Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Sunday’s Election Prospects Weigh on the Yen

2026-02-04

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2026-02-04

The dollar enjoys a broadly firmer today, but it is mostly consolidating. The Japanese yen is a notable exception. The greenback reached JPY156.85, its best level since January 23 and does not look as if it has peaked. Sunday’s election is around the corner and polls show Prime Minister Takaichi leading the LDP to a … Continue...

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Reserve Bank of Australia Hikes Rates and Sees Another this Year

2026-02-03

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2026-02-03

The sense of anxiety that hung over the capital markets eased today. Equity markets are higher and the meltdown in gold and silver brought in new buying. The US dollar is mostly a little softer, but its upside correction does not appear over. Most emerging market currencies are firmer today, led by the unlikely Indian …

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Monday Blues: Precious Metals are Less Precious

2026-02-02

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2026-02-02

The dollar begins the new week and new month in a mixed fashion. There have been some follow-through gains after the pre-weekend jump, but a consolidative tone has emerged. The greenback is holding on to gains against the Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Swiss franc. It is nearly flat against the yen. Emerging market currencies …

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February 2026 Monthly

2026-01-31

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2026-01-31

The revival of the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine under President Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" marks a turning point in U.S. foreign policy. Washington reportedly carried out hundreds of airstrikes across seven countries in 2025, from Yemen to Nigeria. The new year began with the forcible removal of Venezuela's strongman Maduro and threatening to take …

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Dollar Stalls after Bouncing on Speculation Warsh to Get Nod for Fed’s Helm

2026-01-30

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2026-01-30

The market reacted dramatically to media reports that Kevin Warsh will be nominated today to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the held of the US central bank. On one hand, Warsh is perceived to be a hawk, but on the other hand, there is little doubt that the Trump administration seeks lower interest rates. …

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Dollar Gyrations but Little Changed ahead of the North American Session

2026-01-29

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2026-01-29

The market extended the greenback’s recovery when Treasury Secretary Bessent told the CNBC audience that the US always supports a strong dollar. However, the market was not fully buying it from the administration, which seemed to offer verbal support for Japan at the end of last week, and the president saying he was unconcerned about …

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US Dollar Retraces Some of Yesterday’s Dramatic Losses

2026-01-28

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2026-01-28

President Trump's comments sent the dollar spiraling lower yesterday. His lack of concern about the dollar after it has been falling sharply in recent days played on market fears that the administration wants a weaker dollar. It follows on the heels of what appears to have been tantamount to verbal intervention to support the yen …

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Greenback Mostly Consolidates, while Yen Gyrations Point to Nervous Market

2026-01-27

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2026-01-27

The greenback is mostly softer against the G10 currencies today. Initial gains had carried the dollar to almost JPY154.90 before a large order, market nervousness over intervention saw a quick drop in early European turnover through yesterday’s lows (~JPY153.30) to about JPY153.20 before steadying. Dollar sentiment is poor amid fear of intervention and a new …

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Dollar Sold Broadly, while Yen Soars on Fear of Joint Intervention

2026-01-26

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2026-01-26

The US dollar came under strong selling pressure at the start of today’s trading. The fear of joint intervention after the pre-weekend Fed checking on rates, ostensibly on behalf of the US Treasury, and underscored by Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Takaichi. Meanwhile, another tragic ICE related death in Minnesota has sparked a threat from …

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Week Ahead: Standpat Fed, Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, while Cat-and-Mouse with Officials on Yen Continues

2026-01-24

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2026-01-24

President Trump backed away from threatening to use force to acquire Greenland and dropped the tariffs on several European countries slated to go into effect on February 1. Europe's threat to break from the recent trade agreement with the US was also rescinded. After a rough start to the week, another source of market stress, …

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BOJ Maintains Steady Policy, Heightened Intervention Watch, while PBOC sets Dollar Fix Below CNY7.0

2026-01-23

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2026-01-23

The dollar is mixed as the last North American session of the week gets underway. As widely expected, the Bank of Japan left rates on hold and the gyrations of the yen immediately afterward gave rise to some speculation of material intervention. We are a bit skeptical but recognize the heightened verbal intervention and the …

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A Collective Sigh of Relief

2026-01-22

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2026-01-22

The two sources of strain on the global capital markets have eased. President Trump has backed away from military threats to take Greenland and will not go forward with tariff threat on European countries for February 1. After a dramatic sell-off on Tuesday, which some compared to what happened to the UK under Prime Minister Truss, the Japanese bond market recovered for the second consecutive session.

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Eerie and Nervous Calm in Capital Markets

2026-01-21

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2026-01-21

There are many moving pieces and Japan’s finance minister call for market calm seemed to help. Japan’s 30- and 40-year yields fell around 15 bp today after yesterday’s surge. There is a fragile calm in the capital markets today, and the dollar is mostly consolidating against the G10 currencies.

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Drama Unfolds: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar have Been Sold

2026-01-20

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2026-01-20

The markets are reacting dramatically to recent developments. Stocks and bonds have been sold, gold and silver are at record highs, and the US dollar has been sold aggressively. President Trump is in Davos and has not relented on his demand for Greenland and he seeks to cajole others into joining the board to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza.

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Greenback Slips Amid Heightened Tensions over Greenland

2026-01-19

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2026-01-19

The US stepped up its attempt to secure Greenland for national security purposes, even though it has reduced its presence there. The latest attempt included a threat to impose 10% tariffs on several EU countries starting next month and would rise to 25% in June. This is too much for many EU countries and some …

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Week Ahead: Dollar’s Upside Correction Since around Christmas may be in the Final Phase

2026-01-17

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2026-01-17

The US dollar mostly consolidated against the G10 currencies last week, though the combination of firm data and the shrugging off of the latest administration attempt to influence Fed policy gave it a firmer bias.  Japanese officials have taken several steps up the intervention ladder with verbal threats and this has stabilized the yen, without …

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US Dollar Finishing Week Softly but Within Consolidative Ranges

2026-01-16

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2026-01-16

The US dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies, but the general consolidation seen this week continues. Japanese officials continued their verbal intervention, and with the US holiday on Monday, the risk of material intervention is seen as greater, and some yen shorts have covered. News that Machado has given the Nobel Peace Prize …

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The Dollar is Firm but Consolidating

2026-01-15

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2026-01-15

The consolidation phase in the dollar continues today. Relatively narrow ranges are prevailing, including with the Japanese yen, where the threat of intervention has helped steady the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan meets next week, and although reports suggest that it will take the inflationary implications of the yen’s weakness into account, the swaps …

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The Dollar Consolidates while Japan Steps Up its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS

2026-01-14

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2026-01-14

The dollar is mostly softer, but the consolidative tone persists. The yen remains the notable exception. Japanese officials have taken several steps up the intervention ladder with heightened warnings. The market initially extended the greenback’s gains to JPY159.45 before taking some profits and pushing the dollar to around JPY158.60. The market senses it is on …

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JPY Slumps

2026-01-13

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2026-01-13

The US dollar is mostly confined to narrow ranges against most of the G10 currencies today, ahead of the US CPI report and US corporate earnings. The yen is a notable exception. The dollar reached through JPY159.00 and has barely backed off. The ostensible catalyst is the heightened speculation of a snap election, which could … Continue reading...

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