Tag Archive: OPEC

OPEC+ Surprises while Manufacturing Remains Challenged

2023-04-03

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2023-04-03

Overview: News of OPEC+ unexpected output cuts saw May WTI gap sharply higher and helped lift bond yields. May WTI settled near three-week highs before the weekend near $75.65 and opened today near $80. It reached almost $81.70 before stabilizing and is straddling the $80 area before the North American session. The high for the year was set in the second half of January around $83. Benchmark 10-year yields are up 2-5 bp points. The 10-year US...

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Greenback Extends Recovery

2023-02-06

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2023-02-06

Overview: The honeymoon for risk assets that began the year ended with a bang at the end of last week with the monster US jobs report and the rebound in the service ISM. Disappointing news from several large US tech companies provided extra encouragement. The yen's weakness helped Japanese stocks today, but the other larger bourses in the Asia Pacific area were sold, with losses in Hong Kong, the CSI 300, South Korea, and Taiwan off more than 1%....

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China Steps away from the Abyss and Animal Spirits are Rekindled

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

Overview: Chinese officials using the carrot and the stick have succeeded in dampening the protests and easing some anxiety and rekindled the animal spirits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 5.25% and its index of mainland shares surged 6.20%.

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No Rest for the Weary: The Week Ahead

2022-10-08

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2022-10-08

In Volcker's days, when he used money supply to justify tightening monetary policy despite high unemployment, the money supply was released while markets were open, and it was The report. Later, by the mid-1980s, leading up to the Plaza Agreement, the deterioration of the US monthly trade balance was critical.

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Volatility Snaps Near-Term Conviction

2022-10-06

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2022-10-06

Overview:  The markets seem to lack conviction today. Stocks in the Asian Pacific region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving up its earlier advance, and US futures are heavier. Australian and New Zealand bonds played catch-up after the rise in the US and Europe yesterday.

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What Happened Monday

2022-09-05

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2022-09-05

The US and Canada may have been on holiday on September 5, but the world waits for no one and there were several significant developments. First, Gazprom's decision to indefinitely suspend gas shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced before the weekend saw the European natgas benchmark soar 23.7.

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Aussie Hit with Profit-Taking after RBA Hikes 50 bp

2022-08-02

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2022-08-02

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session, and by the most (~0.60%) since mid-July. US futures are also weaker. Benchmark 10-year rates are lower.

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Dollar Gains Pared

2022-06-02

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2022-06-02

Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower.  China and India bucked the trend.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is steady with no follow through selling after yesterday reversal. US index futures are posting modest gains and are trying to snap a two-day drop. 

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Tech Sell-Off Continues

2021-11-23

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2021-11-23

Overview:  The markets are unsettled.  Bond yields have jumped, tech stocks are leading an equity slump, and yesterday's crude oil bounce reversed.  Gold, which peaked last week near $1877, has been dumped to around $1793.  The tech sell-off in the US carried into the Asia Pacific session, and Hong Kong led most markets lower.  The local holiday let Japanese markets off unscathed, though the Nikkei futures are off about 0.4%.  Australia and India...

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FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday. There has been no follow-through activity. Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions.

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FX Daily, November 30: Equities are Heavy and the Dollar Softer to Start New Week

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Overview: Month-end profit-taking saw Asia Pacific shares tumble earlier today.  Most markets are off 1-2.5% today after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.25% last week.  European shares are mixed, but little changed.  US shares are also trading lower. 

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FX Daily, April 10: Eight Things to Know about Global Capital Markets on Good Friday

2020-04-10

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2020-04-10

Most of the financial centers in Europe and North America are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.  Many markets in Europe will also be closed on Monday. Here is a summary of key developments.

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FX Weekly Preview: Events + Market = Potential for Combustible Price action

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let's briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

CBOE VIX Gauge, 1990 - 2019
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Volatility Pops, August 08 2017
US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

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Progress in St. Petersburg

2017-07-27

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2017-07-27

Expectations going into the OPEC monitoring meeting in St. Petersburg were low. The OPEC agreement to reduce output appeared to be fraying. June output appeared to have increased in several countries, and private sector estimates suggest output rose further in July. Russia expressed reluctance to extend the agreement further.

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FX Weekly Preview: Don’t Be Confused by the Facts or Why Neither the Data nor the Fed Will Alter Market Trends

2017-07-24

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2017-07-24

FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume.

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New Gold Pool at the BIS Switzerland: A Who’s Who of Central Bankers

2017-06-13

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2017-06-13

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Headquarters
A central bank Gold Pool which many people will be familiar with operated in the gold market between November 1961 and March 1968. That Gold Pool was known as the London Gold Pool.

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Great Graphic: Don’t be Misled by Sterling Stability, Investors are Concerned

2017-06-06

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2017-06-06

The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the options skew (three-month 25 delta risk reversal) in the white line, and sterling is the yellow line. The takeaway is that the market appears to be more nervous than the relatively firm sterling in the spot market suggests. Typically, one might expect those with sterling exposure to sell calls (and receive funds) rather than buy puts (new expenditure).

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A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

hind-sight
A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project.

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