Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, September 04: Dollar Gains Broadly

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

The US dollar is rising against all the major and emerging market currencies today. The signals from the White House suggest strong pressure will be exerted on Canada to sign on to NAFTA 2.0 or risk losing part of its auto sector, which of course is primarily the production of US brands. At the same time, the US is in no mood to negotiate with Europe or China.

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Emerging Market Week Ahead Preview

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

EM FX ended last week on a firm note, but weakness resumed Monday. Higher than expected Turkish inflation hurt the lira, which in turn dragged down BRL, ARS, ZAR, and RUB. We expect EM to remain under pressure this week when the US returns from holiday Tuesday.

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Illicit Arbitrage Cut by Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Report 3 Sep 2018

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

Gold and Silver Price
This week, we are back to our ongoing series on capital destruction. Let’s consider the simple transaction of issuing a bond. Party X sells a bond to Party Y. We will first offer something entirely uncontroversial. If the interest rate rises after Y buys the bond, then Y takes a loss. Or if the interest rate falls, then Y makes a capital gain. This is simply saying that the bond price moves inverse to the interest rate.

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Die SNB-Zeitbombe tickt, die NZZ nickt

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

Bildschirmfoto
„Die Devisenreserve der SNB sind keine Zeitbombe, die uns einmal um die Ohren fliegt, sondern eine Art Volksvermögen“. Das behauptet die SNB-freundliche NZZ am Sonntag. Das Blatt bedient ein SNB-Klischee nach dem anderen und hat den Ernst der Lage unserer Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) offensichtlich nicht begriffen.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2018: +0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, July 2018
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.3% in nominal terms in July 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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Minister says state-guaranteed cantonal banks complicate EU talks

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

Swiss finance minister Ueli Maurer says state-guaranteed cantonal banks are an obstacle in ongoing negotiations with the European Union. “This point still needs to be clarified before a framework agreement can be accepted,” the minister is quoted as saying in an interview published on Saturday.

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FX Weekly Preview: Trade Trumps US Jobs and Rising Stress in Spain and Italy is More Important than the PMI

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

The first week of a new month features the US jobs data.  It is the most important economic report of a new month.  It sets the broad tone for much of the economic data over the next several weeks,  including consumption, industrial production, and construction spending. However, there are two reasons why it may not pack the punch it has in the past. 

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

China stepped up efforts to attract more foreign inflows to the onshore bond market. Russia has softened its unpopular pension reform proposal. The African National Congress withdrew an existing land expropriation bill. Moody’s downgraded twenty Turkish financial institutions. Turkey central bank Deputy Governor Erkan Kilimci has reportedly resigned.

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As Emerging Market Currencies Collapse, Gold is being Mobilized

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

EM-cartoon
In recent weeks, global financial markets have been increasingly spooked by an intensifying crisis in emerging market currencies including those of Turkey and Argentina. Add to this the ongoing currency crisis in Venezuela and the currency problems of Iran.

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Swiss cantons forced to fish for multinationals with non-tax lures

2018-09-02

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2018-09-02

Proposed changes to Switzerland’s tax rules could have a dramatic effect on which cantons remain attractive locations for multinational companies in future. As a result, factors such as the cost of premises or concentration of high tech facilities, will play a greater role, according to UBS bank.

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SkyWork lands its last ever plane in Bern Airport

2018-09-02

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2018-09-02

The last SkyWork flight landed in Bern Airport on Wednesday night, as ongoing financial difficulties forced the company to declare itself bankrupt. Some 11,000 passengers are affected. The company, founded in 1983, cited the failure of negotiations with a potential partner to pull the company from recurring funding shortfalls that intensified in October last year.

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‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

2018-09-02

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2018-09-02

Canada BoC ON Target, August 2018
The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are.

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The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

The winding down of the North's summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader.

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Why Is Productivity Dead in the Water?

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2016
As the accompanying chart shows, productivity in the U.S. has been declining since the early 2000s. This trend mystifies economists, as the tremendous investments in software, robotics, networks and mobile computing would be expected to boost productivity, as these tools enable every individual who knows how to use them to produce more value.

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Ongoing roadblocks stifle growth of Swiss banks

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

Swiss banks are withstanding the pressure of ongoing headwinds, but real progress continues to be stalled by political and economic roadblocks, the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) said on Thursday. Releasing its annual Banking Barometer, which measures the performance of the sector in 2017, the SBA found that aggregate profits (profits minus losses) across Switzerland’s 253 banks rose by nearly a quarter to CHF9.8 billion ($10.1 billion).

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Italian 2019 draft budget: a bumpy road ahead

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Italian Fiscal Timeline
Tensions between Rome and Brussels could lead to significant market volatility before an agreement is found. September will be a key month for gauging the Italian government’s budgetary plans for 2019. The government has communicated neither a precise timeline for implementing the measures announced in its ‘contract for government’ nor a precise cost analysis for these measures.

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Costs of owning a home in Switzerland set to rise for some

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Swiss-house
Currently, home owners in Switzerland must pay tax on fictional rent, calculated based on a home’s size and location. At the same time home owners get to deduct mortgage interest and home maintenance costs from their taxable income.

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FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations for continued hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unambiguous signals that trade tensions will increase in the coming weeks dampens the risk appetite.

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Why Am I Fighting for the Gold Standard?

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Monetary Metals
Life is good. They could not have imagined what we have now, back in the dark ages. So I have never understood why people prep for a return to the dark ages. The only thing I can think of is that they don’t really picture what life is like. 14 hours a day of back-breaking labor to eke out a subsistence living. Subject to the risks of rain, sun, and insects.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Falling

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years.

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