by Lance Roberts
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| Money is pouring into the AI infrastructure boom, driving energy $XLE, materials $XLB, and industrials $XLI to stretched valuations as investors chase the CapEx buildout story. Yet at the same time, the market has been selling $NVDA even after a blowout quarter. Capital is crowding into sectors trading at record relative premiums, while one of the core AI beneficiaries and enablers now looks significantly cheaper on a growth-adjusted basis. Leadership will eventually rotate and investors should focus less on what’s worked and more on where capital flows next. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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The Reflation Narrative Stumbles Out Of The Gate
2026-01-26
With a 4.4% increase in economic growth in the third quarter and expectations that it could be higher in the fourth quarter, the so-called reflation narrative appears primed to dash out of the gates in 2026 at its current strong pace. The problem with assuming the reflation narrative will hold in 2026 is that it …
1-22-26 Stop Letting Headlines Blow Up Your Portfolio
2026-01-22
Headlines don’t move markets—real buying and selling do.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz I discuss why media narratives are often just after-the-fact explanations that ignore actual facts, like strong Treasury auctions and foreign buying, and why focusing on market structure and demand matters more than reacting to the news.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
1 Million Layoffs
2025-12-08
U.S. employers have announced over 1 million layoffs this year, the highest annual total since the pandemic-era collapse in 2020. November alone saw more than 71,000 layoffs announced, keeping pressure on sectors from technology to telecoms even as the equity market pushes higher. The post below, courtesy @KobeissiLetter, details some of this year’s announcements. …
Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop
2025-12-06
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
12-5-25 Roth Conversions, Money Rules & Financial Wellness: What Actually Works?
2025-12-04
Richard Rosso breaks down a study that modeled hundreds of thousands of retirement scenarios to determine which Roth conversion strategy performs best over a 10-year period:
• Staying in a traditional IRA/401(k) and taking RMDs
• A one-time Roth conversion
• A gradual, multi-year conversion strategy
RIA Advisors’ Financial Guardrails are timeless principles for building lasting wealth and protecting your financial future. Rich also shares insights from decades of experience helping investors avoid common pitfalls and build financial wellness that lasts generations.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – The Roth Account Smile
4:40 – Roth Applications for Different Stages of Life
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14:55 – Annuities Should Be Planned, not Sold
15:52 – A Home is a Liability,
Excess Liquidity: Where Art Thou?
2025-10-09
The graph below, courtesy of the St. Louis Fed, charts the amount of money in the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility. To understand why the current lack of a meaningful balance in the program could become concerning, let’s revisit the Fed’s response to the Pandemic. During the pandemic and global economic shutdown, …
AMD Surges: Nvidia Competition Heats Up
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock opened up by nearly 35% on Monday morning, following reports that OpenAI is acquiring a 10% stake in AMD. As part of the agreement, AMD will supply OpenAI with 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct GPUs.
Corporate Prices Lead Consumer Prices
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The following discussion is courtesy of Paul Mortimer Lee, as provided by Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Paul makes an interesting case that PCE prices, the Fed’s primary gauge of inflation, are likely to decline. Supporting his view is a relatively wide and growing gap between the prices witnessed by the non-financial corporate business sector, …
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