Tag Archive: newsletter

The Great Unraveling Begins: Distraction, Lies, Infighting, Betrayal

2019-05-11

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2019-05-11

Income Inequality and Political Polarization, 1947 - 2009
There are two basic pathways to systemic collapse: external shocks or internal decay. The two are not mutually exclusive, of course; it can be argued that the most common path is internal decay weakens the empire/state and an external shock pushes the rotted structure off the cliff.

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French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

French - Real GDP Growth, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
The French government’s respond to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year.Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing.

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FX Daily, May 10: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

Overview:  Contrary to hopes and expectations, the US made good on the presidential tweet and raised the tariff on around $200 bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.  Trump indicated that the process that will levy a 25% tariff on the remaining Chinese imports has begun. Also contrary to expectations, Chinese officials did not detail their response, though it is expected to be forthcoming.

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Geneva has most expensive family flats to rent

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

Family apartments in Geneva are the most expensive to rent, while those in St Gallen in the east of the country are the cheapest, according to a survey of the ten biggest Swiss cities. The median monthly rent for a 4.5-room apartment (100-110 square metres) in St Gallen costs CHF2,004 ($1,971), according to a survey published on Thursday by the price comparison website Comparis.

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China’s Export Story Is Everyone’s Economic Base Case

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

China Exports, 1998-2018
The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive with a more aggressive ECB emerging.

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FX Daily, May 09: De-Risking as US-China Trade Talks Resume

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff hike, global equities are being smashed. Korea's Kospi was off 3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was shed 2.4%. Shanghai lost 1.5%.

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New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Washington, DC (May 8, 2019) – U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration. The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves,...

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Swiss teachers stretched thin with unpaid overtime work

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Swiss teachers are still working too much unpaid overtime, particularly in German-speaking Switzerland, according to a new survey by two major teachers’ associations. "Swiss teachers have the highest number of working hours of all OECD countries and work unpaid overtime for hundreds of millions of francs," denounced Beat Zemp, president of the Swiss Teachers’ Association (LCH).

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What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

Europe Real GDP, 2007-2013
It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of crisis and economic weakness...

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Switzerland Unemployment in April 2019: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.4percent

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., April 2019
Registered Unemployment in April 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of April 2019, 107,298 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 5,043 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.5% in March 2019 to 2.4% in the month under review.

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FX Daily, May 08: Markets Trying to Stabilize

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Overview:  It is taking investors a bit more than two sessions to find its footing after being the unexpected end of the tariff truce between the US and China struck last December. Asia Pacific equities tumbled after the S&P 500 shed nearly 1.7% yesterday, the third largest decline in 2019, but Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near yesterday's lows.

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Brexit to drive pound to Swiss franc exchange rates

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Yesterday the PM’s deputy David Liddington confirmed that the UK will be taking part in European elections, therefore in my view the cross-party talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are over. If the Prime Minister thought that they would be able to come to an agreement in the upcoming days Mr Liddington would not have made the announcement yesterday.

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Gun law and corporate tax reforms set to be approved

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Opponents of restrictions on gun ownership in Switzerland have not been able to win substantial additional support over the past months, according to an opinion poll ahead of a nationwide vote on May 19. The No camp lags more than 30 percentage points behind the supporters, a survey published by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday as found.

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A spanner in the works

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

MSCI China vs. Developed Market Equities - Relative Price Change, 2017-2019
While Trump’s weekend tweets have created fresh uncertainties around US trade talks with China, some perspective is needed.At the weekend, US President Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports as he believes that US-China trade negotiations are going “too slowly”. Importantly, Trump’s threats do not mean bilateral talks are breaking down. Indeed, the Chinese government confirmed today that its trade delegation would still go...

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FX Daily, May 07: Markets Steady as China Pushes Forward

2019-05-07

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2019-05-07

Overview: News that the US tariff escalation did not scupper trade talks with China has helped the global capital markets stabilize today.  China's Vice Premier Liu He is still leading a delegation to the US.  Most Asian equities recouped part of yesterday's losses, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and Singapore.  Japanese and Korean markets were closed on Monday and bore some selling pressure today.

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What Would It Take to Spark a Rural/Small-Town Revival?

2019-05-07

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2019-05-07

Net farm Income, USDA 1970- 2010
There are many historical models in which the spending/investing of wealthy families drives the expansion of local economies. The increase in farm debt while farm income declines is putting unbearable financial pressure on American farmers, who must be differentiated from giant agri-business corporations. This is placing immense pressure on farmers, pressure which manifests in rising suicide rates.

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Nonmonetary Cause of Lower Prices, Report 5 May

2019-05-07

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2019-05-07

Gold and Silver Price
Over the past several weeks, we have debunked the idea that purchasing power—i.e. what a dollar can buy—is intrinsic to the currency itself. We have discussed a large non-monetary force that drives up prices. Governments at every level force producers to add useless ingredients, via regulation, taxation, labor law, environmentalism, etc.

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FX Daily, May 06: Trump’s Tariff Tweets Help Investors Discover Volatility

2019-05-06

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2019-05-06

Reports that a US-China deal could be struck by May 10 before the weekend left investors ill-prepared for the presidential tweets yesterday that announced that the US was ending the tariff truce. Trump indicated that the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods would be lifted to 25% at the end of the week and that the remaining $325 bln of Chinese goods that have not been subject to an extra levy, will be slapped with a 25% tariff soon.

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Seizures of illegally imported medicines triple in Switzerland

2019-05-06

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2019-05-06

The Federal Customs Administration seized 3,203 shipments of illegally imported medicines in 2018 – triple the amount of the previous year. Erectile stimulants remain at the top of the list of illegally imported substances, the Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products (Swissmedic) said on Thursday.

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Money Metals Exchange Lease #1 (silver)

2019-05-06

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2019-05-06

Silver Offers for Money Metals Exchange
Monetary Metals leased silver to Money Metals Exchange, to support the growth of its gold and silver bullion  business. The metal is held in the form of inventory in its vault. For more information see Monetary Metals’ press release.

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