Tag Archive: U.K.

While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market...

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Risk On, Dollar Sold

Overview: The post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than 0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...

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Quiet End to a Busy Week

Overview:  The US dollar is winding down this week on a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges. On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this...

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Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan's economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia's jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021.

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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and...

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Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The...

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The US Dollar and Rates Rise Further

Overview: The US dollar and interest rates have continued to rise after the strong employment report before the weekend helped drive home the Fed's message at last week's FOMC meeting. The greenback has been bid to new highs for the year against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar. The dollar also rose to a marginal new high for the year against the Chinese yuan. Interest rates are jumping, and the market has downgraded the chances of a May...

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The Euro and Australian Dollar Take Out January Lows to Start the New Month

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair push against speculation of a March rate cut as explicitly as could be imagined at yesterday's press conference lifted the dollar, while weighing on stocks. US regional banks sold off sharply yesterday, and challenges emanating from US real estate adversely impacted a Japan's Aozora Bank and Deutsche Bank quadrupled its loss provisions for such exposure. The greenback remains bid. The euro and Australian dollar have...

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Oil Retraces Initial Surge, Euro Slips to Marginal New Low, while Sterling Hugs $1.27

Overview: Key developments today include the Hong Kong court ordered liquidation of China's Evergrande and the reversal of oil prices after a sharp rally initially in Asia after separate attack in the Middle East that killed US troops in Jordan and struck a Russian oil tank in the Red Sea. March WTI, which settled near $78 ahead of the weekend, its best level since the end of last November, rallied to about $79.30 before returning to almost $77.50...

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PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements, but USD Pullback may offer New Buying Opportunity in North America

Overview: After a strong showing yesterday, the dollar was sold in Asia and Europe. China announced a cut in reserve requirements and took more informal action to support the stock market, which encouraged risk-taking. Yet, the dollar's decline has stretched intraday momentum indicators, which may provide early operators in North America a new dollar buying opportunity. The ECB and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow, and the US reports its first...

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BOJ Stands Pat, Exit Draws Closer, while HK Liquidity is Squeezed Easing Pressure on the Yuan

Overview:  The dollar remains largely confined to its recent ranges as the consolidative phase extends. The Bank of Japan stood pat and revised its forecasts as it is seen drawing closer another adjustment in policy, with the market still favoring an April timeframe. A squeeze in the Hong Kong money market and talk of a large package to support the equity market helped lift the Chinese yuan for the third consecutive session and lifted Chinese...

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Quiet End to a Busy Week

Overview: The dollar's surge in the first part of the week has given way to consolidation. The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the G10 currencies. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a three advance. Sterling is a notable exception following the weakest retail sales report since 2021. Most emerging market currencies, including China, Taiwan, and Mexico are slightly firmer. US President Biden is expected to sign a bill...

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Stronger-than-Expected UK CPI Helps Steady Sterling after Dollar Rally Extended

Overview: The sharp dollar advance is stabilizing after follow-through gains earlier today. A larger than expected rise in the UK's December CPI helped sterling recover from the push below $1.26, the lower end of a one-month trading range. It is the only G10 currency that is firmer against the dollar ahead of the North American session. ECB's Lagarde pushed back against the early rate cut speculation and this may have stemmed the euro's losses. The...

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Greenback Surges as Rates Back Up

Overview: The US dollar is bid across the board and posting its best session of the month. It is up between about 0.5% (Canadian dollar) to almost 1.0% (Australian dollar) among the G10 currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, only the Russian ruble is holding its own.

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China Data Dump Keeps Market Looking for a Rate Cut Next Week

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are...

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Consolidative Tone Emerges Ahead of Tomorrow’s US Jobs and EMU CPI

Overview: After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia, like the South Korean won and Thai baht. Still, the general tone is consolidative ahead of tomorrow US jobs data and the eurozone's CPI....

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Firm Start for the Greenback

Overview: The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the...

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Soft US CPI Today Paves Way for Fed Pivot Tomorrow

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against all the G10 currencies ahead of what is expected to be a soft November CPI report, which paves the way for a pivot by the FOMC tomorrow. It is expected to signal that policy may be sufficiently restrictive and anticipate being able to cut rates next year more than it thought in September, even if not as much as is priced into the market. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies...

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Softer Tokyo CPI Buys BOJ Time while Moody’s Cuts the Outlook for China’s Debt following Fiscal Stimulus and the Continued Property Slump

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected...

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What Will Powell Say?

Overview: The dollar traded better into month-end but is softer today. The Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies are leading with around 0.2%-0.5% gains. In addition to US manufacturing PMI and ISM surveys, and construction spending, auto sales will trickle in, but key for market participants today will likely be Fed Chair Powell's comments and the extent that he pushes against the dramatic rate cuts, with more than a 50% chance of the first cut by...

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