Tag Archive: newsletter

The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

U.S. Gasoline Stocks, 2012-2019
If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its estimates for the third time in four months.

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FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

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Nationalbank unter Interventionsdruck

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

Der Schweizer Franken wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker gegenüber dem Euro. (Bild: Pixeljoy/Shutterstock.com)Die Zinssenkunkung der US-Notenbank Fed und die von der EZB angekündigten Massnahmen zur Lockerung der Geldpolitik sowie die jüngsten Ereignisse im Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China haben den Druck auf den Franken erhöht. Die Schweizer Währung wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback jumps and settles above 0.9726 as tariffs gets delayed

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

USD/CHF daily chart, August 14
USD/CHF is trading off 2-month lows below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). US equity markets are rising sharply as US tariffs are to be delayed to December 15. The news was perceived as risk-on, sending safe-haven CHF, JPY and gold down.

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Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019
What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else.

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Developed market equities update: a fairly reassuring reporting season

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

August’s Equity Sell-off’s Magnitude Looks Like May’s, but was Much More Rapid
There is an ongoing tug-of-war between trade tensions and fundamentals Due to renewed trade tensions, the S&P 500 corrected by 6.0% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8% from the late July peak to the 5 August low. Because the pullback was clustered around just a few days, its intensity was reminiscent of the worst market days of past major crises.

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Swiss financial sector shines in international survey 

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Switzerland’s financial centre has a positive reputation abroad, despite a string of scandals in 2018, according to a 19-nation survey conducted by Presence Suisse. The reputation and quality of Swiss banks were rated as “good” to “very good” by most respondents in the international poll of 12,767 people. The ethics and responsibility of the Swiss banking sector are also well regarded.

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FX Daily, August 13: Investors Remain on Edge

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Overview:  The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation.  Global equities remain under pressure.  Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain. 

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback under pressure below 0.9700 as sellers challenge June lows

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

USD/CHF daily chart, August 13
CHF is up as Wall Street indices start the week in the red. The level to beat for bears are at the 0.9675 and 0.9660 levels.

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The Economic Singularity, Report 11 Aug

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Gold and Silver Price
We have recently written several essays about the fallacious concept of Gross Domestic Product. Among GDP’s several fatal flaws, it goes up when capital is converted to consumer goods, when seed corn is served at the feast. So we proposed—and originally dismissed—the idea of a national balance sheet.

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FX Daily, August 12: Yen Remains Bid, While Macri’s Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Overview: China again tried to temper the downside pressure on the yuan, and this appears to be helping the risk-taking attitude. Many centers in Asia were closed today, including Japan and India, though most of the other equity markets advanced modestly, including China, Korea, and Australia. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened firmer but is staddling little changed levels unable to stain any upside momentum.

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Nationalbank dürfte erneut interveniert haben

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Darauf deuten die Sichtguthaben bei SNB hin, die als Indiz für solche Interventionen gelten und in der vergangenen Woche deutlich gestiegen sind. Die Einlagen von Bund und Banken lagen am 9. August bei 585,5 Milliarden Franken, wie die SNB am Montag mitteilte. Das ist ein Anstieg von rund 2,8 Milliarden gegenüber der Vorwoche.

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Update on gold – bad news is good news

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Gold Price vs US 10-year Real Rates, 2012-2019
Increased trade tensions have boosted the gold price to above USD 1,500.The increased trade tensions following Trump’s 1 August tweet threatening additional tariffs on Chinese goods has boosted the gold price above USD 1,500 per troy ounce.The recent developments are supportive of gold investment demand because of a lower opportunity cost associated with holding gold and greater demand for safe haven assets.

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The Internal War in the Deep State Claims Its High Profile Casualty: Jeffrey Epstein

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The "traditionalist" Neocons are going to have to decide to fish or cut bait. I've been writing about the fracturing Deep State for the past five years: The conflict has now reached the hot-war stage where bodies are turning up, explained away by the usual laughable covers: "suicide," "accident" and "heart attack." That Jeffrey Epstein's death in a secure cell is being labeled "suicide" tells us quite a lot about the desperation of the faction...

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Survey shows growing political acceptance for a fuel tax

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Analysis of survey questions filled out by Swiss politicians in 2015 and 2019 shows a marked turnaround in attitudes towards the introduction of a carbon tax on fuel. The Smartvote online platform asks politicians various attitudinal questions in an effort to help voters make up their minds in the lead up to national elections.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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The Myth of CNY DOWN = STIMULUS Won’t Die

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

China Exports, 2006-2019
On the one hand, it’s a small silver lining in how many even in the mainstream are beginning to realize that there really is something wrong. Then again, they are using “trade wars” to make sense of how that could be. For the one, at least they’ve stopped saying China’s economy is strong and always looks resilient no matter what data comes out.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback stable near 0.9755 as US stocks recover

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

USD/CHF daily chart
The demand for the Swiss franc decreases as Wall Street indices are gaining strength. The level to beat for bulls are at 0.9790 and 0.9815 level.

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The US labels China a currency manipulator

2019-08-10

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2019-08-10

USD/CNY Spot Rate, 2000-2019
The near-term impact will likely be limited but this is a clear negative for trade negotiations.Shortly after the renminbi’s sharp depreciation on Monday, the US Treasury Department labelled China a currency manipulator. This is the first time in 25 years that the US government has designated a country as a currency manipulator.According to the US Treasury Department, the decision was triggered by the perceived lack of action by the PBoC to resist...

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Novartis rejects suspected data manipulation in US

2019-08-09

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2019-08-09

Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis has dismissed criticism that it allegedly withheld information about animal testing data inaccuracies to United States authorities for a human gene therapy. Novartis said its subsidiary in California began investigating the alleged data manipulation for its gene therapy Zolgensma as soon as it learned about it.

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