Monthly Archive: December 2016

FX Daily, December 23: Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

FX Performance, December 23 2016 Movers and Shakers
Asian shares trade heavily. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index ex-Japan fell 0.4%. It is the fourth lower close this week and brings the loss to 1.75% for the week. It is fallen in seven of the past nine weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed on the session and is nursing a minor loss on the week and could snap a two-week advance.

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Sentiment appears positive as investors close their books for the year

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

SMI vs. MSCI World, December 23
Ahead of the Christmas break, trading volumes were thin this week amid a lack of new market catalysts. Swiss and European equities were generally unchanged through the week, tracking global stock markets. Overall, sentiment appears to be positive as investors close their books for the year.

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ECB Assets Hit 35 percent Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Owns 9.2 percent Of European Corporate Bond Market

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

Weekly purchases under the expanded asset purchase programme
As global markets bask in the glow of the Trumpflation recovery, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind what DB recently dubbed global "helicopter money", by buying copious amounts of bonds on a daily basis (at least until tomorrow when the ECB goes on brief monetization hiatus, and Italy will be on its own for the next two weeks).

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Where Do US Companies Hire Abroad?

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not.

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FX Daily, December 22: Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

FX Performance, December 22 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due to investors pulling their funds away from it and into safer haven currencies such as the CHF.

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Inflation Sensation: The New Big Deal

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

Price Buster, Economists forecast inflation will soon break through U.S. and U.K. central banks' goals
It's finally coming. Inflation. President-Elect Donald Trump's promised a whole lot of infrastructure spending, raising the prospects for a great slug of price pressure the likes of which we haven't seen in years. Analysts' forecasts and financial markets show a dramatic shift in view on the outlook for inflation. These charts show some metrics worth watching.

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Why the Massive Expansion of “Money” Hasn’t Trickled Down to “The Rest of Us”

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

MZM Money Stock
There are numerous debates about money: what it is, how we measure it, and so on. In recognition of these debates, I'm referring to "money" in quotes to designate that I'm using the Federal Reserve's measure of money stock (MZM). Nowadays, "money" is often credit. We buy stuff not with currency/ cash, but with credit extended by lenders.

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The hidden cost of Christmas gifts

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

Value Destroying
If you haven’t had a chance to go Christmas shopping don’t despair, gifts destroy value. For example, someone on a diet is unlikely to place much value on a box of chocolates. The difference between what was paid for the chocolates and what the recipient would have paid represents destroyed value. They could have been left on the shelf for someone who would have fully valued them. Economists call this deadweight loss.

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Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch (Costly Sovereign Money)

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

Niepelt Keystone
Eine Umsetzung der Vollgeld-Initiative würde grossen Schaden anrichten und dürfte im Ergebnis selbst die Initianten enttäuschen. Verbesserungen verspricht dagegen eine «sanfte» Reform: die Einführung von elektronischem SNB-Geld für alle.

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Swiss watch exports poised for worst year since 1984: chart

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

Watch Drop Exports of Swiss timepieces
The number of watches Switzerland exports is on track to reach the lowest level since 1984, when digital timepieces were in vogue and Swatch Group AG had just been formed in reaction to low-cost competition.

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FX Daily, December 21: Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

FX Performance, December 21, 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the holiday markets make for light turnover. Global equity markets are not finding much encouragement from the new record highs by the Dow Jones Industrials. There have been a few developments to note.

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You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

BISBCNR Index
Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis.

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The Reign of Bubble Finance

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

Ross Wilbur
Financialization Genius BALTIMORE – When we left you last time, we were in the middle of describing the crooked hind leg of crony capitalism. We used billionaire businessman Wilbur Ross – Donald Trump’s pick for the Department of Commerce – for illustration purposes. Not that there is anything wrong with Mr. Ross. He plays the game, just as everyone else does. He’s particularly good at it.

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Police say no terror links to Zurich mosque gunman

2016-12-20

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2016-12-20

Around 80 people were gathered at the Islamic centre on Monday evening (Keystone)
Police say the man responsible for the shooting incident at the Zurich Islamic Centre on Monday evening was a 24-year-old Swiss with Ghanaian roots. They said there appears to be no link to radical groups. The man's motive for the mosque shooting and a separate murder on Sunday remains unclear.

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Swiss National Bank further strengthens provisions for currency reserves

2016-12-20

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2016-12-20

The Swiss National Bank uses a strange formula on the basis of economic growth for the provisions for FX losses. It would be much easier to connect this number to the size of the balance sheet, e.g. 10% of the balance sheet.

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Swiss to avoid EU clash as immigration bill passes final hurdle

2016-12-20

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2016-12-20

European Comission
After three years of uncertainty, Switzerland may just have solved its immigration dispute with the European Union. Lawmakers in Bern on Friday passed a bill designed to curb EU immigration by giving locals a head start on filling job vacancies. By supporting the measure — which sidesteps quotas — they aim to prevent a deeper dispute that could cost the country crucial trade deals.

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Direct Investments in 2015

2016-12-20

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2016-12-20

Swiss direct investment abroad, Foreign Investment in Switzerland, Swiss subsidiaries abroad
Swiss direct investment abroad. Companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 100 billion abroad, compared with disinvestment of CHF 1 billion the year before. Thus, Swiss direct investment abroad was significantly above the average for the past ten years. At CHF 54 billion, over half of the investment was made by finance and holding companies (2014: CHF 3 billion).

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Fed Rate Hike Causes Gold Price Drop

2016-12-20

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2016-12-20

Long incredulity
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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