Tag Archive: U.K.

FX Daily, August 07: Outlaw Mondays

The US dollar is narrowly mixed to start the new week. Two main developments stand out. First, the dollar-bloc currencies are trading heavily. The Australian dollar is pushing lower for the fifth consecutive session. The greenback is advancing against the Canadian dollar for the sixth consecutive session. The New Zealand dollar is weaker for the fifth time in six sessions.

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FX Weekly Preview: Don’t Be Confused by the Facts or Why Neither the Data nor the Fed Will Alter Market Trends

FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume.

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FX Daily, June 22: Greenback Goes Nowhere Quickly, While Yen Remains Bid

The summer doldrums begin early. The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Bond yields are mostly one-two basis points lower, and equity markets are mixed but with a downside bias. Oil prices slump more than 2% on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. This is weighing on bond yields and equities.

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FX Daily, May 05: Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk

The US dollar is narrowing mixed as the employment data, and Fed speeches are awaited. Six Fed officials speak today, including Yellen and Fischer. Regional Presidents Williams, Rosengren Evans and Bullard also speak. It will be the first flurry of speeches since the FOMC meeting.

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To The Asian ‘Dollar’, And Then What?

The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property).

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead

Provided Le Pen and Macron or Fillion make to the second round, the market response to the French election results may be short lived. BOJ, Riksbank and ECB meetings. Spending authorization and some announcement from the White House on tax policy are in focus as Trump's 100th day in office approaches.

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May’s Early Election Bid Sends Sterling on Roller Coaster

May calls snap election for June 8. Tories running 20 percent point lead over Labour. Next election would be in 2022, after the Brexit negotiations conclude.

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FX Daily, April 11: Dollar Pushed Lower in Subdued Activity

The US dollar has a slight downside bias today through the European morning. The market does not seem particularly focused on high frequency data, though sterling traded higher after an unchanged year-over-year reading of 2.3%, and the euro traded higher after a stronger Germany ZEW survey.

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FX Weekly Preview: A New Phase Begins

There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors' willingness to look past Q1 economic data.

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How The West Has Been Selling Gold Into A Black Hole

In December 2016 Chinese wholesale gold demand, measured by withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), accounted for 196 tonnes, down 9 % from November. December was still a strong month for SGE withdrawals due to the fact the gold price trended lower before briefly spiking at the end of the month, and the Chinese prefer to buy gold when the price declines (see exhibit 1).

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FX Daily, January 11: Dollar Comes Back Bid

The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair.

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Busy Week for the UK

The UK reports inflation, employment and retail sales this week. The BOE meets but will keep rates steady. The US 2-year premium over the UK is the highest since at least 1992 today.

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Toward a New World Order, Part II

One of the most widespread misconceptions in the realm of politics is the notion of a left-right axis. This has been used over and over to explain political outcomes and paint the various factions as polar opposites. For example, in the US the two main parties, the Republicans (right) and Democrats (left), are often portrayed as a fight between good and evil.

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Toward a New World Order?

A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future.

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US Political Anxiety Stems Bond Sell-Off

Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground.

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Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

CPI UK CPI US, CPI Eurozone
Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

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The Road to Fascism in Just Two Charts

Laws of politics have been turned upside down. The Intellectuals Yet Idiots can make no sense of it. The underdog who ‘tell it how it is’ appeal to people while established reasoning does not.

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen Pushes Divergence Front and Center

The summer dynamics of the capital markets has changed by the enhanced prospects of a Fed hike. Equity markets and other risk assets look particularly vulnerable. Sterling may do better against the euro than the dollar.

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No Big Thoughts, but Several Smaller Observations

Notable that as the CRB Index moves lower, MSCI emerging market equities have done well. European banks are retreating after the stress test results. Tokyo elected its first women governor as this seem to be in part a sign of protest against Abe.

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FX Weekly Preview: EMU Returns to Center Stage in the Week Ahead

Key event in Europe is not on many calendars--it is a ruling by the European Court of Justice. UK government and Tory Party stabilizing, leaving the Labour Party in disarray. US economy appears to have accelerated into the end of Q2. BOJ's meeting at the end of the month.

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