After Friday’s weak employment report, there was a rebirth of the once-dead argument for a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Over the last six months, the economy has shed 6,000 jobs in aggregate, including three months in which […]
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Value or Growth Is Not A Debate, Its An Opportunity
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At the start of 2026, we introduced our Factor Rotation Model. The model summary below was posted in SimpleVisor: We launched a new model on January 2nd called the Factor Rotation Model. Historically, the performance of value and growth factors relative to the S&P 500 exhibits a strong negative correlation. Michael Lebowitz provided an overview …
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“Japan Bond Meltdown Sends Yields to Record High on Fiscal Fears,” read a January 2026 Bloomberg article. Headlines like this, and many others, warn that Japan’s abrupt interest rate increase is an omen of dire trouble. While that may be the case, given decades of economic woes, declining demographics, and extreme levels of outstanding debt, …
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Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently declared: “I do not believe there’s an AI bubble by any imagination.” We agree and disagree. We believe AI is a technological game-changer on par with the invention of the computer and the internet. AI technology is not a bubble and will prove incredibly valuable and productive. However, it’s …
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Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add …
Hassett To Replace Powell: Betting Markets Are Confident
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Based on comments from President Trump and the odds on the Kalshi betting site, shown below, Kevin Hassett is the likely nominee to replace Jerome Powell when his term as Fed Chair ends in May. While still half a year away, the market is beginning to price in what a Hassett leadership might mean for …
Joe Weisenthal’s Take Down Of The ‘Debasement’ Trade
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Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote an interesting article (Maybe ‘Debasement’ Isn’t The Best Way To Put it), sharing his opinion on the rising popularity of the so-called debasement trade. The debasement trade logic that Joe generally debunks is growing very popular in the media, per the Bloomberg graph below. While Joe thinks the debasement trade logic …
The AltCoin Liquidity Bloodbath
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Last Friday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a violent crash. The trigger was President Trump’s announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports. The sudden and unexpected action reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Global risk assets fell sharply. Of these, the most notable declines occurred in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly the altcoin market. …
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