Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Yen Slides on a Double Whammy

2026-02-24

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2026-02-24

The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese companies with military ties and put others on a watch-list, which no doubt will have a cooling effect. At the same … Continue...

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When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done

2026-02-23

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2026-02-23

The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure earlier today in the Asia Pacific session, in which Tokyo was closed for a national holiday. It clawed its way back in Europe and is now narrowly … Continue reading...

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Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?

2026-02-21

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2026-02-21

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose up to 15% tariff for 150 days. The dollar remained firm after …

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Tariff Decision Day?

2026-02-20

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2026-02-20

The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first look at Q4 GDP, the preliminary February PMI and the University of Michigan’s final February reading on consumer … Continue reading...

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FX Market Awaits North American Leadership

2026-02-19

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2026-02-19

The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific operators have extended the greenback’s gains. The somewhat more hawkish FOMC minutes sat the US two-year yield recover to session highs …

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US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction

2026-02-18

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2026-02-18

The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against most of the G10 currencies today in subdued activity. The highlight includes an unexpected dovish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand …

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UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower

2026-02-17

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2026-02-17

The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the lower yields, the yen’s roughly 0.25% advance puts it atop the G10 performer today. Ahead of what is expected to be a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of …

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Japanese Data Disappoint and Sends Yen Lower, While the Greenback Consolidates more Broadly

2026-02-16

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2026-02-16

In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. The US markets are closed for President’s Day, while Chinese markets are closed for the week to celebrate the Lunar New Year. Disappointing Japanese data, including Q4 GDP and December industrial output weighed on the …

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Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision on Tariffs? 8 Fed Officials Speak as the Market Discounts almost 65 bp of Cuts this Year

2026-02-14

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2026-02-14

Last week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the yen and JGBs rallied. It appears that the yen's use as a levered funding leg for carry trades had already been adjusted. At the start of the week, reports circulated that Chinese officials were encouraging local …

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The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI

2026-02-13

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2026-02-13

The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger than expected January employment data, the greenback pared its losses. Separately, and counter-intuitively, the Japanese yen and Japanese bonds have rallied in the …

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Consolidation Featured after Yesterday’s Big FX Moves

2026-02-12

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2026-02-12

The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation after yesterday’s stronger than expected January jobs data injected volatility into dollar trading. The news stream is light and tomorrow the US reports January CPI. Japan’s markets re-opened after yesterday’s holiday and extended the yen’s recovery marginally and the JGB rally. As JPY152 …

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US Jobs Data Due while the Confrontation with Iran is Approaching a Climax

2026-02-11

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2026-02-11

The US dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies. The powerful short squeeze continues to lift the yen, though Japan was on holiday today. Defying expectations, the yen, and Japanese bonds have rallied since the LDP’s sweeping electoral victory. The combination of a stronger yen and lower yields may look like a classic sell …

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Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday’s Shellacking

2026-02-10

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2026-02-10

After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended through the local session and the European morning. The very long-end of the Japanese yield curve also extended its counter-intuitive rally, with the 30- and …

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Dramatic Victory for Takaichi, Beijing Cautions on US Treasuries, and Starmer’s Woes Persist

2026-02-09

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2026-02-09

There are three important developments. First, Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide victory that secured a 2/3 “super majority” that is understood as a powerful mandate and provides an opportunity to change the constitution.  While JGBs were sold and Japanese equities bought, after some initial volatility, as many anticipated, the yen …

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Week Ahead: Does the Dollar’s Upside Correction have more Room to Run?

2026-02-07

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2026-02-07

The US dollar rose against the G10 currencies last week but the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Without much in the way of new supportive developments, we frame its gains primarily in technical terms after the dramatic sell-off the appears to have been spurred by the bellicose nature of the US attitude toward Greenland. The …

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After Extending Its Gains, the Greenback Softens

2026-02-06

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2026-02-06

The US dollar is seeing this week’s gains pared against most of the G10 currencies today. The Australian dollar has recovered from a two-week low set earlier today and is the only G10 currency that has gained on the greenback this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates earlier this week and the market …

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ECB and BOE to Stand Pat, while USD is mostly Firmer

2026-02-05

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2026-02-05

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone today against most of the G10 currencies. The consolidative/corrective tone continues. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meeting outcomes are awaited. Neither central bank will do anything, giving the commentary extra sway.  The bar to another ECB rate cut seems high, though headline inflation …

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Sunday’s Election Prospects Weigh on the Yen

2026-02-04

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2026-02-04

The dollar enjoys a broadly firmer today, but it is mostly consolidating. The Japanese yen is a notable exception. The greenback reached JPY156.85, its best level since January 23 and does not look as if it has peaked. Sunday’s election is around the corner and polls show Prime Minister Takaichi leading the LDP to a … Continue...

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Reserve Bank of Australia Hikes Rates and Sees Another this Year

2026-02-03

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2026-02-03

The sense of anxiety that hung over the capital markets eased today. Equity markets are higher and the meltdown in gold and silver brought in new buying. The US dollar is mostly a little softer, but its upside correction does not appear over. Most emerging market currencies are firmer today, led by the unlikely Indian …

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Monday Blues: Precious Metals are Less Precious

2026-02-02

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2026-02-02

The dollar begins the new week and new month in a mixed fashion. There have been some follow-through gains after the pre-weekend jump, but a consolidative tone has emerged. The greenback is holding on to gains against the Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Swiss franc. It is nearly flat against the yen. Emerging market currencies …

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