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FOMC preview: Watch for a subtle shift

Signs of an economic slowdown are here but what will move markets on the FOMC decision are signs of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.
The market can get laser-focused on the small difference between 75 basis points and 100 basis points but what ultimately matters is the terminal destination of rates. Don’t look for the Fed to say anything explicit, like that they see a peak in inflation. The Fed is missing its mandate on price stability badly with inflation at 9.1% y/y and the failure to foresee rising prices or act quickly enough has left it wounded politically. What happens when Fed officials see evidence of rapidly-slowing growth? We may be about to find out. In all likelihood, it means they shift to a slower pace of rate hikes or more of a wait-and-see mode.
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