Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, January 28: Getting Ducks Lined Up for Later in the Week

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week's big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. Equities are mostly lower. European benchmark 10-year yields have edged up, though the US 10-year yield is struggling to hold above 2.75%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Reinvigorated

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December.

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Switzerland signs more post-Brexit deals with UK

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Swiss President and Finance Minister Ueli Maurer has signed two agreements with the UK as part of the government’s strategy to maintain smooth ties after Brexit. The agreements on road transport and non-life insurance were signed with UK Chancellor Philip Hammond at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Friday, said the finance ministry.

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The “Working Rich” Are Not Like You and Me-or the Oligarchs

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Progressive Paying
Rising income inequality may be a reflection of the changing nature of work. F. Scott Fitzgerald's story The Rich Boy included this famous line: "Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me." According to a recent paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER),Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century (abstract only), the "working rich" are different from you and me, and from the Oligarchs above them...

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Swiss small businesses sound optimistic note for exports

2019-01-27

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2019-01-27

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Switzerland are optimistic about export business at the start of 2019, a new survey has found, with over half expecting foreign sales to grow during the year. “The export climate will remain favourable for Swiss SMEs in 2019,” wrote the authors of a Switzerland Global Enterprise and Credit Suisse survey published on Thursday.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – January 2019

2019-01-27

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2019-01-27

Economic Growth & Investment
A Return To Normalcy. In the first two years after a newly elected President takes office he enacts a major tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthy and significantly raises tariffs on imports. His foreign policy is erratic but generally pulls the country back from foreign commitments. He also works to reduce immigration and roll back regulations enacted by his predecessor.

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GBPCHF rates hit near 3-month highs

2019-01-26

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2019-01-26

The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has soared dramatically following a series of revelations in the currency markets and global economy. A big factor is of course Sterling strength, which has arisen on the back of increased feelings that the UK will avoid a no-deal Brexit. This could manifest next week in a Parliamentary vote on whether or not to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

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Half of Swiss happy with their finances

2019-01-26

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2019-01-26

A recent survey suggests that half of Swiss residents are satisfied with their financial situation. 6% said they have trouble making ends meet. In addition, 28% expect their finances to improve in 2019. Fewer women (25%) are optimistic than men (33%). 18% expect their finances to worsen and 54% expect no change.

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The Ruling Elites Love How Easily We’re Distracted and Turned Against Each Other

2019-01-26

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2019-01-26

US Political Polarization
No wonder the ruling elites love how easily we're distracted and divided against ourselves: it's so easy to dominate a distracted, divided, blinded-by-propaganda and negative emotions populace. Let's say you're one of the ruling elites operating the nation for the benefit of the oligarchy.

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Folgt nun der umgekehrte Frankenschock?

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

An ihrer ersten Sitzung im neuen Jahr hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ihren Kurs bestätigt. Das Wertschriftenkaufprogramm ist definitiv beendet. Fortan kauft sie netto keine zusätzlichen Anleihen mehr zu. Sondern sie ersetzt nur noch die bestehenden Papiere, die sie in ihrem Portefeuille hält.

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Update on euro area economic activity

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

Euro Area Real GDP Growth and GDP Estimate Based on PMI 2001-2019
The balance of risks to growth in the region is still tilted to the downside.The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached. A rebound was already expected in Q4 2018, but at the start of this year there are still few signs of recovery. Flash composite PMI numbers for the region declined by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January, the weakest level since July 2013.

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Swiss organic farm output doubles

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

Organic-Switzerland
Between 1999 and 2017 the amount of organic food produced on Swiss farms more than doubled. In 1999, 5.3% of Switzerland’s farm output was organic. By 2017 this figure had risen to 11.7%. In 1999, Swiss farms produced CHF 562 million worth of organic food. In 2017, they produced CHF 1.2 billion.

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FX Daily, January 25: Euro Pares Yesterday’s Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

Overview:  The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Sterling pushed above $1.31, an 11-week high on news that the DUP would support Prime Minister's Plan B that calls for limits on the backstop with Ireland, something that the EC and Ireland have indicated are not on the table.

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Summary of Fox Biz Talk

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

I had a brief talk on the set with of Fox Business with Varney & Co today, but there is no video available. We began by talking about stocks. For several weeks, I have been suggesting to viewers that the S&P 500 could recover to 2700. Last Friday, the S&P 500 gapped higher and reached 2675. I did not like the gap and thought it would be quickly filled.

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China’s Eurodollar Story Reaches Its Final Chapters

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

PBOC Balance Sheet, Nov 2007 - 2018
Imagine yourself as a rural Chinese farmer. Even the term “farmer” makes it sound better than it really is. This is a life out of the 19th century, subsistence at best the daily struggle just to survive. Flourishing is a dream.

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Blockchain start-up growth bucks Swiss trend

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

The number of blockchain companies in Switzerland grew 20% to reach 750 in the last three months of 2018. But the market capitalisation of such firms, measured by the dollar exchange rate of tokens in circulation, more than halved as crypto-assets nose-dived in value.

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FX Daily, January 24: Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB’s Challenge

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Overview:  The eurozone's preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013.  It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday's gains.  The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. 

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Switzerland scores well on youth job market conditions but suffers from skills mismatch

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Young-worker-Switzerland
A recent report places Switzerland second in a ranking of 33 european countries on conditions in the youth labour market in 2016 – youth are those between 15 and 24. Switzerland’s overall score of 5.67 out of 7.00 is close to Denmark’s 5.72. Switzerland’s highest scores are for employment rate (6.01) and working conditions (5.77), with education (5.36) and smoothness of transition to work (5.52) coming in lower.

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Gentrified Urban America Will Be Hit Hard by the Recession

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Retail Square Footage per Capita
Combine sky-high commercial rents in homogenized, gentrified urban areas and sharp declines in the incomes of the limited populace who can afford gentrified urban areas and what do you get? A number of macro dynamics have set up gentrified urban America for a big fall in the coming recession.

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FX Daily, January 23: Markets Walk Tightrope after Yesterday’s US Equity Drop

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Overview:  Global equities have fared better than the 1.4% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday may have implied. Asian markets were mixed, with China, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand advancing. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe is a little changed after falling for the past two sessions. 

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