Monthly Archive: April 2018

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

Economic Growth and Investment
The market volatility this year has been blamed on a lot of factors. The initial selloff was blamed on a hotter than expected wage number in the January employment report that supposedly sparked concerns about inflation – although a similar number this month wasn’t mentioned as a cause of last Friday’s selling. The unwinding of the short volatility trade exacerbated the situation and voila, 12% came off the market in a matter of days.

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China’s Secret Gold Supplier Is Singapore

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

Exports and Imports Preview
Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace. Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future. Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports –...

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The important role of official statistics in a world of fact, fiction and everything in between

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

News
Facts provide the foundation for political and social dialogue. But what happens when instead of facts, purposely spread untruths begin to dominate that dialogue? And what can be done about it, or better still, what can be done to stop it? Possible answers can be found at the conference entitled “Truth in numbers - the role of data in a world of fact, fiction and everything in between" that highlights the importance of official statistics for...

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FX Daily, April 10: XI’s Day, but Not So Good for Putin

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

It did not look so good. The S&P 500 fell about 1.65% in the last couple hours of trading yesterday paring its gains. Press reports indicated that President Trump's lawyer's office, house and hotel were the subject of search warrants. A Bloomberg report citing people who knew said that China would consider devaluing the yuan.

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US Jobs Data Optics Disappoint, but Signal Unchanged

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped.

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No Revolution Just Yet – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

Gold and Silver Prices
Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Why Systems Fail

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

Federal Government, 2005 - 2018
Since failing systems are incapable of structural reform, collapse is the only way forward. Systems fail for a wide range of reasons, but I'd like to focus on two that are easy to understand but hard to pin down. Systems are accretions of structures and modifications laid down over time.Each layer adds complexity which is viewed at the time as a solution. This benefits insiders, as their job security arises from the need to manage the added...

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Switzerland Unemployment in March 2018: Down to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.9 percent

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., May 2013 - Apr 2018
Unemployment registered in March 2018 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of March 2018 130'413 unemployed people were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 13'517 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.2% in February 2018 to 2.9% in the month under review. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 21,867 persons (-14.4%).

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FX Daily, April 09: Asian and European Equities Shrug Off US Decline

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

US shares slumped before the weekend amid concern that Trump Administration was prepared to escalate the trade tensions with China. However, cooler heads are prevailing, and there is a recognition that the conflict is still in the posturing phase. No sanctions have gone to into effect. As the Economist points out, nearly 100 of the Chinese products the US proposed slap a tariff on are not currently being exported to the US. The US has a 60-day...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for the first half of FY2018/19 to 4.7-5.1%. Former South Korean President Park was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Malaysia Prime Minister Razak has called for early elections. Bahrain discovered its biggest oil field since it started producing crude in 1932. Local press reports Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Simsek tendered his resignation.

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Were Trade Wars Inevitable?

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

US National Income, 1960 - 2018
Were trade wars inevitable? The answer is yes, due to the imbalances and distortions generated by financialization and central bank stimulus. Gordon Long and I peel the trade-war onion in a new video program, Were Trade Wars Inevitable?

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Trade War Game On!

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

Ancient Chinese
“Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?” The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee.

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Europe has a lot to lose from trade wars

2018-04-08

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2018-04-08

Any estimate of the economic costs of protectionist measures, let alone trade wars, is subject to uncertainty given the complexity of global supply chains. A common assumption is that new tariffs on exports will produce small direct effects on GDP growth but more significant indirect effects in the event of escalating trade conflicts, including on domestic investment.

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Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’

2018-04-08

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2018-04-08

Cartoon
Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘chance of market panic’. In annual letter to shareholders Dimon warns of increased inflation and interest rates. Concerned QE unwinding could cause chaos as ‘markets will get more volatile’.

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The Dollar Cancer and the Gold Cure

2018-04-08

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2018-04-08

J.M. Keynes
The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate.

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Great Graphic: Has the Dollar Bottomed Against the Yen?

2018-04-07

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2018-04-07

The US dollar appears to be carving a low against the yen. After a significant fall, investor ought to be sensitive to bottoming patterns. The first tell was the key reversal on March 26. In this case, the key reversal was when the dollar made a new low for the move (~JPY104.55) and then rallied to close above the previous session high.

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Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver?

2018-04-07

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2018-04-07

Silver Spot, 1995 - 2018
Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver? Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone silver “set to test the $18 an ounce resistance level”. LBMA report: volume of silver ounces transferred in February fell by 24%. Standard Chartered: gold-silver ratio and supply/demand fundamentals favour silver. Gold/silver ratio at near two-year high on silver’s underperformance. Silver COT reports remain more bullish than at any time in history.

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Playing for All the Marbles

2018-04-07

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2018-04-07

Asset Prices vs GDP, 1992 - 2016
Global Plunge Protection Teams must be ordering take-out food; every night is a long one now. The current stocks/bonds game is for all the marbles, by which I mean the status quo now depends on valuations and interest rates remaining near their current levels for the system to function.

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FX Daily, April 06: Trade Trumps Jobs

2018-04-06

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2018-04-06

Trade and equity market volatility, which are not completely separate, continue to dominate investors' interest. Many had come around to accept that while trade tensions were running high, it was likely to be mostly posturing. This conclusion may have helped lift the S&P 500 around 3% over the past three sessions.

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Swiss corporate tax rates ‘likely to fall’ in some cantons

2018-04-06

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2018-04-06

Impending corporate tax reforms are likely to reduce rates in higher tax cantons, such as Geneva, Vaud and Basel City, according to KPMG. Overall, the business consultancy group expects Switzerland to remain an attractive location for multinational corporations.

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