Tag Archive: Uncategorized

Emerging market currencies: idiosyncratic risks strike back

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

EM Scorecard table, December 12, 2018
The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year.Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latestEM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single attractive EM currency among the...

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Venezuela: when fiat money reaches its intrinsic value

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

Hyperinflation Spiral, 2006-2018
Over the last years, Venezuela has become a modern poster child for the failure of socialism and with good reason. It offers an abundance of lessons and stern warnings for many western nations, but it also provides a very insightful and relevant reminder for individual investors too.

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House View, December 2018

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

MSCI China and Emerging Markets Performance, 2018
We remain neutral on global equities overall, seeing relatively limited potential for developed market stocks in particular as earnings growth declines. We favour companies with pricing power as well as measurable growth drivers and low leverage.

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Euro Area: Fiscal Stance chart
Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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Does the recent spate of Central Bank gold buying impact demand and price?

2018-11-05

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2018-11-05

There has been a lot of media coverage recently about the re-emergence of central bank gold buying and the overall larger quantity of gold than central banks as a group have been buying recently compared to previous years. For example, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for Q3 2018, net purchases of gold by central banks in the third quarter of this year were 22% higher than Q3 2017, and the highest quarterly level since Q4 of...

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In surprise move, Central Bank of Hungary announces 10-fold jump in its gold reserves

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Hungary's new Gold Bars
In one of the most profound developments in the central bank gold market for a long time, the Hungarian National Bank, Hungary’s central bank, has just announced a 10 fold jump in its monetary gold holdings. The central bank, known as Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) in Hungarian, made the announcement in Budapest, Hungary’s capital.

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LBMA Clearing and Vaulting data reveal the absurdity of the London ‘Gold’ Market

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

LBMA gold vaulting data report for end of June 2018: Published 1st October
The first day of each month sees the reporting of a number of statistics about the London Gold Market by the bullion bank led London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). These statistics focus on clearing data and vault holdings data and are reported in a 1 month lag basis for clearing activity and a 3 month lag basis for vault holdings data.

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As Emerging Market Currencies Collapse, Gold is being Mobilized

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

EM-cartoon
In recent weeks, global financial markets have been increasingly spooked by an intensifying crisis in emerging market currencies including those of Turkey and Argentina. Add to this the ongoing currency crisis in Venezuela and the currency problems of Iran.

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Annual Mine Supply of Gold: Does it Matter?

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

Cumulative Global Gold Production: 1835 to present day.
The topic of how much extractable gold is left in the world has become increasingly discussed within the last few years. This is because of increased focus on ‘peak gold’ and also a concern about remaining levels of unextracted gold reserves. Peak gold is a term referring to the phenomenon of annual gold mining supply peaking (i.e. the rate of gold extraction increases until it peaks at maximum gold output and subsequently diminishes).

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Spotlight on the HUI and XAU Gold Stock Indexes

2018-08-02

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2018-08-02

NYSE Gold BUGS Index (HUI)
Probably the two best known gold mining stock indexes in the world’s financial markets are the HUI and the XAU. HUI is the ticker symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. XAU is the ticker symbol for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Both of these monikers make an appearance on many gold related websites and many general financial market websites as well, so its worth knowing briefly what these indexes are and what they represent.

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Chinese Gold Market: Still in the Driving Seat

2018-07-20

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2018-07-20

With the first half of 2018 now behind us, it’s an opportune time to look at whats been happening in the Chinese Gold Market. As a reminder, China is the largest gold producer in the world, the largest gold importer in the world, and China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold exchange in the world.

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Gold’s Price Performance: Beyond the US Dollar

2018-07-04

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2018-07-04

With the first half of 2018 now drawn to a close, much of the financial medias’ headlines and commentary relating to the gold market has been focusing on the fact that the US dollar gold price has moved lower year-to-date. Specifically, from a US dollar price of $1302.50 at close on 31 December 2017, the price of gold in US dollar terms has slipped by approximately 3.8% over the last six months to around $1252.50, a drop of US $50.

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Sovereign Money Referendum: A Swiss Awakening to Fractional-Reserve Banking?

2018-06-12

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2018-06-12

On Sunday 10 June 2018, Switzerland’s electorate voted on a referendum calling for the country’s commercial banks to be banned from creating money. In a country world-famous for its banking industry, this was quite an interesting turn of events. Known as the Sovereign Money Initiative or ‘Vollgeld’, the referendum was brought to the Swiss electorate in the form of a ‘Popular Initiative‘.

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Turkey and Russia Highlight Gold’s Role as a Strategically Important Asset

2018-05-03

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2018-05-03

US Federal Reserve Bank Gold Holdings, Mar 2016 - 2018
On 17 April, Turkish news publication Ahval published a report stating that during 2017, Turkey withdrew 26.8 tonnes of gold that it had stored in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve, and moved this gold under the custodianship of the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The source of the Ahval report was a Turkish language article from the popular Hürriyet newspaper in Turkey.

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Spoofing Futures and Banging Fixes: Same Banks, Same Trading Desks

2018-04-22

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2018-04-22

Commodity Futures Trading Commision
On 29 January 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Division of Enforcement together with the Criminal Division of the US Department of Justice and the FBI announced criminal and civil enforcement actions against 3 global investment banks and 5 traders for involvement in trade spoofing in precious metals futures contracts on the US-based Commodity Exchange (COMEX).

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US Gold & Silver Futures Markets: “Easy” Targets

2018-04-13

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2018-04-13

Video Game Sports
Following news coverage of the charging of five precious metals traders and three banks in January, Commodities Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice documents reveal a global criminal cabal of 16 traders operating in at least four major financial institutions between 2008 and 2015 to defraud COMEX gold and silver futures markets.

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China’s Secret Gold Supplier Is Singapore

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

Exports and Imports Preview
Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace. Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future. Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports –...

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Central Banks Care about the Gold Price – Enough to Manipulate it!

2018-03-30

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2018-03-30

Gold for Oil
In early March, RT.com, the Russian based media network, asked me for comments and opinion on the subject of central bank manipulation of gold prices. The comments and opinion that I supplied to RT became the article that RT then exclusively published on its website on 18 March under the title “Central banks manipulating & suppressing gold prices – industry expert to RT“. This article is now transcribed below, here on the BullionStar website.

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Why the World’s Central Banks hold Gold – In their Own Words

2018-03-22

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2018-03-22

World Official Gold Holdings, February 2018
Collectively, the central bank sector claims to hold the world’s largest above ground gold bar stockpile, some 33,800 tonnes of gold bars. Individually within this group, some central banks claim to be the top holders of gold bullion in the world, with individual holdings in the thousands of tonnes range.

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US Gold Reserves, Of Immense Interest to Russia and China

2018-01-22

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2018-01-22

Russia China Real Gold Standart
Recently, Russian television network RT extensively quoted me in a series of articles about the US Government’s gold reserves. The RT articles, published on the RT.com website, were based on a series of questions RT put to me about various aspects of the official US gold reserves. These gold reserves are held by the US Treasury, mostly in the custody of the US Mint. The US Mint is a branch of the US Treasury.

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