Tag Archive: newsletter
FX Daily, May 09: De-Risking as US-China Trade Talks Resume
The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff hike, global equities are being smashed. Korea's Kospi was off 3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was shed 2.4%. Shanghai lost 1.5%.
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New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves
Washington, DC (May 8, 2019) – U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves,...
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Swiss teachers stretched thin with unpaid overtime work
Swiss teachers are still working too much unpaid overtime, particularly in German-speaking Switzerland, according to a new survey by two major teachers’ associations. "Swiss teachers have the highest number of working hours of all OECD countries and work unpaid overtime for hundreds of millions of francs," denounced Beat Zemp, president of the Swiss Teachers’ Association (LCH).
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What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories
It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of crisis and economic weakness...
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Switzerland Unemployment in April 2019: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.4percent
Registered Unemployment in April 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of April 2019, 107,298 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 5,043 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.5% in March 2019 to 2.4% in the month under review.
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FX Daily, May 08: Markets Trying to Stabilize
Overview: It is taking investors a bit more than two sessions to find its footing after being the unexpected end of the tariff truce between the US and China struck last December. Asia Pacific equities tumbled after the S&P 500 shed nearly 1.7% yesterday, the third largest decline in 2019, but Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near yesterday's lows.
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Brexit to drive pound to Swiss franc exchange rates
Yesterday the PM’s deputy David Liddington confirmed that the UK will be taking part in European elections, therefore in my view the cross-party talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are over. If the Prime Minister thought that they would be able to come to an agreement in the upcoming days Mr Liddington would not have made the announcement yesterday.
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Gun law and corporate tax reforms set to be approved
Opponents of restrictions on gun ownership in Switzerland have not been able to win substantial additional support over the past months, according to an opinion poll ahead of a nationwide vote on May 19. The No camp lags more than 30 percentage points behind the supporters, a survey published by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday as found.
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A spanner in the works
While Trump’s weekend tweets have created fresh uncertainties around US trade talks with China, some perspective is needed.At the weekend, US President Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports as he believes that US-China trade negotiations are going “too slowly”. Importantly, Trump’s threats do not mean bilateral talks are breaking down. Indeed, the Chinese government confirmed today that its trade delegation would still go...
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FX Daily, May 07: Markets Steady as China Pushes Forward
Overview: News that the US tariff escalation did not scupper trade talks with China has helped the global capital markets stabilize today. China's Vice Premier Liu He is still leading a delegation to the US. Most Asian equities recouped part of yesterday's losses, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and Singapore. Japanese and Korean markets were closed on Monday and bore some selling pressure today.
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What Would It Take to Spark a Rural/Small-Town Revival?
There are many historical models in which the spending/investing of wealthy families drives the expansion of local economies. The increase in farm debt while farm income declines is putting unbearable financial pressure on American farmers, who must be differentiated from giant agri-business corporations. This is placing immense pressure on farmers, pressure which manifests in rising suicide rates.
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FX Daily, May 06: Trump’s Tariff Tweets Help Investors Discover Volatility
Reports that a US-China deal could be struck by May 10 before the weekend left investors ill-prepared for the presidential tweets yesterday that announced that the US was ending the tariff truce. Trump indicated that the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods would be lifted to 25% at the end of the week and that the remaining $325 bln of Chinese goods that have not been subject to an extra levy, will be slapped with a 25% tariff soon.
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Seizures of illegally imported medicines triple in Switzerland
The Federal Customs Administration seized 3,203 shipments of illegally imported medicines in 2018 – triple the amount of the previous year. Erectile stimulants remain at the top of the list of illegally imported substances, the Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products (Swissmedic) said on Thursday.
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Good Riddance to a “Nothing-Burger” Trade Deal
China has expanded its domestic debt to fund its growth, much of which qualifies as malinvestment, creating financial vulnerabilities its government is anxious to mask. As I noted in Trade Deal Follies: The U.S. Has Embraced the World's Worst Negotiating Tactics (April 8, 2019), the trade deal was a Nothing-Burger for the U.S. Without any consequences for violating trade deals, China violates all trade deals, starting with the WTO.
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Geneva blocks the erection of 5G mobile antennas
Last week, Antonio Hodgers, the head of Geneva’s executive, announced a ban on the erection of further 5G mobile antennas in the canton, according to an interview on RTS. Motivated by uncertainty on the potential health effects of the new technology, the temporary freeze is the most the cantonal government can do to stop the rollout of the technology.
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM
03.05.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in April 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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Income Inequality and the Decline of the Middle Class in Two Charts
These two charts of average incomes of U.S. households by quintile (bottom 20%, middle 60% (20%+20%+20%) and top 20%) have both good news and bad news. (Charts are from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office -- CBO).
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UBS Tells Managers They Can Hire 1 Employee For Every 5 Who Leave
Like the other lagging European investment banks (Deutsche and SocGen immediately spring to mind), UBS is resorting to the last resort of the embattled megabank CEO when shareholders are demanding higher profits 'or else'. After a decade where UBS cut thousands of jobs in its investment bank unit, Sergio Ermotti is turning to one of the few business lines where fat can feasibly be cut: UBS's once legendary asset-management business.
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