How Expectations Drive Short-Term Market Returns

2024-12-13

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, Canada’s central bank is fighting off a recession. Canadian real GDP for the last four …

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2024-12-11

Feeling uncertain about future policies & earnings? 🤔 Experts warn of potential surprises next year. Stay tuned! 📈 #EconomicOutlook #StayInformed

Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/7c9238

YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-10-21

Earnings estimates remain exceptionally optimistic, raising the question of whether consumer spending can sustain present levels (the source of earnings!) Investors should be careful averages, and remember that records are recrods for a reason. Why we’re still expecting acorrection; we’ve had six strong weeks in a row, and a seventh is not out of the question this week. Lance looks at where earnings are really occurring (in the Mag-7 companies); what happens if those top 10% companies cease growing? Earnings expectations are what move market prices; why Wall St. is the "sell" side, and investors are on the "buy" side. Gold is very over-bought; deviated nearly five-times above moving averages. There’s nothing "wrong" with markets now; the challenge for investors is buying stocks that may

2024-10-17

The financial media frequently opines on what the daily gyrations of the VIX (implied volatility inde) signal regarding investor sentiment. Despite how often it is quoted and discussed, many investors do not truly appreciate what implied volatility measures. The VIX has been rising alongside the market in a non-typical fashion. With the presidential election in a few weeks, the Fed changing course on monetary policy, and Israel potential for attacking Iranian oil facilities, the increasing level of implied risk should not be shocking. Will the elevated VIX persist alongside the rising market, or will the market correct?

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Eecutive Producer
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2024-10-15

📈 Debunking recession fears! 📉 Despite viral videos predicting doom, the data doesn’t lie. Get the facts in this weekend’s newsletter! #EconomicTrends #DataDriven

Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/75df3c

YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-08-16

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates.

“If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?”

It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be.

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth. However, the problem is that while the artificial stimulus created a surge in inflationary pressures, it did little to spark

2024-08-12

Laying the groundwork for Fed rate cuts: Will they or won’t they in September, and by how much? 80% of S&P companies have reported; stock buy back windows are back open for business; Q-2 earnings summary: Not great, not terrible. Is consumer spending slowing (and will earnings estimates fall)? Last week’s market volatility: Still in the process of correction. Sell-off was recovered by Friday. After a muted open today, use any rally to reduce risk and raise cash. Lance jumps into the unpredictability of the market and challenges common assumptions. Discover why what you think you know might not be true: The importance of questioning market assumptions; the unpredictability of market behavior; why the market has already priced in expected events; the real-time nature of markets; common

2024-08-09

With the turmoil of the past week, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio, and rebalance the risk. What is the deal with stocks advertising on TV? Wealth transferrence & Inheritances: How common is it for children to meet with parent and financial advisor? If there’s money left… How RMD’s can calter inheritances; how gift-giving works. Lance’s kids are ‘off the payroll.’ Are you planning to receive an inheritance? How life-long gift-giving can work; what are the tax implications? Using gifting as an opportunity to teach about money & stewardship. Estate Planning prep: When do you need a trust? (Implications in the event of divorce.) Don’t let the documents talk; have a conversation with your kids about the money. Dealing with tax torpedos in Social Security; taxation and