Monthly Archive: June 2016

FX Daily, June 15: Key Data and FOMC

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

The Swiss Franc was today on the back-foot against the euro, while the FOMC helped him to rise against the dollar. Yesterday Swiss producer prices were published. Negative changes in producer prices in 2015 reduce the Swiss franc overvaluation in terms of the Real Effective Exchange strongly. Now, however, changes producer prices are approaching zero again.

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Fed Softens Stance Slightly

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

The immediate reaction was driven by the Fed's dot plots.  Although the median continues to expect two hikes this year, six officials now see only one hike.  Only one official anticipated one hike this year in the last forecasts made in March.  The m...

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Kuroda and the BOJ

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

Following today's FOMC meeting, the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, and the UK meet tomorrow.  The SNB will keep its powder dry to be able to respond to the results of the UK referendum if needed.  The Bank of England is als...

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IIF Chief Warns “Brexit Bigger Threat To Global Economy Than Lehman”

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

As Brexit appears to gathering pace among British voters, Bloomberg Briefs interviews Hung Tan, executive managing director at the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC., to understand the global impact of a decision by Britain to leav...

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Claudio Grass Talks to Godfrey Bloom

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

  Introductory Remarks – About Godfrey Bloom [ed note by PT: Readers may recall our previous presentation of “Godfrey Bloom the Anti-Politician”, which inter alia contains a selection of videos of speeches he gave in the European parliament. Both eru...

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FX Daily, June 14: Capital Markets Remain at UK Referendum’s Mercy

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

"The Swiss Franc was the strongest performer, EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.08 by 0.8%". A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit, and the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page, keep the global capital markets on edge. Equities are lower, though of note ahead of the MSCI decision first thing Wednesday in Asia, Chinese shares eked out a small gain.

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The VIX Breaks Out – Market Risk Continues to Surge

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

  The Sharp Move in the VIX Accelerates In Monday’s trading session, the upward move in the volatility index VIX (which measures the implied volatility of SPX options) continued unabated, vastly out of proportion with the move in the underlying stock...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, May 2016: 0.4 percent MoM, -1.2 YoY

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

Swiss Producer Prices
The strongly negative change in producer prices in 2015 reduced the Swiss franc overvaluation in terms of the Real Effective Exchange. Now, however, producer prices are approaching the zero change again. It must also be noted that producer prices had fallen by 6% in 2015, while consumer prices went down only by 1.5%. Large margins are remaining for the Swiss retail sector.

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Stocks Set Another Valuation Record

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

Believe It Or Not… There Actually Is Some Downside Risk BALTIMORE – Not much action in the stock market last week. A few little steps ahead to over the 18,000 line for the Dow. Then a few little steps back. Currently  the index sits at 17,732.   Th...

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Great Graphic: Oil Flirts with Four-Month Uptrend

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

The broader technical tone has weakened.  The RSI has turned lower.  The MACDs are also turning lower with a bearish divergence.  The five-day moving average may move below the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-April later this week....

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US Election Infographic

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

This infographic was in the Wall Street Journal on the US election.  It is important to remember that the US does not elect the President by direct popular vote.  This makes the national polls a bit misleading. There are 538 electoral college votes.  To be elected a candidate must secure a majority or 270  electoral … Continue reading...

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FX Daily, June 13: Brexit Dominates

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

  Swiss Franc Chandler is a bit puzzled about the Swiss Franc, that got stronger despite speculators being short CHF. We see weaker oil prices and weaker China as major reason, why sight deposits are falling and speculators are long the dollar. FX Rates The risk that the UK votes to leave the EU next … Continue reading »

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Democratic Deficit: Is the UK Referendum the Tip of the Iceberg?

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research sur...

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Brexit Paranoia Creeps Into the Markets

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

European Stocks Look Really Bad… Late last week stock markets around the world weakened and it seemed as though recent “Brexit” polls showing that the “leave” campaign has obtained a slight lead provided the trigger. The idea was supported by a not...

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Is It Our Duty to Fight When the Deep State Asks?

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

  Hero or Traitor?   And it’s one, two, three, What are we fighting for? Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn, Next stop is Vietnam; And it’s five, six, seven, Open up the pearly gates, Well there ain’t no time to wonder why, Whoopee! We’re all gonna di...

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Where Then Will Silver Go?

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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What Congress Really Thinks of Voters

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

  Battle of Wits  BALTIMORE – On Wednesday, the Dow rose over 18,000, for the first time since April. Hillary is riding high, too. She is a pro. She has the entire Deep State behind her – including almost every crony and zombie in the country – and a...

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Central Banks & Governments and their gold coin holdings

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

While this is true in some cases, it is not the fully story because many central banks and governments, such as the US, France, Italy, Switzerland, the UK and Venezuela, all hold an element of gold bullion coins as part of their official monetary gold reserves.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

EM ended last week under pressure.  With two potentially disruptive events (FOMC meeting and Brexit vote) still in play, we think that EM softness should carry over into this week.  

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Central Bank Meetings and More

2016-06-12

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2016-06-12

A couple of weeks ago, the four central banks that meet in the coming days were thought to be a big deal.  Numerous Federal Reserve officials were preparing the market for a summer hike. Risks of a new downturn in Japan spurred spe...

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