Tag Archive: newsletter

Emerging Markets: FX Model for Q3 2019

2019-08-28

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2019-08-28

Emerging Markets FX Q3 2019
The broad-based dollar rally remains intact despite the market’s overly dovish take on the Fed. We still believe markets are vastly overestimating the Fed’s capacity to ease in 2019 and 2020. What’s clear is that the liquidity story is not enough to sustain EM. MSCI EM FX is on track to test the September 2018 low near 1575 and then the April 2017 low near 1568.

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Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

2019-08-28

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2019-08-28

US Durable Goods Chicago Fed NAI, Jan 2006 - 2019
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of change.

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Bitcoin-Friendly Banks

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

Over its 10 years of existence, Bitcoin adoption has been just like its price—up and down. At this point in time, it’s safe to say that the adoption of our favourite cryptocurrency has never been higher. Since adoption is so high, it has never been easier to buy bitcoin (with hundreds of payment methods available on peer-to-peer marketplaces).

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FX Daily, August 27: Realism Fights Back After Hope Dominated Yesterday

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward. Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday's drop, led by Chinese markets. Hong Kong was the main exception.

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Dollar Firm as Markets Calm

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

Dollar Firm as Markets Calm
Market sentiment has improved after President Trump said China has asked to restart trade talks. PBOC fixed the yuan basically flat and firmer than what models suggested. The G-7 summit wraps up today with little to show for it. We believe the Chicago Fed National Activity Index remains the best indicator to gauge US recession risks. Germany July IFO business climate came in weaker than expected

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Switzerland’s First Crypto Banks Receive Licences

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

The Swiss financial regulator has awarded banking and securities dealer licences to two new “crypto banks”. SEBA and Sygnum have been cleared to operate in the new world of tokenised digital securities, a major milestone for the fledging industry.

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Directive 10-289, Report 25 Aug

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Gold and Silver Prices
Everyone must ask himself the question. Do you want the world to move to an honest money system, or do you just want gold to go up (we italicize discussion of apparent moves in gold, because it’s the dollar that’s moving down—not gold going up—but we sometimes frame it in mainstream terms).

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FX Daily, August 26: Trump’s “Call from China” helps Markets Recover

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Overview:  The anticipated growth implications of the heightened tensions between the world's two largest economies is dominating activity at the start of the new week. These considerations that drove the 2.6% drop in the S&P 500 before the weekend is carrying over into today's activity.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is not about the Week Ahead

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

It's the last week of August. Several economic reports will be released in the coming days. They include the US deflator of consumer expenditures that the Federal Reserve targets, China's PMI, and the eurozone's preliminary August CPI. It is not that the data do not matter, but investors realize the die is cast.

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Media questions EFTA deal timing

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

“Playing with fire,” is the verdict of the Swiss press, in reaction to the free trade deal largely agreed between EFTA countries – among them Switzerland – and the Mercosur bloc, that includes Brazil. Questions have been raised over the timing of the agreement.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Economic Growth & Investment
The yield curve’s inverted! The yield curve’s inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That’s the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good.

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USD/CHF: Value of CHF calls hits highest since March 2018

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

CHF1MMR Q4 2017 - 2019
Risk reversals on Swiss Franc (CHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, dropped to the lowest level in 17-months, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rise in the Swiss currency. The USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals fell to -1.41 – a level last seen in March 2018.

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The Benefits of a Profoundly Shattering Recession

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
Does anyone really think The Everything Bubble can just keep inflating forever? What do I mean by a profoundly shattering recession? I mean, a systemic, crushing recession that can't be reversed with central bank magic, a recession that only deepens with time. The last real recession was roughly two generations ago in 1981; younger generations have no experience of a profound recession, and perhaps older folks have forgotten the shock, angst and...

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Swiss unemployment down in second quarter of 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

In the second quarter of 2019, the percentage of Switzerland’s population working rose by 1.1% and the percentage unemployed fell to 4.2%, based on the higher International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) measure. In the second quarter of 2019, 5.1 million people were working in Switzerland, 60% of the population. The number working rose 1.1% compared to the previous year, particularly among women (+2.0%).

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q3 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe.

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Swiss post rolls out more secure version of e-voting platform

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

The publicly-owned company Swiss Post, which had abandoned its electronic voting system in July over security concerns, has developed a new version. "We have already proposed a solution" to cantons, said general manager Roberto Cirillo in an interview published by the La Liberté newspaper on Friday.

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Germany’s Superstimulus; Or, The Familiar (Dollar) Disorder of Bumbling Failure

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

European Economy, 2004-2019
The Economics textbook says that when faced with a downturn, the central bank turns to easing and the central government starts borrowing and spending. This combined “stimulus” approach will fill in the troughs without shaving off the peaks; at least according to neo-Keynesian doctrine. The point is to raise what these Economists call aggregate demand.

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Swiss health insurers to send patients to pharmacy first

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

Swiss healthcare is typically ranked the world’s second most expensive, as a percentage of GDP, after the US. In Switzerland, compulsory health insurance premiums cover 37% of healthcare costs. Much of the rest is covered by tax payers and non-reimbursable out-of-pocket payments by individuals.

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G7 to Deliver a Nothing Burger

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

A Bloomberg article about the weekend G7 meeting says, "multilateralism is dead."  An op-ed in the Financial Times suggests that the most important political alliance may be "rejuvenated" at the G7 meeting.  The truth is likely found somewhere in between. 

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FX Daily, August 23: Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell

2019-08-23

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2019-08-23

Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend.  Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide.  European bourses are edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is poised to end its three-week air pocket.

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