Tag Archive: New Zealand

FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

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FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

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Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). As a currency, it gives rise to a tension between its use as a store of value and as medium of exchange.

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Talking Global Macro Investing With A 25-Year Market Veteran

If you were rich, successful, and intelligent - which often, not always, go hand in hand together - where would you live?The last time I was in the Rockies, I remember thinking to myself. You know what, if it weren't for the fact it's so damn far from the beach I could actually live here. It's really quite lovely.

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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our politics.

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Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

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Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales

After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece.

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Money, Markets, & Mayhem – What To Expect In The Year Ahead

If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017's 'known unknowns' suggest a year of more mayhem awaits... Here's a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg's quick-takes on each).

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Negative and the War On Cash, Part 2: “Closing The Escape Routes”

History teaches us that central authorities dislike escape routes, at least for the majority, and are therefore prone to closing them, so that control of a limited money supply can remain in the hands of the very few. In the 1930s, gold was the escape route, so gold was confiscated. As Alan Greenspan wrote in 1966:

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FX Daily, August 11: Sterling Struggles to Find a Bid, While RBNZ Can’t Knock Kiwi Down

Once again, EUR/CHF reverses in the middle of the week. A part from technical reasons, the weak French CPI (+0.4% YoY) and Italian CPI (-0.2% YoY) exercised downwards pressure on the euro. The US dollar has found steadier footing today after trading heavily yesterday. There are two main themes. The first is sterling’s heavy tone.

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Global Peace Index: Only 10 countries not at war (among them Switzerland)

The world is becoming a more dangerous place and there are now just 10 countries which can be considered completely free from conflict, according to authors of the 10th annual Global Peace Index, among them Switzerland.

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Visualizing “The 5000 Year Long Run” In 18 Stunning Charts

In the long run, as someone once said, we are all dead, but in the meantime, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett provides a stunning tour de force of the last 5000 years illustrates long-run trends in the return, volatility, valuation & ownership of financi...

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Bank Of America Reveals “The Next Big Trade”

Markets have stopped focusing on what central banks are doing and are "positioning for what they believe central banks may or may not do," according to BofA's Athanasios Vamvakidis as he tells FX traders to "prepare to fight the central banks," as th...

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The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal



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