Tag Archive: U.K.

Intraday Momentum Indicators Point to a Dollar Recovery After the Employment Report

2022-10-07

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2022-10-07

Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board.

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Volatility Snaps Near-Term Conviction

2022-10-06

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2022-10-06

Overview:  The markets seem to lack conviction today. Stocks in the Asian Pacific region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving up its earlier advance, and US futures are heavier. Australian and New Zealand bonds played catch-up after the rise in the US and Europe yesterday.

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Dollar Slump Halted as Stocks and Bonds Retreat

2022-10-05

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2022-10-05

Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds. The euro traded at par for the first time in two weeks, while sterling reached almost $1.1490, its highest since September 15.

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Stocks and Bonds Extend Rally

2022-10-04

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2022-10-04

The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow.

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Monday Blues

2022-10-03

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2022-10-03

The markets begin October with some trepidation.  Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access. 

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Week Ahead: Macro and Prices

2022-10-01

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2022-10-01

The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50% in the middle of next year. However, by the end of last week, it had returned to around 4.5% at the end of Q1 23.

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Wake Me Up When September Ends

2022-09-30

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2022-09-30

Benchmark 10-year yields are off 6-8 basis points in Europe and the United States. The panic seen at the start of the week in the UK has subsided considerably, as sterling recovered to almost where it was a week ago, while BOE’s hand has help steady the Gilt market. Equities in Asia Pacific suffered after the losses in the US yesterday. Hong Kong and India were notable exceptions.

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Semblance of Calm Returns

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts.

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Sterling Continues to be Pounded

2022-09-26

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2022-09-26

Overview: Sterling’s pounding continued in Asia where it was driven to $1.0350, a new record low before stabilizing. UK rates also continued to rise sharply after the new government promised more tax cuts next year. The right-wing victory in Italy was not surprising but it kept pressure on Italian bonds.

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Markets Remain on Edge

2022-09-14

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2022-09-14

Overview: The firmer than expected US CPI set off a major reversal of the recent price action. It is a two-prong issue. The first is about inflation and the squeeze on the cost-of-living.

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Will the Dollar Recover After CPI?

2022-09-13

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2022-09-13

Overview: The US dollar remains offered ahead of today’s CPI report. Most European currencies are outperforming the dollar bloc, and the greenback is holding inside yesterday’s range against the yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, as well.

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Careful about Chasing the Dollar Lower in North America Today

2022-09-12

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2022-09-12

The bout of profit-taking on long dollar positions begun last week has carried into the start of this week. Despite the escalating rhetoric, the yen is not participating today and is trading within the pre-weekend ranges. The greenback’s lows have been set in the European morning and have stretched the intraday momentum indicators, suggesting that North American dealers may not follow suit.

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US CPI in Focus

2022-09-10

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2022-09-10

The US dollar rally is of historic proportions. Its climb is relentless, though there was around a 4-7% pullback for a few weeks beginning in mid-July. Since then, the greenback has made up for lost time and appreciated to multiyear highs against most of the major currencies. The first real bout of profit-taking in nearly a month seen in recent days looks corrective in nature.  

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The Yen and Yuan Continue to Weaken

2022-09-07

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2022-09-07

While the US dollar appears to be consolidating its recent gains, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan remain under pressure. Officials seem more concerned about the pace of the move than the level it has reached. New and large fiscal initiatives that the new UK government has floated has failed to change sentiment toward sterling, which is the second weakest major currency today after the Japanese yen.

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Aussie Sells Off After RBA Hikes 50 bp while Sterling Bounces on UK New Initiative

2022-09-06

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2022-09-06

Overview: A GBP130 bln initiative by the new UK government to protect households from the surge in power costs helped lift sterling from 2.5-year lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the expected 50 bp rate hike, but the prospect of smaller moves going forward saw the Australian dollar sold through yesterday’s lows.

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What Happened Monday

2022-09-05

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2022-09-05

The US and Canada may have been on holiday on September 5, but the world waits for no one and there were several significant developments. First, Gazprom's decision to indefinitely suspend gas shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced before the weekend saw the European natgas benchmark soar 23.7.

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New Lockdown in China and the First Drop in South Korea’s Chip Exports in 2 years Euthanizes Animal Spirits

2022-09-01

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2022-09-01

Overview: The precipitous fall in equities continues while the dollar remains buoyant. Nvidia’s warnings about US curbs on sales to China and the first drop in South Korea’s chip exports in two years, coupled with the largest lockdown in China since Shanghai encouraged investors to move to the sidelines.

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EMU August CPI at 9.1%, while the Core Rate Jumps to 4.3%

2022-08-31

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2022-08-31

Overview: The rise in global interest rates continues. The US 10-year yield is a few basis points near 3.15% and European benchmarks are mostly 5-6 bp higher. Of note, the sharp sell-off in UK Gilts has being extended. Yesterday’s 10 bp rise has been followed by another 14 bp surge today. Italian bonds are also getting hit. The 10-year yield is up a little more than 10 bp.

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Stocks and Bonds Sell Off, while the Dollar Rallies

2022-08-29

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2022-08-29

Overview: The reverberations from last week continue to roil the capital markets today. Equities and bonds have been sold and the greenback bought. Most of the large markets in Asia Pacific fell by more 2%, including Japan’s Nikkei, Taiwan’s Taiex, and South Korea’s Kospi.

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Jackson Hole and More

2022-08-26

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2022-08-26

Overview: Ahead of the much-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a 75 bp hike next month.  The US 10-year yield is up nearly five basis points today to 3.07% and the two-year yield is firm at 3.38%.  Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with China the main exception among the large markets, after US equities rallied yesterday.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.3% to...

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