Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 24, Part 2: Peering Behind The (Unemployment Rate) Curtain

by
Jeffrey P. Snider
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———WHERE———

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———WHO———

———HOW———

24.2 Fed Implies Unemployment Was NOT What It Seemed

The Federal Reserve announced a grand, new strategy form which the idea of ‘full employment’ is stricken. It is an implicit admission that the much celebrated, often trumpeted and frenzied waving of the “Best Unemployment Rate Ever!” flag was a mistake. It wasn’t real. It wasn’t true.

———WHY———

[Emil’s Summary of L. Frank Baum] “I am Oz, the Great and Terrible. Why do you seek me?” They looked again in every part of the room, and then, seeing no one, Dorothy asked, “Where are you?”
“I am everywhere but to the eyes of common mortals I am invisible. I will now seat myself upon my throne, that you may converse with me.”
“We have come to claim our promise, O Oz.”
“What promise?” asked Oz.
“You promised to send me back to Kansas when the Wicked Witch was destroyed.”
“And you promised to give me brains,” said the Scarecrow.
“And you promised to give me a heart,” said the Tin Woodman.
“And y’all promised to give me courage,” said the Southern Lion.
“Dear me, how sudden! Well, come to me tomorrow, for I must have time to think it over.”
“You’ve had plenty of time already!”
“We shan’t wait a day longer!”
“You must keep your promises to us!”
The Lion thought it might be as well to frighten the Wizard, so he gave a large, loud roar, which was so fierce and dreadful that Toto jumped away from him in alarm and tipped over the screen that stood in a corner. As it fell with a crash they looked that way, and the next moment all of them were filled with wonder. For they saw, standing in just the spot the screen had hidden, a little old man, with a bald head and a wrinkled face, who seemed to be as much surprised as they were. Our friends looked at him in surprise and dismay.
“I thought Oz was a great Head,” said Dorothy.
“And I thought Oz was a lovely Lady,” said the Scarecrow.
“And I thought Oz was a courageous Bernanke,” said the Tin Woodman.
“And I thought Oz was the Greenspan Put,” exclaimed the Lion.
“No, you are all wrong,” said the little man meekly. “I have been making believe.”
“Making believe!” cried Dorothy. “Are you not a Great Wizard?”
“Hush, my dear, don’t speak so loud, or you will be overheard–and I should be ruined. I’m supposed to be a Great Wizard.”
“And aren’t you?”
“Not a bit of it, my dear; I’m just a common man. My dear friends, I pray you not to speak of these little things. Think of me, and the terrible trouble I’m in at being found out. No one knows it but you four–and myself. I have fooled everyone so long that I thought I should never be found out.”
“But, I don’t understand,” said Dorothy, in bewilderment. “How was it that you appeared to me as a great Head?”
“That was one of my tricks. Step this way, please, and I will tell you all about it.”

———WHEN———

00:05 How does the Federal Reserve’s grand, new strategy impact employment?
02:04 Previously the Fed was worried about “deviations”, not they’ll only consider “shortfall”
05:33 Remember that surreal, incredibly good unemployment rate? Fed just said, ‘nevermind that’
09:56 The Fed conflates monetary POLICY with monetary PHENOMENA, the consequences are serious.

———WHAT———

This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…: https://bit.ly/3jB3jLt
The World’s On Fire Because the Growth Never Was: https://bit.ly/34GxOv9
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

About Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeffrey P. Snider is the head of Global Investment Research of Alhambra Investment Partners (AIP). Jeffrey was 12 years at Atlantic Capital Management where he anticipated the financial crisis with critical research. His company is a global investment adviser, hence potential Swiss clients should not hesitate to contact AIP

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