The Financial Sector Is Under Pressure
2026-03-03
The heatmap below, courtesy of FinViz, shows the one-month performance of the S&P 500 financial sector stocks. As shown, Berkshire Hathaway and the insurance companies are higher over the period, while the large majority of the remaining financial sector stocks struggle. For context, the S&P 500 was down 2.80% over the same period. There appear …
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Economic Sentiment Belies Strong Economic Estimates
2026-02-27
Economic growth metrics for the United States have recently shown surprising resilience; however, consumers’ economic sentiment has not. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate, real Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, well below expectations and a steep drop from the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. However, …
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DOJ Investigates Powell: Implications For Fed Policy?
2026-01-13
Over the weekend, Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has opened a criminal investigation into his June testimony to Congress regarding the roughly $2.5 billion renovation of Federal Reserve headquarters. The DOJ has served subpoenas to the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment relating to that testimony. Such action by the DOJ …
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2026 Forecast: Tis The Season For Wild Guesses
2026-01-07
It’s that time of year when every Wall Street analyst posts their forecast for where the S&P 500 will close at the end of 2026. This year, as in every other, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to post positive returns. As shown below, Bank of America is the most cautious, with a 3% gain, …
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Capex Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness
2025-11-21
The U.S. economy’s recent growth has a distinctive engine: large‑scale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers, networking equipment, and AI infrastructure. As noted by Investing.com: “Artificial intelligence is consuming capital faster than investors can recalibrate. …
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Apple Out Google In: Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves
2025-11-18
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by over 40%. Based on Buffett’s comments, they are reducing their holdings due to concerns about …
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Economic Reacceleration: A Contrarian View
2025-11-14
Over the past two weeks, we’ve addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasn’t the recession arrived? In “Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?” we examined the cracks forming beneath the economy’s surface. From deteriorating leading indicators to credit stress and cooling employment metrics, the evidence supported a cautious stance. In …
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