Recent posts

FX Daily, June 26: Italian Markets Shrug off Banking Morass and Local Election Results

The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer as North American dealers return to their posts. Ideas that the UK Tories are getting close to a deal with the DUP appears to be lending sterling a modicum of support, as it tries to extend its uptrend into a...

Chinese Basis For Anti-Reflation?

Yesterday was something of a data deluge. In the US, we had the predictable CPI dropping again, lackluster US Retail Sales, and then the FOMC’s embarrassing performance. Across the Pacific, the Chinese also reported Retail Sales as well as Industrial...

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 20): Surge in Positioning amid Currency Contract Roll

The net short CHF position has fallen from 14.5 short to 3K contracts short (against USD). The expiration of the June contracts and the roll into September positions appears to have boosted activity in the currency futures, and may obscure the...

FX Weekly Preview: Drivers A Couple Things that Aren’t on Your Economic Calendar

Fed, ECB and BOJ preferred inflation measures will be reported, but are unlikely to change views. Canada's Survey of Senior Loan Officers may be more important than April GDP. US healthcare bill in the Senate and likely action on steel could be the...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX ended last week on a firm note, though most were still down for the week as a whole. Commodity prices stabilized, but the balance remains fragile, in our view. We remain cautious, especially with regards to the high beta currencies such as BRL,...

FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections...

Can We See a Bubble If We’re Inside the Bubble?

If you visit San Francisco, you will find it difficult to walk more than a few blocks in central S.F. without encountering a major construction project. It seems that every decrepit low-rise building in the city has been razed and is being replaced...

Short Summary Weekly MOF Portfolio Flows

Japanese investors bought the third largest amount of foreign bonds this year last week, but still not enough to offset sales in first part of the year. Japanese investors are buying around the same amount of foreign equities as last year. Foreign...

Go for Gold – Win a beautiful Gold Sovereign coin

The Irish Times has teamed up with GoldCore, Ireland’s first and leading gold broker, to offer you the chance to win a beautiful, freshly minted Gold Sovereign coin (2017) which contains nearly one quarter of an ounce of gold and is ‘investment grade’...

Defying Labels

Last month US Industrial Production rose rather quickly. Gaining more than 1.1% month-over-month, it might have appeared that the US economy once dragged into downturn by manufacturing and industry was finally about to experience its belated upturn....

Global Asset Allocation Update:

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

Emerging Markets: What’s Changed

MSCI announced it will include 222 China Large Cap A-shares in its Emerging Markets Index. Czech central bank is pushing out rate hike expectations. Hungary central bank eased again using unconventional measures. MSCI announced that it has launched a...

Bond Yields, Inflation, and More

Falling oil prices pushing down inflation expectations and lowering bond yields is the conventional narrative. It ignores that survey-based measures of inflation expectations are stable. It ignores a host of other demand factors.

Are the World’s Billionaire Investors Actually Buying Gold?

The 4 investors profiled in the infographic are: Jacob Rothschild (Lord), chairman of London-based investment trust RIT Capital Partners Plc, David Einhorn, president of Manhattan-based hedge fund firm Greenlight Capital, Ray Dalio, chairman and CIO of...

Repeat 2015; An Embarrassing Day For The Fed

Today started out very badly for the FOMC. At 8:30am the Commerce Department reported “unexpectedly” weak retail sales while at the very same time the BLS published CPI statistics that were thoroughly predictable. Markets, at least credit and money...

FX Daily, June 23: Dollar Pares Gains Ahead of the Weekend

The US dollar is trading lower against all the major currencies today, which pares its earlier gains. The greenback is holding on to small gains for the week against most of them, except the New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and Norwegian krone.

Positive Economic Outlook Continues Despite Tentative Recovery to Date

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – summer 2017* - Although growth in the Swiss economy has steadily accelerated over the past two quarters, it has nevertheless fallen short of expectations. A further marked increase in...

Only Gold Lasts Forever

his current state of play won’t last forever. Only Gold lasts forever. Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in...

Great Graphic: Fed, ECB, and BOJ Balance Sheets

This Great Graphic composed on Bloomberg shows the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan as a proportion of GDP.

Switzerland most expensive in Europe, but not for everything says new study

Few who have visited or lived in Switzerland will be particularly surprised to hear that Switzerland is the most expensive place in Europe. However the price differences are quite eye opening. The recently published Eurostat price level study ranks...

Retail Sales Weren’t All That Bad, Meaning They Were The Worst

Taken in comparison to the last few years, today’s retail sales report wasn’t that bad. Total sales for May 2017, including autos, grew by 5.17% year-over-year (NSA). That was the highest growth rate since last February. The 6-month average is now just...

FX Daily, June 22: Greenback Goes Nowhere Quickly, While Yen Remains Bid

The summer doldrums begin early. The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Bond yields are mostly one-two basis points lower, and equity markets are mixed but with a downside bias. Oil prices slump more than 2% on Tuesday...

Swiss Trade Balance May 2017: Foreign Trade is Strengthening

In May 2017, Swiss foreign trade was dynamic. Adjusted for working days, exports increased by 7.5% and imports by 8.7%. Chemicals and pharma boosted growth in both directions. The balance of trade closed with an impressive surplus of 3.4 billion francs.

For the first time many Swiss commercial apprenticeship positions to be left vacant

Normally commercial apprenticeship positions in Switzerland are snapped up nearly one year in advance. However this year many will be left vacant according to Zurich newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.

Swiss cities ranked among world’s most expensive

Zurich, Geneva, and Bern are among the top ten most expensive cities in the world for expatriates, according to a survey by consulting company Mercer. Only three European cities remain in the top ten list, all of them in Switzerland. Zurich was ranked...

Great Graphic: Selected GDP Performance since 2008 and Policy

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Martin Beck, and it comes from Oxford Economics, using Haver Analytics database. It shows the relative economic growth since 2008 for the US, UK, Japan, and EMU.

Repeat 2014: Praying Again To The God of ‘Global Growth’

One of the more troubling aspects of mainstream commentary in 2014 was its blandness. Statements were made with a purpose but also purposefully avoiding specifics. It was common to hear or read “the economy is improving” without being shown why or how...

Wer trägt Risiko für SNB-Schuldenberg: Banken oder Volk? Darum gehts beim Staatsfonds.

Quengelware – wer kennt sie nicht? Ware, die an den Kassen der Einkaufszentren auf Augenhöhe unerzogener Kids aufgestellt ist, damit deren Quengeln Eltern zum Kaufen drängen. Ähnlich beim Schweizer Staatsfonds. Als Quengelpolitik könnte man nämlich die...

FX Daily, June 21: Heavy Oil Weighs on Yields and Lifts Yen

The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies. The drop in oil prices (3.3% this week) is seen as one of the factors that may be underpinning the appetite for fixed income, and this, in turn, is lifting the yen. The greenback had...