Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Sweden’s Riksbank Prepares for Intervention

2016-01-04

by

2016-01-04

Many countries may look with envy upon Sweden.  Growth last year was probably around 3%, with household consumption rising a little more than 2%.   Its current account surplus is 7.5% of GDP.  Exports were up by 4.3%.  Its budget deficit is around 1% of GDP.    Earlier today Sweden reported its manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 …

Read More »

Europe’s Banking Union Begins Taking Shape

2016-01-04

by

2016-01-04

The knock-on effects of the meltdown in Chinese shares and the tension among major Middle East rivals are dominating the re-opening of the global capital markets after the New Year holiday.  The US dollar has recouped its earlier losses against t...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-01-04

by

2016-01-04

Brazil reports December trade later today.  Exports are expected at -1% y/y and imports at -35% y/y.  That would result in a $6.1 bln surplus, one of the largest on record.  Brazil then reports November IP Thursday, and is expected at -10.3% y/y vs. ...

Read More »

Dramatic Start to the New Year

2016-01-04

by

2016-01-04

The markets are in turmoil.   Global equity markets are sharply lower, dragging bond yields down.  The risk-off move has propelled the yen sharply higher.  Its 1.4% advance has seen the dollar slump to JPY118.70, its lowest level since-mid-October. The dollar is also weaker against the euro (~0.65%) and sterling (~0.25%).  However, the dollar-bloc has been …

Read More »

Dollar: State of Play

2016-01-03

by

2016-01-03

The start of a new calendar year does not necessarily mean the rise of new market drivers.   In fact, the key issues investors face at the start of 2016 are the same that dominated Q4 2015.   These issues center around pace of Fed tightening, the outlook for the world's second largest economy and its … Continue reading »

Read More »

The Dollar’s Technical Tone at the Start of the New Year

2016-01-02

by

2016-01-02

The US dollar firmed against nearly all the major currencies in the last week of 2015.  The exceptions were the Antipodean currencies and the Japanese yen. The relatively high short-term yields offered Australia, and New Zealand may have attract...

Read More »

New Year Reads Five

2015-12-31

by

2015-12-31



Read More »

2015 Draws to a Close

2015-12-31

by

2015-12-31

Many financial centers in Asia and Europe are on holiday today, and those that are open, are experiencing a minimum of activity.  Turnover may pick up briefly in the North American morning, but conditions will remain thin and only those who need to transact will.   The US reports weekly jobless claims and the Chicago PMI.   … Continue reading...

Read More »

Yen is Lower for Fourth Year, Euro for Second

2015-12-30

by

2015-12-30

The US dollar will finish 2015 higher against both the euro and yen.  Sometimes those of us who follow the economic and financial news closely can get caught up with the short-term fluctuations.  As traders that is what we do.  . Investors, however, can take a longer look at developments.   Taking a step back, … Continue reading »

Read More »

Quiet but Choppy Markets as Activity Winds Down

2015-12-30

by

2015-12-30

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed in uneventful and light turnover. The euro has been confined to less than a third of a cent range. Yesterday it briefly dipped below its 20-day moving average for the first time since the ECB met earlier this month. It remains in the … Continue reading »

Read More »

US-European Threat Perceptions Diverge

2015-12-30

by

2015-12-30

The trajectories of the monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are diverging.  It is the keystone of our anticipation of further euro weakness in the year ahead.  In addition to this monetary divergence, there is a...

Read More »

Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar View and Comparative Inflation

2015-12-30

by

2015-12-30

I had the privilege of talking with Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on Bloomberg TV. They gave me an opportunity to discuss my big picture view of the dollar and the Obama dollar rally. While the Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix, and the Clinton dollar rally was driven by the tech … Continue reading »

Read More »

Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower

2015-12-29

by

2015-12-29

Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, though the South African rand is slightly firmer. The Russian ruble's decline has been extended into the fourth sessions and brings its loss this month to 8.5%, the worst performing emerging market currenc...

Read More »

Three Rate Differentials to Note

2015-12-28

by

2015-12-28

During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual.  Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture.   We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative.     Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we expect the …

Read More »

Weaker Commodities and Stocks, Firm Bonds, Mixed Dollar

2015-12-28

by

2015-12-28

News Japanese data disappointed.  November industrial output fell 1.0%, twice what the consensus expected. It was the first decline in three-months.   However, due to base effect, the year-over-year rate improved to 1.6% from -1.4% in October. The in...

Read More »

Dollar Outlook for the Last Week of the Year

2015-12-26

by

2015-12-26

~

Read More »

Good Holiday Reads

2015-12-24

by

2015-12-24

1.  Outlook for 20162. Interesting comparative look at consumer inflation (US, UK, Japan, and EMU)3. Great Graphic illustrating the refugee/asylum migration to Europe4. Great Graphic depicting how US stocks trade in December for past two decades5.  The behavior of cartels and the outlook for oil

Read More »

Hump Day Update

2015-12-23

by

2015-12-23

The thinness of the order-driven capital markets is making price action that seems more inexplicable than usual.  The US dollar is mixed. It has recouped all the ground it lows against the euro yesterday, as the single currency briefly dipped below $1.09 in the North American morning.  It was unable to build on yesterday's gains that … Continue reading...

Read More »

Tuesday’s Highlights

2015-12-23

by

2015-12-23

1.  China's Central Economic Work Conference is responsible for setting the annual GDP target. Although it was not formally announced, President Xi previously indicated that the goal for the economy to expand by around 6.5% a year through 2020.  More telling than the GDP target is the intentions expressed in the new slogan:  flexible monetary policy, …

Read More »

A Few Takeaways

2015-12-21

by

2015-12-21

1.  The election in Spain did not lift the uncertainty but re-redoubled it.  Given the outcome, it is difficult envision a majority government.  Purely looking at the numbers, a coalition between the Popular Party and the Socialists is simplest...

Read More »