by Marc Chandler
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Speculators in the futures market were not particularly active in Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 5. There was only one gross position adjustment which we regard as significant (defined as a 10k contract change), and that was in the yen.
Yen bulls extended their gross long position by 13.3k contract to new record of 98.1k contracts. However, the bears are beginning to get itchy and have sold into the yen gains for the second consecutive week. The gross short yen position rose by 7.6k contracts after a minor increase the previous week (less than 150 contracts) and now stands at 38.1k contracts. The net long position increased from 54.4k contracts to 60.1k, which is a four-week high.
Another notable development in speculative positioning the currency futures was the swing to a net long Canadian dollar position, the first since last June. The net long position of 100 contracts (from a net short position of 6.2k contracts) was more a product of shorts covering than the establishment of new long. The gross short position was pared by 4.9k contracts to 29.4k. This is smallest since last May and contrasts to a peak at the end of last year of 108k short contracts. The gross long position grew by 1.4k contracts to 29.6k. At the start of the year, the speculative gross long position was 47.6k contracts.
Speculators in the futures market also continue to extend short sterling positions. The net short position of 46.5k contracts (from 40.0k the previous reporting week) is a four-week high. The bears added 7.1k contracts to the gross short position, lifting it to 86.1k contracts. This is the largest gross short position since 2013 and nearly double the size of the position from late-October (almost 44k contracts). The gross long position edged higher by 600 contracts to 39.6k, which is among the smallest speculative long positions in the currency futures we track.
The net short speculative euro position in the futures market fell to 53.5k contracts from 63.8k. It is the smallest net short position since February. The bulls added 4.3k contracts to their gross long position, lifting it to 98.0k contracts. This is a 50% increase since mid-January. The bears covered 6.0k contracts, leaving a gross short position of 151.5k contracts. This is the smallest since October and compares with 262k gross short contracts in December.
There were two distinct patterns among speculative position adjustments. The first was that speculators mostly added to long currency positions. There were two exceptions: the Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar. Together these two position adjustments were 1.5k contracts. The second pattern was the reduction of gross short positions. There were two exceptions here too. We have already noted both. Gross yen and sterling short positions were grown, a little more than 7k contracts each.
Speculators sold US 10-year Treasury futures. The net short position swelled to 117.3k contracts from 16.9k. Bulls took profits, liquidating 63.8k gross long contracts to 384.9k. The bears sold into the rally, raising the gross short position by 36.6k contracts to 502.2k.
Speculators also sold into the rally in oil. The net long speculative position fell by 15.4k contracts to 290.1k. The bears added 22.5k contracts to their gross short position. It stood at 251.6k contracts at the end of the reporting period on April 5. The bulls added 7.1k contracts, lifting their stake to 541.7k gross long contracts.
| 5-Apr | Commitment of Traders | |||||
| Net | Prior | Gross Long | Change | Gross Short | Change | |
| Euro | -53.5 | -63.8 | 98.0 | 4.3 | 151.5 | -6.0 |
| Yen | 60.1 | 54.4 | 98.1 | 13.3 | 38.1 | 7.6 |
| Sterling | -46.5 | -40.0 | 39.6 | 0.6 | 86.1 | 7.1 |
| Swiss Franc | 5.6 | 4.6 | 16.6 | -1.4 | 10.9 | -2.4 |
| C$ | 0.1 | -6.2 | 29.6 | 1.4 | 29.4 | -4.9 |
| A$ | 26.8 | 23.5 | 78.2 | 1.2 | 51.4 | -2.2 |
| NZ$ | 2.9 | 1.9 | 20.2 | -0.1 | 17.2 | -1.1 |
| Mexican Peso | -31.9 | -40.8 | 40.9 | 7.9 | 72.7 | -1.1 |
| (CFTC, Bloomberg) Speculative positions in 000's of contracts | ||||||
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
Tags: Canadian Dollar,Commitments of Traders,Japanese yen,newslettersent,Speculative Positions
