Tag Archive: U.K.
Dollar’s Rally Pauses Near Key Levels
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a slightly
heavier tone in the European morning. It has stalled in front of JPY145.90,
where the BOJ intervened last September and ahead of CNY7.30, which some
observers think Chinese officials are defending. We are less convinced that
either central bank has drawn a line at a particular level and suspect it is
too early to be confident that the greenback has peaked against either. On the
back of yesterday's...
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Surprise-Packed Tuesday: China Cut Rates, Japan’s Q2 GDP Rises Twice as Fast as Expected, and UK Wages Accelerate
Overview: Today's highlights include a surprise rate
cut from China after another series of disappointing data and much stronger
than expected Japanese Q2 GDP (6% annualized pace). The UK reported an
unexpected sharp jump in average weekly earnings, which were sufficient to get
renew speculation of a 50 bp hike by the Bank of England next month. The US
dollar is mixed. The Swedish krona and dollar-bloc currencies are struggling,
while the Swiss...
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Greenback Remains Firm, with Yen and Aussie Falling to New 2023 Lows
Overview: The dollar and US rates remain firm. The
greenback rose to new highs for the year against the Japanese yen and
Australian dollar before steadying. Outside of the Swedish krona, which is off
nearly 0.5%, the G10 currencies are nursing small losses late in the European
morning, mostly less than 0.1%. Most emerging market currencies are also lower. The Chinese
yuan gapped lower for the second consecutive session and is also approaching
this...
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Dollar Proves Resilient and Even Strong UK GDP Figures Hardly Dents It
Overview: The dollar's resilience after initially
selling off in response to the as-expected CPI was impressive. A quieter tone
is dominating today and most of the G10 currencies are +/- 0.15%. While the
dollar is consolidating, the underlying tone is still firm. For the week, it
has risen against all the major currencies and the Dollar Index is up nearly
0.6% this week, its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The greenback is rising
today against most...
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US Jobs Report and OPEC Statement Featured Ahead of the Weekend
Overview: The
capital markets are calmer today but the US (and Canadian) jobs data stand in
the way of the weekend. While equity markets are firmer, the rise in yields
continues with new highs for the week being recorded today. European benchmark
yields are 2-3 bp higher and the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.20%.
Most of the large market in the Asia Pacific region advanced, but South Korea
and Taiwan where the superconductor...
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RBA Holds Fire, Greenback Rebounds
Overview: The dollar has
come back bid. It is rising against all the major currencies today. The Reserve
Bank of Australia left rates steady and the poor Chinese Caixin PMI is weighing
on the Australian dollar, which is off about 1.25% today. Sterling is the best
G10 performer, off about 0.1%. Perhaps, the BOE's meeting on Thursday is
helping to deflect some of the selling pressure. Emerging market currencies are
also nearly all lower, led by the...
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BOJ Moves to Slow JGB Sell-Off, while Month-End is Making for Subdued Price Action in FX outside the Yen
Overview: The Bank of Japan took the market by
surprise with its adjustment of the cap on the 10-year yield before the
weekend, and then stepped in to buy the government bond as yields rose in
reaction today. The move helped lift the dollar to JPY142.50. from where it had
settled on Friday (~JPY141.15). The dollar is mostly softer, however, with only
the yen and Swiss franc weaker. The Australian dollar is leading the other
currencies higher ahead...
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Bond Rally Continues, Greenback Consolidates with Softer Bias
Overview: The main development in the capital
markets is the decline in yields. In Europe, benchmark 10-year yields are off
7-11 bp today, extending the move that began last week. The 10-year Germany
Bund yield peaked last Thursday near 2.68% and is near 2.40% now. Similarly,
the 10-year Italian yield has fallen from 4.42% to below 4.05% today. The
10-year US Treasury yield fell in five of the last six sessions and is off
almost five basis points...
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Euro Edges Higher
Overview: The US dollar has mostly steadied at
the start of the week after last week's sharp losses. The yen, euro, and Swiss
franc are enjoying a firmer tone, but only the euro has thus far extended
last week's gains, and then, only marginally. Uninspiring data from China
pressed the yuan lower, while the firm euro is helping the central European
currencies. A typhoon shut Hong Kong markets and Japan's markets were closed
for a national holiday....
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Dollar Sell-Off is Getting Stretched
Overview: Softer-than-expected US CPI, following
weaker than expected job growth has sent the greenback tumbling. The dollar is
stabilizing against the yen today, but the downside momentum is intact against
the other major currencies. The euro approached $1.1175, sterling $1.3080, and
the greenback slumped to almost CHF0.8615. The Australian dollar reached $0.6850,
and the New Zealand dollar tested $0.6360. The Canadian dollar, often a laggard
in a...
