Value or Growth Is Not A Debate, Its An Opportunity
2026-02-06
At the start of 2026, we introduced our Factor Rotation Model. The model summary below was posted in SimpleVisor: We launched a new model on January 2nd called the Factor Rotation Model. Historically, the performance of value and growth factors relative to the S&P 500 exhibits a strong negative correlation. Michael Lebowitz provided an overview …
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The Consumption Conundrum
2025-12-29
GDP, released on Tuesday, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%. Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%. Consumers are spending!. What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak. Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment. As we share …
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Copper Prices Surge To All Time Highs
2025-12-24
On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily …
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BLue Owl Roils The AI Narrative
2025-12-19
Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle’s larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under …
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Warsh Is In The Race: Fed Chair Odds In Flux
2025-12-16
Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add …
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Nvidia Deals: Round Tripping Or Vendor Financing?
2025-11-05
“Nvidia takes a $1 billion stake in Nokia” reads a recent CNBC headline. As part of the agreement, Nokia commits to purchasing Nvidia’s AI chips and computer platforms. Additionally, the companies will collaborate to develop 6G cellular technology. Deals like this are becoming more common in the AI industry. Some view Nvidia’s recent investment in …
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CAPE Valuations: Does Nvidia Overstate Its Ominous Warning?
2025-10-29
As equity valuations approach the record highs of 1999, investors are growing anxious. This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations. Consider the following headlines and their summaries. The graph shows the S&P 500 and CAPE since 1920. Given how the market performed after the …
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