Tag Archive: Uncategorized

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste – Part I

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that, it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” -Rahm Emanuel, Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff from 2009 to 2010. Only a couple of weeks ago, if anyone told you that your entire country would be basically shutting down, that events and public gatherings would be outlawed, that you’d be looking at empty shelves in your local supermarket and that the global...

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Modern Monetary Theory is an old Marxist Idea

Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT”, has been getting a lot of attention lately, often celebrated as a revolutionary breakthrough. However, there is absolutely nothing new about it. The very basis of the theory, the idea that governments can finance their expenditures themselves and therefore deficits don’t matter, actually goes back to the Polish Marxist economist, Michael Kalecki (1899 – 1970). 

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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets

Claudio Grass (CG): Looking at the interest rate policy of the last years, it would seem that central banks are backed into a corner. They cannot hike borrowing costs without risking a domino effect, as both government and corporate debt have reached record highs, encouraged by the central banks’ own NIRP and ZIRP policies. In your view, is there a “safe” way out of this vicious circle?

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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets

As we embark on this new decade, there are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about gold’s prospects. The global economy and the financial system are already stretched to a breaking point and demand for precious metals is heating up. This, of course, is plain for all to see, even as mainstream investors and analysts still refuse to face facts and prefer to focus on naïve hopes of an eternal expansion.

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Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns

The dollar continues to climb; one of side-effects of the virus has been a swelling of the amount of negative yielding debt globally. The US primary season got off to a rocky start for the Democrats. During the North American session, December factory orders will be reported; the US economy remains strong.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of BOE Decision

The World Health Organization called an emergency meeting today; the dollar continues to climb. The FOMC meeting was a non-event; US advance Q4 GDP will be reported. Risk-off sentiment has derailed curve steepening trades. Implied rates still suggest that today’s BOE meeting is a coin toss.

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Das Internet – die dezentrale (R)Evolution

Menschen werden durch unterschiedliche Motive angetrieben. Die einen sehen das höchste Glück in der Ansammlung von materiellen Werten, und andere sind von geistigen Werten angetrieben. Eine Idee kann genauso wie eine Rolex Glücksgefühle und Ansporn auslösen. Mich persönliche treiben Ideen an.

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What lies ahead for gold in 2020

Over the last few months, gold’s performance has been remarkable. Many market observers and mainstream analysts have pointed to various geopolitical developments in their efforts to explain away the bullishness as a reaction to whatever happens to be in the headlines at the time.

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Investing in crypto the sound way!

I have long been fascinated by the far-reaching consequences and the great potential of the wave of new technologies and ideas that emerged with the crypto revolution. While most of us first came into contact with these concepts in 2017, this tectonic shift that is only just beginning has been in the making for nearly a decade. Now, we begin to see the basic ideas and tools take shape and give rise to endless exciting possibilities that can affect...

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The owl has landed: Lagarde’s new vision for the ECB

On December 12, Christine Lagarde introduced her goals and vision in her first rate-setting meeting as the new President of the ECB. On the actual policy front, there were no surprises. She remained committed to the path set by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, and kept the current monetary stimulus unchanged.

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The ECB’s “mea culpa”

Economists, conservative investors and market observers have been issuing stern warnings for years regarding the severe impact of the current monetary policy direction. In a recent statement, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned of potential side effects and risks to the economy resulting directly from the central bank’s policies.

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A turning point in the bond market?

We’ve recently seen a lot of coverage and even more “expert analyses” on the state of the bond market, to the extent that the average investor, or the average citizen for that matter, is likely to be overwhelmed and very confused about what it all means. Experts from the institutional side and defenders of the current monetary direction argue that it is all the result of policy choices, that’s it’s all under control and that we really shouldn’t...

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Developed market equities update: a fairly reassuring reporting season

There is an ongoing tug-of-war between trade tensions and fundamentals Due to renewed trade tensions, the S&P 500 corrected by 6.0% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8% from the late July peak to the 5 August low. Because the pullback was clustered around just a few days, its intensity was reminiscent of the worst market days of past major crises.

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All this borrowing to consume is unsustainable and the bill is overdue

June has been an interesting month for gold, as geopolitical events, market fluctuations and developments on the monetary policy front fueled an exciting ride for the precious metal. As long-term investors with a strict focus on the big picture, short-term moves and speculative angles are largely irrelevant in and of themselves, but they do provide important signals that, without fail, confirm the strategic superiority of precious metals holdings...

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Gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe

Every seasoned gold investor and every student of monetary history has likely stumbled upon various theories about institutional manipulation of the gold market. While it is true that rarely is there smoke without fire, it is still important to approach this matter rationally and form opinions based on sound evidence and solid research.

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SOUND MONEY: A BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVE – PART II

The value of silver and gold is given by their own nature. Neither gold nor silver has value expressed in other units of account. Their value is expressed directly in their own weights. Everything else that is valuable (other assets, commodities, goods, services, or performed labor) is measured against a certain weight of these metals. In other words, the value of gold and silver is assigned by their own nature, while the value of a transaction is...

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UK Politicians remain stuck in the mire

Next week’s vote on the divorce deal is likely to be defeated, and there is precious little time for an alternative before the Brexit deadline in March.The British parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s EU divorce deal will be on 15 January. The deal is likely to be rejected, as there has been little progress since December, when a first vote was called off for lack of support.

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Emerging market currencies: idiosyncratic risks strike back

The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year.Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latestEM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single attractive EM currency among the...

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Venezuela: when fiat money reaches its intrinsic value

Over the last years, Venezuela has become a modern poster child for the failure of socialism and with good reason. It offers an abundance of lessons and stern warnings for many western nations, but it also provides a very insightful and relevant reminder for individual investors too.

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House View, December 2018

We remain neutral on global equities overall, seeing relatively limited potential for developed market stocks in particular as earnings growth declines. We favour companies with pricing power as well as measurable growth drivers and low leverage.

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