Recent posts

New calculation of SNB exchange rate indices

Change to a more comprehensive and up-to-date methodology. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting the Swiss franc exchange rate indices it calculates and publishes on a new footing. The adjustment allows the Swiss economy’s competitive and trading...

Status of US Pivot To Asia

Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported

Peak gold – Biggest gold story not being reported. Gold ‘Mining Zombie Apocalypse’ caused miners to slash exploration budgets. Decline in gold production at world’s top 10 gold mining companies - Byron King. “No new big mines being built in the world...

Pressure, Sure, But From Where?

It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official...

Swiss Trade Balance February 2017: Swiss imports finally rising more than exports

Swiss exports are moving more and more toward higher value sectors: away from watches, jewelry and manufacturing towards chemicals and pharmaceuticals. With currency interventions, the SNB is trying to keep sectors alive, that would not survive without...

Switzerland’s economic prospects remain positive

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – spring 2017*. Swiss economic growth turned out disappointingly weak in the second half of 2016. However, the leading indicators are pointing to a clear upward trend in early 2017 and the...

“People Need to Understand that their Biggest Asset is Individual Liberty” – an Interview with Claudio Grass

As election season is upon us in Europe and political and economic tensions are heating up, Claudio Grass notes that “the euro is the most artificial currency in history”, highlighting one of the most fundamental problems at the heart of the EU’s...

Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today

The cost of buying and selling gold. How to buy gold on the cheap. How to avoid paying capital gains tax (CGT) on your gold. Open an account with one of the online bullion dealers – the likes of GoldMoney, GoldCore or Bullion Vault. Gold Sovereigns...

Digital Gold – For Now Caveat Emptor

Bitcoin surpasses gold price - a psychological and arbitrary headline. Royal Mint blockchain gold asks you to trust in the UK government. Royal Canadian Mint and GoldMoney blockchain product asks you to trust in government and the technology, servers,...

Was There Ever A ‘Skills Mismatch’? Notable Differences In Job Openings Suggest No

Perhaps the most encouraging data produced by the BLS has been within its JOLTS figures, those of Job Openings. It is one data series that policymakers watch closely and one which they purportedly value more than most. While the unemployment and...

Solutions Abound–on the Local Level

Rather than bemoan the inevitable failure of centralized "fixes," let's turn our attention and efforts to the real solutions: decentralized, networked, localized.Those looking for centralized solutions to healthcare, jobs and other "macro-problems"...

Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: EUR/CHF suddenly higher after ECB

The EUR/CHF suddenly appreciated with the ECB meeting, when Draghi seemed less dovish than before. The rate rose from the previous 1.0650 to over 1.0750. With the SNB meeting, the EUR/CHF receded again. SNB interventions, are currently at 2 bn. per...

Weekly Speculative Position: After ECB, Reduction of Euro Shorts

Speculators reduced their net Euro shorts after the less dovish ECB. But the net short of CHF nearly remains stable. This resulted in an appreciation of EUR/CHF.

FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Theme Questioned

Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate. There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end. The Bank of England left rates on hold,...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX had a stellar week, ending on a strong note in the aftermath of what the market perceived as a dovish Fed hike Wednesday. Every EM currency except ARS was up on the week vs. USD, with the best performers ZAR, TRY, COP, and MXN. There are some...

FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

Industrial Symmetry

There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies. In what is, or was, essentially symmetry, there had been until 2008 considerable correlation between the size, scope, and...

Oil Supply Remains Resilient, Prices Heavy

Nearly half of OPEC's intended cuts are being offset by an increase in US output. The contango rewards the accumulation of inventories. The drop in oil prices probably weighs more on European reflation story than the US.

Retail Sales: Extra Day Likely, no Meaningful Difference

Retail sales comparisons were for February 2017 skewed by the extra day in February 2016. With the leap year February 29th a part of the base effect, the estimated growth rates (NSA) for this February are to some degree better than they appear....

Welcome to Totalitarian America, President Trump!

If there had been any doubt that the land of the free and home of the brave is now a totalitarian society, the revelations that its Chief Executive Officer has been spied upon while campaigning for that office and during his brief tenure as president...

Swiss Post to start delivering with drones this summer

Swiss post has said it will deliver the first packages by air this summer. The first deliveries will be made between two medical laboratories on the southern side of the Alps. Test flights were conducted in the canton of Bern last year. Now Swiss Post...

The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus

Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century. Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward. Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired.

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

The PBOC increased the rates it charges for OMO and MLF by 10 bp. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s BJP won elections in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Czech central bank broached the possibility of a koruna cap exit later than mid-2017. Kuwait became the...

Further Unanchoring Is Not Strictly About Inflation

According to Alan Greenspan in a speech delivered at Stanford University in September 1997, monetary policy in the United States had been shed of M1 by late 1982. The Fed has never been explicit about exactly when, or even why, monetary policy changed...

The Swiss Franc Hits its Lowest Since December

According to some experts, the weaker franc can be partly explained by the market activities of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The cantonal bank of Thurgau said that the SNB appeared to be targeting a weaker franc ahead of the Dutch elections on...

FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of...

CS and UBS Tell Wealthy Retail Clients To Buy Stocks…”Here, Can You Please Hold This Bag”

Warren Buffett has frequently advised aspiring investors to take a contrarian view on markets and "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful." In fact, being dismissive of the wall street 'herd mentality' has resulted in...

Gold Sector: Positioning and Sentiment

When last we wrote about the gold sector in mid February, we discussed historical patterns in the HUI following breaches of its 200-day moving average from below. Given that we expected such a breach to occur relatively soon, the post turned out to be...