Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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The Dollar is Firm but Consolidating

2026-01-15

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2026-01-15

The consolidation phase in the dollar continues today. Relatively narrow ranges are prevailing, including with the Japanese yen, where the threat of intervention has helped steady the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan meets next week, and although reports suggest that it will take the inflationary implications of the yen’s weakness into account, the swaps …

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The Dollar Consolidates while Japan Steps Up its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS

2026-01-14

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2026-01-14

The dollar is mostly softer, but the consolidative tone persists. The yen remains the notable exception. Japanese officials have taken several steps up the intervention ladder with heightened warnings. The market initially extended the greenback’s gains to JPY159.45 before taking some profits and pushing the dollar to around JPY158.60. The market senses it is on …

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JPY Slumps

2026-01-13

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2026-01-13

The US dollar is mostly confined to narrow ranges against most of the G10 currencies today, ahead of the US CPI report and US corporate earnings. The yen is a notable exception. The dollar reached through JPY159.00 and has barely backed off. The ostensible catalyst is the heightened speculation of a snap election, which could … Continue reading...

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New Push Against the Federal Reserve Sends the Dollar, and US Bonds and Stocks Lower, and Helps Lift Gold and Silver to Record Highs

2026-01-12

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2026-01-12

The US dollar initially opened firmer, while Japan is on holiday. But news that the Justice Department served grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve on Friday, over the renovations of the Fed’s headquarters roiled the markets. Fed Chair Powell issued a terse statement rejected the charges and said they were a “pretext” for dissatisfaction …

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Week Ahead: Additional Scope for the US Dollar to Extend the Upside Correction

2026-01-10

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2026-01-10

After trending lower from late November through late December, the US dollar has begun the new year on firmer footing. The retracement of the losses in late 2025 has been encouraged by data that strengthens the market's conviction that like last year, the Federal Reserve will begin this year with an extended pause that may …

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US and Canada Jobs Day and More

2026-01-09

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2026-01-09

The US dollar enjoys a firmer today ahead of what promises to be a memorable North American session that features the US December employment report and the Supreme Court’s judgement on the legality of the widespread tariffs implemented under the president’s emergency powers. The larger than expected rise in household spending in Japan and German …

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USD Continues to Consolidate: Tomorrow’s Employment Data and Supreme Court Decision Awaited

2026-01-08

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2026-01-08

The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. Yet the broad consolidative tone remains intact.  It may be challenged tomorrow with the US employment report and the anticipated Supreme Court decision on the president’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs. Meanwhile, President Trump announced more domestic initiatives including curbs on defense contractors' CEO …

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Dollar Consolidates as American Exceptionalism Returns

2026-01-07

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2026-01-07

Drivers: The US dollar is trading narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The market has an eye toward the US employment data, which often roils trading, due Friday. Indications suggest that the US Supreme Court may rule on the legality of the broad US tariffs imposed under emergency power legislation. Most seem to expect the …

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Euro and Sterling Stall

2026-01-06

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2026-01-06

Drivers: A consolidative tone appears to be emerging. The US dollar is mixed, with the dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone firm and the other others nursing small losses.  The US jobs data is at the end of the week, and the market continues to digest geopolitical developments. China announced export controls on Japan for any good …

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Markets Show Little Reaction to Venezuela Events

2026-01-05

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2026-01-05

The US capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro and his wife is the key talking point today. The immediate market fallout has been minimal. Oil prices are little changed. The dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new low since October …

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January 2026 Monthly

2026-01-03

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2026-01-03

The coming year begins under the long shadow of geopolitical tensions and the unfolding of a new transformative technology, artificial intelligence—a technology that in 2025 proved both a backbone and a fault line for the U.S. economy. The resurrection of the US Monroe Doctrine, Russia's hybrid war in Europe and its aggressive campaign in Ukraine, …

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Next Week: Six G-10 Central Banks Meet, But Only Two Move–BOE Cuts and BOJ Hikes

2025-12-13

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2025-12-13

Encouraged by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and its T-bill purchases, the dollar was sold. The Dollar Index fell for the fourth week in the past five. Leaving aside the Bank of England, which will most likely cut rates in the week ahead, the easing cycle of most of the other G10 central banks appears …

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Dollar Remains on the Defensive after the FOMC

2025-12-11

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2025-12-11

(Last daily of the year.  Weekly will be posted on Saturday, December 13. January monthly will drop on January 3.)Overview: The dollar was sold in response to yesterday's FOMC decision. There has been limited follow-through selling in Asia and Europe today. The greenback is mixed as North American participants return. The Swiss franc is the …

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Fed Day with 10-year Yield at a Three-Month High

2025-12-10

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2025-12-10

Overview: The outcome of the FOMC meeting is the main focus today. With the market discounting at least two cuts next year compared with the median projection in September that one cut would be appropriate, it is difficult not to anticipate a hawkish cut. The greenback has rallied after both the September and October rate … Continue reading...

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Hawkish Hold by the RBA; Will the Fed Deliver a Hawkish Cut Tomorrow?

2025-12-09

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2025-12-09

Overview: The US dollar is sporting a slightly softer profile against the G10 currencies today. The exception is the yen, which is trading at a seven-day low against the greenback. The Scandis and Australian dollar are doing best. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish hold. Governor Bullock's comments encouraged the market to bring …

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Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

2025-12-08

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2025-12-08

Overview: The US dollar is mostly consolidating in quiet turnover against the G10 currencies to start the new week, which is widely expected to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow and there is speculation that it may signal its next move is a …

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Week Ahead: Fed to Cut but RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada Set to Hold, and Market Thinks They are Done

2025-12-06

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2025-12-06

The US dollar traded heavily last week, losing ground to all the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc. The franc seemed to be dragged down by the use of it rather than the yen as a funding currency. Japanese officials protested the pace of the yen's weakness, while Swiss authorities seem to welcome the franc's …

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German Factory Orders Surprise to the Upside, Japan Household Spending Surprise to the Downside, while the Greenback Consolidates

2025-12-05

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2025-12-05

Overview: The US dollar is a little softer today but mostly consolidating yesterday's moves against the G10 currencies. The Australian dollar leads the way and reached its best level since September 18. The market, though, has shrugged off surprising data:  a surge in German factory orders and a disappointing drop in household spending in Japan. …

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Dollar’s Downside Momentum Stalls

2025-12-04

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2025-12-04

Overview: The US dollar is stabilizing most of the G10 currencies today after its recent losses. As the North American markets are set to open, the greenback is posting minor gains against the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. The news stream is light. The market has lifted the odds of a … Continue...

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After Pausing Yesterday, the Greenback’s Slide is Extending Today

2025-12-03

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2025-12-03

Overview: The US dollar is under pressure today. Stronger European final PMI readings and a pullback in US yields have seen the greenback sold through last month's lows against several G10 currencies. And even where the data disappointed, like Australia's Q3 GDP or Switzerland's CPI, the currencies are bid. Led by central European currencies, most …

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