Tag Archive: Real Estate

The Big Swiss Faustian Bargain: Differences between SNB, ECB and Fed Money Printing Explained

2012-09-03

In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits … Continue reading »

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Is the SNB prepared for the black swan ?

2012-06-14

by George Dorgan

2012-06-14

Will the SNB printing policy lead to inflation and a housing bust when Germany leaves the Euro ? Recently the voices for a German euro exit have become louder and louder. The most recent voice comes from Biderman , the FT says that the rise of German Bunds holds the secret how the eurozone crisis will … Continue reading...

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The German supply-side reforms or will German companies take over the PIIGS ?

2012-06-02

by George Dorgan

2012-06-02

Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type … Continue...

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The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia

2012-06-01

by George Dorgan

2012-06-01

Still a draft, From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main …

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The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?

2012-05-12

by George Dorgan

2012-05-12

The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

by George Dorgan

2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years

2012-03-25

by George Dorgan

2012-03-25

home prices ireland, spain, uk, france, usa, germany, switzerland 1990-2008

Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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