Economic Growth and High Fed Rates: Is a Huge Rate Cut Necessary?

2024-10-01

It’s a big news week: The Dock Workers’ strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since the 1950’s. A correction at this point would be healthy for markets. We think there will be a 3- to 5% correction before elections, creating room for markets to rally into year’s end. Lance’s rant on the Coffee Pod scam, and the SEC doesn’t have far to look (Congress!) for insider trading. Lance and Jon look at market performance, global money flows, and observe the ‘everything market.’ Commentary on potential disruption by dock workers’ strike.

2024-10-01

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.

“It is this cocktail of ‘full support’ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an ‘Everything Market’ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a period, almost everything simultaneously rises – value, growth, small, large, defensive, and cyclical stocks – and usually by a lot.

Short rates are falling, bond yields have declined, money growth is rising, fiscal stimulus has again expanded, and disinflation is still evident; and because of this new and overwhelming

2024-09-28

Building wealth step by step 💰 Setting realistic goals and working towards them! #FinancialSuccess #MoneyGoals

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YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-07-29

📈🔍 Economic and financial stress signals emerging in the bond market. Stay alert for potential surprises ahead! #marketinsights #Fed #economy

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2024-07-25

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain the crucial link between consumer confidence and economic performance. Learn how sentiment drives markets and impacts your personal finances: The relationship between financial confidence and spending habits; the effects of market decline on consumer behavior; how sentiment influences economic performance; the role of confidence in personal financial decisions; why sentiment is a key factor

2024-05-13

Markets’ bullish trend continues; no reason to be sitting in cash now. Economic data is proving to be a mixed bag. Consumers’ creativity for accessing funds they shouldn’t be touching for continued spending. Markets are back to overbought; wait for a pullback to add exposure. What’s moving markets: The Fed or AI? When the Fed supplies liquidity, fundamentals take second chair. Fundamentals, however, will save you in a market downturn. Will AI be a game changer? "Ready Player One" is the ultimate outcome of AI. There are now emerging energy concerns for powering AI. Imperative to know what narratives are driving markets to best plan investing strategy. Earnings are a function of economic growth: S&P growth to slow as company earnings slow. Stock buybacks are used to engineer better

2024-05-10

Positive news on Social Security funds as the negative balance shrank. Benefits could be cut by 20-23%, but raising retirement age and removing the cap may help. #SocialSecurity #RetirementAge #positivenews

In this important discussion, we dive into the current state of financial funds and the outlook for Social Security. They explore potential reforms and the realistic impacts of these changes on benefits.
– Evaluation of the recent shrinkage in the negative actuarial balance of combined funds.
– The potential crisis in fund sustainability and its postponed timeline.
– Estimated reduction in benefits during a potential crisis, with figures ranging between 20% and 23%.
– The effect of various reports and analyses from different tax groups and agencies on these numbers.
– Proposed

2024-05-09

Todd Combs, a member of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio management team, is responsible for bringing Apple to Warren Buffett’s attention. However, not all credit goes to Combs. Buffett presented Combs with a challenge that ultimately highlighted Apple’s value proposition. With this same challenge, we will take a stab at finding the next Apple.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-rally-as-powell-sparks-a-buying-frenzy/
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