Tag Archive: U.K.

Tough Fed Decisions

2023-03-22

by

2023-03-22

Overview: The market has concluded that the Fed will hike rates today. The US two-year yield has risen from about 3.63% at Monday's lows almost 4.20% yesterday. It needs to rise to 4.35% to recover half of its decline since March 8 but has come back softer today. Meanwhile, the banking crisis continues to ease, and Europe's Stoxx 600 bank index is up 1.5%, its third consecutive advance. The US KBW bank index rallied almost 5% yesterday. Still,...

Read More »

Investor Anxiety Continues to Run High even If More Comfortable ECB 50 BP Tomorrow and 25 bp Next Week by the Fed

2023-03-15

by

2023-03-15

Overview: The capital markets remain unsettled. Asia-Pacific bourses rose, but European markets are sharply lower, with the Stoxx 600 off 1.3%, giving back the lion's share of yesterday's gains and US equity futures are lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are off 3-9 bp in Europe, with widening core-periphery yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is off a dozen basis points to about 3.56%. Two-year yields are also sharply lower, led by the 15-16...

Read More »

Does the US Inflation Report Matter or Has it Been Superseded by Deflationary Forces of a Financial Crisis?

2023-03-14

by

2023-03-14

Overview: The dramatic shift in expectations for Fed policy is a potent shock, with reverberations throughout the capital markets.  The business press was full of accounts putting the nearly 50 bp decline in the US two-year note in an historical perspective. Yesterday, it fell by 61 bp as the market continued to unwind Fed hikes and reprice the chances of a cut as early as Q2. While the poorly received bill auctions suggests not significant deposit...

Read More »

Concerns Over US Banks Rival Today’s Jobs Report

2023-03-10

by

2023-03-10

Overview: The unexpectedly large rise in US weekly jobless claims, the largest since the end of last September and concerns about the impact of the sharp rise in interest rates on the liquidity and value of assets (bonds) owned by small and medium-sized banks saw the market unwind the effect of Fed Chair Powell's comments. The yield on the US two-year note slumped almost 20 bp to 4.87% yesterday and fell to 4.75% today before stabilizing (~4.82%)....

Read More »

Higher for Longer Helps the Dollar while Weighs on Equities

2023-03-02

by

2023-03-02

Overview: The jump in prices paid in yesterday's US ISM manufacturing coupled with the stronger eurozone inflation, with a new cyclical high reported in the core rate, underscores the market theme of higher-for-longer. This is seen as dollar supportive but also negative for risk-assets, including and especially equities. European benchmark 10-year yields are up another couple of basis points today and the 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above...

Read More »

Potential Brexit Breakthrough Helps Sterling, while France and Spain Report Stronger Price Pressures

2023-02-28

by

2023-02-28

Overview: There are two important developments. First, the stronger than expected February inflation reports from France and Spain have sparked a jump in European interest rates and the swaps market is beginning to price in a 4% terminal rate by the European Central Bank. The deposit rate is now at 2.50% and is widely expected to rise to 3.0% in the middle of next month. Second, a tentative agreement to resolve the dispute over the Northern Ireland...

Read More »

Markets Catch Collective Breath

2023-02-27

by

2023-02-27

Overview: After last week's flurry of activity that saw the US dollar extend its recovery, it has begun off the new week largely consolidating in relatively narrow ranges. The Australian and New Zealand dollar's remains softer, and the Swiss franc is virtually flat, but the other G10 currencies, led by sterling are posting small gains. A break-through on the Northern Ireland protocol, which has been rumored for a more than a week may be announced...

Read More »

Upside Surprise in UK’s Flash PMI and Better-than-Expected January Public Finances Lift Sterling

2023-02-21

by

2023-02-21

Overview: Rising interest rates are weighing on risk appetites and the dollar is broadly stronger. Sterling is a notable exception after a stronger than expected flash PMI and better than expected public finances. The correlation between higher US rates and a weaker yen is increasing and the greenback looks poised to rechallenge the JPY135 area. A slightly better than expected preliminary PMI and hawkish minutes from the recent RBA meeting has done...

Read More »

Monday: A Short Note while US is on Holiday

2023-02-20

by

2023-02-20

The dollar is mostly softer, but turnover is mostly quiet.  The Swedish krona leads the move after higher-than-expected underlying inflation.  It is a mild risk-on day with equities moving higher too.  In the Asia Pacific region, China stood with the CSI 300 up almost 2.5%.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up fractionally to recoup most of the pre-weekend decline.  US equity futures are narrowly mixed.  European bond yields are little changed, with a couple...

