leadership Awaited in FX

2025-10-09

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2025-10-09

Overview: There was some, albeit limited follow-through dollar buying today, but the early gains have been pared as the European morning progressed. That leaves the greenback narrowly mixed among the G10 currencies, with the Scandis, sterling, and the New Zealand dollar underperforming. North American leadership is awaited. Emerging market currencies are also mixed. News that …

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Dollar Jumps by Default

2025-10-08

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2025-10-08

The US dollar's recovery accelerated today, and it has not deterred gold from surging through the $4000-mark in the spot market. With the US government still shut and no apparent negotiations to end it, greenback's gains seem to be a reflection of poor developments elsewhere.

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The Greenback Remains Bid

2025-10-07

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2025-10-07

Overview: The dollar has come back bid. It is trading near session highs late in the European morning. The French crisis has not been resolved and the policy mix advocated by the new head of the LDP and soon-to-be prime minister continues to weigh on the yen. The US government remains closed, and the White … Continue reading »

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Dollar Driven Higher by Japan’s LDP Choice as next Leader and Prime Minister and the Collapse of the French Government

2025-10-06

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2025-10-06

Overview: There are two main drivers today. The outcome of Japan's LDP leadership contest means Japan will have its first woman prime minister, She espouses the traditional LDP policy mix of expansionary fiscal policy and advocates easy monetary policy. The yen was sent reeling as were Japanese bonds, where the 40-year yield surged 15 bp …

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Week Ahead: US Government Remains Closed, China is on Extended Holiday, and Markets Hardly Notice

2025-10-04

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2025-10-04

The US federal government was forced to close by the inability of Congress to pass a single appropriations bill for the new fiscal year that began October 1. Despite the disruption for government workers and their families, and in projects, which the White House has targeted opposition-led states, the capital markets barely took notice, except …

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The Dollar Limps into the Weekend

2025-10-03

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2025-10-03

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer but most inside yesterday's ranges. An unexpected jump in Japanese unemployment has weighed on the yen, which is the only G10 currency that is not gaining on the dollar today. The soft greenback means the Canadian dollar is likely under-performing and it is barely firmer on the day. … Continue...

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Quiet Foreign Exchange Market in which the Greenback Struggles to Find Traction

2025-10-02

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2025-10-02

Overview: The dollar is soft and trading near session lows in late European morning turnover. The news stream is light and large parts of the US federal government remain closed. China's mainland markets are on holiday. Among the G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar remains the laggard in a soft greenback environment. Most emerging market currencies …

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Markets Take US Government Shutdown in Stride

2025-10-01

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2025-10-01

Overview: The US federal government is under partial closure following the inability to approve appropriations to start the new fiscal year. The president has threatened to permanently fire not just furlough many "non-essential" government workers, but note that as of yesterday, some 150k federal workers have accepted the government's buyout. The longest shutdown in this …

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