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2025-10-29

The U.S.’s debts are on the edge of becoming unmanageable to the point where it could default if conditions are not changed.

But this problem isn’t a unique one. It has happened many times in history, which is why I believe studying the past is so important. The same cycles repeat over and over again, and there are important lessons we can learn from those experiences.

I recently met with Bloomberg @markets ahead of the UN Ocean Conference to discuss our debts, the possibility of global crisis, and the importance of investing in our oceans.

If you’re interested in learning more about our collective debt burden — and what steps we can take to solve these issues — I explain my thinking in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

I hope you will read it and let me know your

2025-10-17

Ultimately, it’s all about human nature.

In my view, the biggest risk we face are our own selfish, mutually-destructive tendencies. If we’re able to rise above them and find compromises, we can avoid the worst possible outcomes.

But to do that, we need to stop fighting with each other and align on policies that improve conditions for everyone.

2025-10-08

The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.

It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.

Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.

That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.

@TheProfGPod

You can watch the full conversation here: _JLSAat94?si=AIGAM6BTiw7ZWCCC

2025-08-26

This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy.

This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur.

This is Part 2, I hope you find this helpful.

2025-08-25

This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy.

This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur.

This is Part 1, I hope you find these helpful.

2025-08-11

My view is that buying and holding real estate is not an effective investment strategy in our current economic environment, for a few reasons.

1) Real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is inflation sensitive, so given our current circumstances it is likely to go down in real terms

2) It is a fixed asset that is easy to tax, which limits its impacts on your ability to diversify

3) Real estate is nailed down, so investing in it makes it more difficult to move money from one place to another

That’s my view, in a nutshell. I’m curious to hear if you agree.

#GovernmentDebt #debt #principles

2025-06-20

The Fed is in a very difficult position as it tries to balance the benefits of cutting interest rates with maintaining the value of money.

Right now, there is a great deal of uncertainty throughout the economy, along with a deterioration in sentiment.

Combine that with political pressures and the realities of our upcoming debt service payments, and you have this value of money conflict.

So changes in the monetary policy — especially if the cut is too aggressive — could lead to a period of great concern.

My advice: Watch the yield curve. If you see long rates rising alongside downward movement in the dollar and rises in gold, you’ll know there’s a movement out of bonds. Because the value of money matters a lot.

#raydalio #howcountriesgobroke #economics #markets