Tag Archive: OPEC

FX Weekly Preview: Events + Market = Potential for Combustible Price action

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let's briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

CBOE VIX Gauge, 1990 - 2019
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Volatility Pops, August 08 2017
US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

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Progress in St. Petersburg

2017-07-27

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2017-07-27

Expectations going into the OPEC monitoring meeting in St. Petersburg were low. The OPEC agreement to reduce output appeared to be fraying. June output appeared to have increased in several countries, and private sector estimates suggest output rose further in July. Russia expressed reluctance to extend the agreement further.

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FX Weekly Preview: Don’t Be Confused by the Facts or Why Neither the Data nor the Fed Will Alter Market Trends

2017-07-24

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2017-07-24

FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume.

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New Gold Pool at the BIS Switzerland: A Who’s Who of Central Bankers

2017-06-13

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2017-06-13

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Headquarters
A central bank Gold Pool which many people will be familiar with operated in the gold market between November 1961 and March 1968. That Gold Pool was known as the London Gold Pool.

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Great Graphic: Don’t be Misled by Sterling Stability, Investors are Concerned

2017-06-06

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2017-06-06

The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the options skew (three-month 25 delta risk reversal) in the white line, and sterling is the yellow line. The takeaway is that the market appears to be more nervous than the relatively firm sterling in the spot market suggests. Typically, one might expect those with sterling exposure to sell calls (and receive funds) rather than buy puts (new expenditure).

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A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

hind-sight
A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project.

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WTI Crude tumbles To $49 Handle, Erases OPEC/NOPEC Deal Gains

2016-12-15

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2016-12-15

WTI Crude
But, but, but... growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again... Well that de-escalated quickly... As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th.

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FX Daily, December 12: Dollar and Yen Trade Lower to Start the Week

2016-12-12

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2016-12-12

FX Performance, December 12 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower. The tone is largely consolidative, and the foreign exchange market is not main focus today. Instead, the OPEC-non-OPEC agreement before the weekend is arguably the key driver today. Oil prices are up 4.5%-4.8%, lifting bond yields and supporting oil producers' currencies, like the Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble and Mexican peso.

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Swiss 10 year bond yields still negative, but approaching zero.

2016-12-12

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2016-12-12

Treasury Yields
The global bond rout returned with a bang, sending 10Y US Treasury yields as much as six basis points higher to 2.53%, the highest level in over two years. The selloff happened as oil prices surged by more than 5% following Saturday's agreement by NOPEC nations agreed to slash production, leading to rising inflation pressures. At last check, the 10Y was trading at 2.505%, up from 2.462% at Friday and on track for its highest close since September...

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FX Daily, November 30: Renewed OPEC Hopes and Month End Featured

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

FX Performance, November 30 2016 Movers and Shakers
Rates for buying Swiss Francs dollars remain incredibly subdued post Brexit but there has been a general improvement over the last month. Rates for the moment appear to have found support over 1.24 for GBP CHF and this has largely come about following the Trump US presidential election victory. Despite a leaked government document titled Have cake and eat it, the markets and sterling were largely unphased.

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“Subtle forward guidance”: The marriage between best practice central banking and commodity markets

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

In the years following the 2008 crash and today, the use of forward guidance from central banking policy makers has become increasingly important. What this nonsense ultimately has translated into is a ridiculous track record in posting upbeat assessments on the economic environment, aimed at trying to fool the marginal investor into believing “there are no need for worry, central bankers have everything under control”.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics to Overshadow Economics in the Week Ahead

2016-09-25

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2016-09-25

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left. There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead. The main focus for most investors will be on several political developments. The first US Presidential debate is wild card, in the sense that the outcome is unknown. In recent weeks, the polls have drawn close. In early August, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com, the gold...

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The Dos Santos Succession Saga

2016-08-21

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2016-08-21

Arguably one of the easier calls for us to make after 37 years in power was that President dos Santos would find ways of affording himself another 5 years in. Like any ‘effective’ leader, Mr. Santos made sure the final deal to do just that was stitched up long before the Party Congress formally convenes in Luanda, with a lower level MPLA ‘Central Committee’ already rubber stamping his name in mid-August.

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The World’s Central Banks Are Making A Big Mistake

2016-07-20

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2016-07-20

While everyone was talking about Brexit last month, the Bank for International Settlements released its 86th annual report. Based in Basel, Switzerland, the BIS functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments.

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Saudi-Arabia: Peg or Banking Crisis?

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

During the reign of the mighty petro-dollar standard, it was necessary for major oil exporters to recycle their dollar holdings back into the dollar-based financial system to maintain their self-imposed exchange rate pegs. US government bonds are the...

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OPEC’s Game within a Game

2016-06-02

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2016-06-02

The fact OPEC just agreed to agree on nothing in Vienna. What next? Lots of noise about collective output vs. country allocations.

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Can OPEC Surprise?

2016-06-01

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2016-06-01

OPEC ministers meet in Vienna tomorrow. Expectations could hardly be lower.  Attempts to agree on an output freeze were stymied by the Saudi’s insistence that is rival Iran participates as well.  Iran cannot agree to limit its production yet, or it would have sacrificed (or postponed) it nuclear program for nought.   Many observers have announced …

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Venezuela’s Gold Reserves Plunge To Lowest Ever As Maduro Repays Debt With Gold

2016-05-29

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2016-05-29

Several months ago, as Venezuela's hyperinflating, imploding economy was spinning in freefall, leading to the dramatic episodes of total social collapse such as those profiled in "Scenes From The Venezuela Apocalypse: "Countless Wounded" After 5,000 ...

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