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Powerful Short Squeeze Continues to Lift the Yen
Overview: The greenback remains under pressure. The
yen's short squeeze continues, and strong wage growth has helped lift sterling
to new highs since last April. Among the G10 currencies, only the Australian
and New Zealand dollars are unable to sustain gains through the European
morning. Emerging market currencies are also advancing, with a couple of
exceptions, including the Turkish lira despite reports on foreign equity
inflows. The weaker...
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Sobering PMI Readings Sap Risk Appetites
Overview: As US markets prepare to re-open from yesterday's holiday, the dollar
is trading mostly higher, though the euro and yen are steady to slightly firmer.
Narrow ranges are prevailing. The Canadian and Australian dollars are
exceptions and are off about 0.3%. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower,
including Russia, China, South Africa, and Turkey. Final service and composite
PMIs were mostly revised lower in Japan, Australia, and the...
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The Greenback Starts H2 on a Firm Note
Overview: The dollar is recovering from the
month-end losses seen at the end of last week. Only the New Zealand dollar
among the G10 currencies is holding its own. Japanese reports indicate that Tokyo
is in contact with the US Treasury about intervention, which is injecting a
note of caution as the greenback holds below JPY145.00. Chinese officials also
appear to be stepping up their efforts to stabilize the yuan. Among emerging
market currencies,...
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Market Continues to Converge With Fed’s Forward Guidance
Overview: A key development in recent days has been
the market's convergence with the Federal Reserve's forward guidance regarding
scope for two quarter-point hikes in the second half. The US two-yield is up
about six basis points today, extending yesterday's 15 bp increase. It is
approaching 5%. The Fed funds futures strip implies one hike has been fully
priced in and about a third of the next one. The dollar has risen against all
the G10...
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Greenback Jumps on Weak Flash PMIs
Overview: As the market reluctantly edges toward the
Fed's guidance, the disappointing PMIs from Europe (but also Japan and
Australia) helped boost the greenback. The Dollar Index is trading at seven-day
highs above 103 after briefly dipping below 102 to set a new low since mid-May
yesterday. The unwinding of cross positions is helping the yen hold its own
today as it consolidates near its worst level of the year. The surging dollar
and risk-off...
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UK Inflation Surprises to the Upside and Weighs on Sterling
Overview: The UK surprised with higher-than-expected consumer
inflation and budget deficit, and the odds of a 50 bp hike tomorrow edged
higher. Sterling has been sold on the news and is the weakest of the G10
currencies, off about 0.5%. The dollar is mixed with the euro, Swedish krona,
Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc posting small gains. Emerging market
currencies are lower, including the Chinese yuan, which is at new lows since
last November. The...
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Scandis and Antipodeans Lead the Greenback’s Recovery
Overview: The market continues to resist the Fed's
signal that another 50 bp of hikes may be necessary to ensure inflation is
headed toward its target. Previously, the market had rate cuts priced in, and
it took some time for the Fed's push back to be accepted. The market converged
with the Fed, and this helped the dollar recover. We suspect a similar pattern
to play out again. The market does not have even one of the two Fed hikes
discounted. As...
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Fed Day: Skip = Hawkish Pause, but Market Says Finito
Overview: The year-end effective Fed funds rate
implied in the futures market is about 5.11%. The rate has been averaging 5.08%
since the Fed hiked rates last month The Fed may go to pains to explain that
the steady that to be announced later today is just a pause to get a better
read on the economy, the market favors this to be the end of the tightening
cycle. The dollar is trading softer against nearly all the G10 currencies. Emerging
market...
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PBOC Surprise Rate Cut and a Strong UK Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI
Overview: A surprise cut in China's seven-day repo
and a stronger than expected UK employment report are session's highlights
ahead of the US CPI. The base effect alone suggests a sharp fall in the
year-over-year rate, while the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has been
shaved to a 0.1% month-over-month gain. The dollar is under pressure and is
weaker against nearly all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the emerging
market currencies....
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Ahead of the Week’s Central Bank Meetings, Risk Appetites Stoked
Overview: Today may be the calm ahead of a
tomorrow's US CPI and rate decisions by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC over the
next few days. Most large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose and Europe's
Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline. US index futures are trading higher.
US 10-year yield is slightly firmer as are core European benchmark yields. The
dollar is under broad pressure and is weaker against the G10 currencies. Against
emerging...
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