Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings

2026-03-18

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2026-03-18

There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz and pipelines that bypass the choke point entirely. President Trump is again holding out the possibility that the war ends shortly. Second, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is in …

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RBA Hikes in a 5-4 Decision, Trump-Xi Meeting Postponed, Beijing Tightens Restrictions on Fertilizer

2026-03-17

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2026-03-17

There have been three developments to note. First, President Trump’s trip to China has been postponed by at least a month. The White House linked it to the war efforts, but earlier reports claimed Chinese officials were disappointed with the lack of progress in the preparatory efforts. The US administration also appeared to warn the …

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Precarious Calm in the Capital Markets, with a Softer Greenback

2026-03-16

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2026-03-16

The war continues to dominate, but the dollar is trading lower against the G10 currencies. April WTI is trading in around a $3 range on both sides of $99 a barrel. US and European benchmark 10-year yields are a little softer. If the markets seem calmer, recognize that it is precarious as the fog of … Continue...

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Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves

2026-03-14

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2026-03-14

The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy this year. Japan is a notable exception as the swaps market continues to discount almost two hikes this year. Eight of the G10 central banks meet in …

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The War Rages On; Equities and Bonds Don’t Like It,

2026-03-13

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2026-03-13

The war and rhetoric around it keep investors on edge, even though WTI and Brent are consolidating now after reaching marginal new four-day highs. The greenback is firm against the G10 currencies. Disappointing UK January GDP has weighed on sterling, whose 0.65% loss leads the majors. The proximity of the JPY160 level may be encouraging …

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The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move

2026-03-12

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2026-03-12

The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace and composition. Moreover, the markets’ understanding of the disruption is well beyond oil and includes gas, fertilizer, sulfur, and urea. Adding to the geo-economic morass, late …

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Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider

2026-03-11

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2026-03-11

The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian dollar to new highs since June 2022. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies as the dollar extended yesterday’s gains to almost JPY158.50, its best level since …

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Investors Find Hope in the Fog of War

2026-03-10

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2026-03-10

The markets have put much stock in President Trump’s signal that the war on Iran may be nearly over. News today suggests that the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked and several European countries have committed more military hardware to defend the UAE. In the fog of war, public pronouncements are part of the war … Continue...

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Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100

2026-03-09

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2026-03-09

The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil producers to shut down output due to limited storage capacity. Sulfur and urea supplies are also being disrupted, as is natural gas and …

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Week Ahead: War and More War

2026-03-07

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2026-03-07

The Middle East war changes everything. And President Trump's demand for an unconditional surrender makes a near-term off-ramp more difficult to envision. Moreover, the impact ripples through a wide swath the global economy. Food is very oil and gas intensive, taking into account transportation, fertilizer, and pesticides. Worker remittances are important to many developing nations …

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War Continues to Roil the Markets

2026-03-06

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2026-03-06

The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen, where the JPY158 level is coming under pressure. Still, the yen, despite Japan’s reliance on imported oil and refined products is the …

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War-Driven Markets

2026-03-05

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2026-03-05

The Gulf War continues rage. China has reportedly told top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline. The disruption is beginning to impact shipments of fertilizer, chemicals, aluminum, as well as natural gas and oil fuels. In the next few days, several countries will reportedly run out of storage capacity and will have …

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Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended

2026-03-04

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2026-03-04

The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the end of the war. The fog of war continues to cast a heavy pall over the markets, though there is a hope that the war can … Continue reading...

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The Dollar is the Only Game in Town

2026-03-03

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2026-03-03

If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries are lower. Equity markets have been sold off and the rally in oil is taking a toll on bond markets. The Middle East war is … Continue reading »

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Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven

2026-03-02

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2026-03-02

There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar, which often performs relatively better in a strong US dollar environment is off the … Continue...

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March 2026 Monthly

2026-02-28

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2026-02-28

March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and none are likely to change policy. China formalizes its next Five-Year Plan. In the US, the Supreme Court's ruling … Continue reading...

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PBOC Steadies the Yuan, Denmark Calls Snap Election, Greens’ Win the UK Special Election

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

The US dollar is mostly softer today as North American participants enter the fray. Trading remains quiet and the general consolidative tone continues amid a relatively quiet news stream. Although US and Iranian talks are set to continue next week, the market remains on edge. There are three developments to note. First, the PBOC abolished the …

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Yen and Yuan Gains Featured in Quiet FX Market

2026-02-26

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2026-02-26

In a reversal of fortunes, the Japanese yen is the only G10 currency that is gaining on the dollar through the European morning. Yesterday, it was the only G10 currency to have weakened against the greenback. Still, the general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. The notable exception is the Chinese …

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Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs

2026-02-25

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2026-02-25

The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn ranges, which may be reinforced by a busy option expiration schedule, we discuss below. There are two notable exceptions. First, is the Japanese yen, which sent to more than two-week …

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Yen Slides on a Double Whammy

2026-02-24

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2026-02-24

The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese companies with military ties and put others on a watch-list, which no doubt will have a cooling effect. At the same … Continue...

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