Read More »

Dramatic Swing in Sentiment Extends the Greenback’s Rally

2023-02-17

by

2023-02-17

Overview:  A series of strong US high-frequency data points after a poor finish to last year has spurred a dramatic shift in market expectations. And talk among a couple of (non-voting) FOMC members of a 50 bp hike has provided added fodder. The greenback is extending its recovery today against all the major currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit the hardest. Emerging market currencies have also been knocked back. This is part...

Read More »

US Dollar Comes Back Better Bid

2023-02-15

by

2023-02-15

Overview: Although the US January CPI was in line with expectations, the year-over-year rate was a little firmer than expected. Still, the measure that Fed Chair Powell has underscored, core services, excluding shelter, moderated with a 0.3% month-over-month gain. US rates shot up and this lent the dollar support, while weighing on equities and risk sentiment. The US two-year note yield rose to almost 4.64% yesterday, the highest in three months....

Read More »

Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI

2023-02-14

by

2023-02-14

The focus is on the US CPI report today, but the price action is anything but intuitive. Although the revisions of the basket and methodological changes reinforce expectations for the largest rise in three months, the US dollar continues to trade heavily after rallying last week. The dollar-bloc currencies are underperforming today. And US rates are softer. The US 2- and 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower.

Read More »

A Day of Surprises

2023-02-10

by

2023-02-10

(I am on a business trip and did not intend to post any analysis today. However, there have been a number of unexpected developments that warrant some commentary. Thanks for bearing with me.) Japanese press reports that the BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya turned down the opportunity to become the next BOJ governor. Instead, next week, former BOJ board member Kazuo Ueda will be nominated. The market reacted dramatically, taking the yen sharply higher...

Read More »

Markets Calm after Dramatic Swings on Powell’s Comments

2023-02-08

by

2023-02-08

The US dollar is mostly trading with a downside bias today against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. It had begun the week extending the gains spurred by the dramatic jump in nonfarm payrolls and the strong ISM services survey. Market expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy in the first part of this year converged with the Fed's December dot plot. The market now leans toward two more quarter-point hikes this year.

Read More »

Position Adjustments at Month-End and Ahead of FOMC Outcome Lifts the Greeenback

2023-01-31

by

2023-01-31

Overview: A combination of month-end adjustments and positioning ahead of the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting has taken the shine off equities and has helped lift the dollar. On the heels of yesterday's sharp decline on Wall Street, several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including China's CSI 300, the Hang Seng, and both South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex fell by more than 1%. Although the eurozone eked out a small expansion in Q4...

Read More »

Anti-Climactic Return of China

2023-01-30

by

2023-01-30

Overview: The re-opening of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday, was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...

Read More »

No Follow-Through Euro Buying while S&P Holds Yesterday’s Breakout

2023-01-24

by

2023-01-24

Overview:  A quiet consolidative session has been recorded so far today as North American leadership is awaited. The preliminary PMI readings are mixed. Japan and the eurozone look somewhat better, but Australia and the UK disappointed.  The dollar is trading with a mostly firmer bias, but largely confined to yesterday's ranges.  The markets seem to be looked ahead toward next week's Fed, ECB, and BOE meetings, and the return of China from this...

Read More »

Dismal UK Retail Sales Weigh on Sterling, While the Yen Softens

2023-01-20

by

2023-01-20

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites...

Read More »

The BOJ Surprises by Standing Pat

2023-01-18

by

2023-01-18

Overview: The BOJ defied speculation and stuck to its current policy, which saw the yen sell-off sharply. The dollar rallied about 3.4 yen before falling back. The greenback is broadly lower against the other G10 currencies. However, for the fifth consecutive session, the euro has stalled around $1.0870. While UK headline inflation softened, mostly due to fuel, core prices were unchanged, and this may have helped sterling extend its recent gains to...

Read More »

With Trepidation, the Market Awaits the BOJ

2023-01-17

by

2023-01-17

With the market nearly ruling out a 50 bp hike by the Federal Reserve on February 1, the interest rate adjustment appears to have largely run its course. This may be helping to ease the selling pressure on the greenback.

Read More »