Tag Archive: newsletter

Clarida Picks Up Some Data

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

China Exports, 2006-2019
I should know better than to make declarative all-or-none statements like this. I said there isn’t any data which comports with the idea of a global turnaround, this shakeup in sentiment which since early September has gone right from one extreme to the other. Recession fears predominated in summer only to be (rather easily) replaced by near euphoria (again).

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FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push into risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance today, with only Australian equities among the large regional markets able to sustain upticks. 

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EUR/CHF: Franc at 33-month high five years after SNB removed the cap

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Technical levels
EUR/CHF is trading at 33-month lows near 1.0759. The US added Switzerland to its current manipulators' list. The SNB removed the cap on the euro on Jan. 15, 2015. Five years after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the financial markets by abandoning the euro cap, the Swiss Franc is trading at 33-month highs against the single currency. 

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US places Switzerland on trade ‘watch list’

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

The US Treasury Department has put Switzerland back on a biannual list of countries that are under observation because of large trade surpluses with the United States. Switzerland was previously included on the Monitoring List between October 2016 and October 2018, “having a material current account surplus and engaged in persistent, one-sided intervention in the foreign exchange market”.

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Signatures collected for vote on tax deduction for parents

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Opponents of a proposal to increase tax deductions for parents have succeeded in collecting enough signatures to force a referendum on the subject. On Tuesday the leftwing Social Democratic Party submitted the necessary signatures required to trigger a referendum. The party is opposed to a “tax bonus for rich parents” and collected 60,000 signatures in two-and-a-half months to force a nationwide vote on the reform, approved by...

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The Many Ways Governments Create Monopolies

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

[From Power and Market, Chapter 3.] Instead of making the product prohibition absolute, the government may prohibit production and sale except by a certain firm or firms. These firms are then specially privileged by the government to engage in a line of production, and therefore this type of prohibition is a grant of special privilege. If the grant is to one person or firm, it is a monopoly grant; if to several persons or firms, it is a...

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Household Survey: Civilian Employment, 2017-2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized...

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

FX Report
The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners.

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Will a Credit Crisis Threaten Boris’s 2020 Brexit Plans?

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Boris and the Conservatives won the General Election with a very good majority. In truth, opposition parties stood little chance of success against the Tory strategists, who controlled the narrative despite a hostile media. At the centre of their slick operation was Dominic Cummings, who masterminded the Brexit leave vote, winning the referendum against all the betting in 2016.

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Swiss researchers identify means to reduce risk of man-made earthquakes

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Identifying the kind of fault or tectonic forces in an underground reservoir can reduce the risk of tremors caused by geothermal energy or carbon storage. The injection of cold pressurised water into hot impermeable rocks several kilometres underground is how underground reservoirs are created for geothermal energy.

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US Treasury adds Swiss Franc back to its currency watch list – Bloomberg

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

The US Treasury on Monday added Swiss Franc (CHF) back to its currency watch list and urged Switzerland to adjust its macroeconomic policies to more forcefully support domestic economic activity, according to Bloomberg. 

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Just a Friendly Heads-Up, Bulls: The Fed Just Slashed its Balance Sheet

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Assets: Total Assets, 2019-2020
Perhaps even PhD economists notice that manic-mania bubbles always burst--always. Just a friendly heads-up to all the Bulls bowing and murmuring prayers to the Golden Idol of the Federal Reserve: the Fed just slashed its balance sheet--yes, reduced its assets. After panic-printing $410 billion in a few months, a $24 billion decline isn't much, but it does suggest the Fed might finally be worrying about the reckless, insane bubble it inflated:

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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Swiss scientists make 18-carat ‘plastic gold’

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Five years ago researchers at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich developed the lightest gold in the world, which could float on a cappuccino. But there wasn’t much they could do with it. Now they have created 18-carat light gold which can be used for watches, jewellery and electronics.

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Economist: Your Freedom Is Dangerous Because You Might Set a Bad Example

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Last week I discussed a new argument against paternalism in the important book of Mario Rizzo and Glen Whitman, Escaping Paternalism. Today I’d like to give the other side a chance. Robert H. Frank is an economist at Cornell University, well-regarded for his work on the emotions and usually anxious to stress the flaws of the free market. In his just-published Under the Influence, he offers, among many other things, a defense of high taxes on...

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FX Daily, January 13: Dismal Data Undercuts Sterling and Boosts Chances of a Rate Cut

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Overview: There are two big stories today. The first is the large scale protests in Iran after the government admits to accidentally shooting down the commercial airliner amid the fog of war. The market impact seems minimal but fueling speculation that this, coupled with the economic hardship related to the US embargo, could topple the regime. Second, the UK reported that the economy unexpectedly contracted in November.

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House View, January 2020

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Our asset allocation is dominated by a wish to stay diversified in a fragile environment. Continued ‘noise’ around trade is likely to leave markets alternating between disappointment and hope. With this in mind, we have a neutral stance on government bonds and developed-market equities alike, although we still see select opportunities in equities and appreciate the protective function of safe-haven bonds.

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Immobilienfinanzierung – Was mit dem Saron auf Schweizer Hypothekarkunden zukommt

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Nationalbank-Direktorin Andréa Maechler schimpfte letzten Monat ein bisschen mit den Banken: Die Finanzinstitute sollten bei der Vergabe ihrer Geldmarkthypotheken zügig damit anfangen, vom Referenzzinssatz Libor abzukehren. Denn der Libor – voll ausgeschrieben "London Interbank Offered Rate" – wird definitiv nur noch bis Ende 2021 erstellt.

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FX Weekly Preview: Back to Macro?

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

The US-China trade conflict and then US-Iran confrontation distracted investors from the macroeconomic drivers of the capital markets. It is not that there is really much closure with the exogenous issues, but they are in a less challenging place, at least on the surface. 

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