Tag Archive: New Zealand

Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)

It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.

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As The Fed Seeks To Justify Raising Rates, Global Growth Rates Have Been Falling Off Uniformly Around The World

Sentiment indicators like PMI’s are nice and all, but they’re hardly top-tier data. It’s certainly not their fault, these things are made for very times than these (piggy-backing on the ISM Manufacturing’s long history without having the long history). Most of them have come out since 2008, if only because of the heightened professional interest in macroeconomics generated by a global macro economy that can never get itself going.

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Flash PMIs Play Second Fiddle to US PCE Deflator and Accelerating Inflation

The flash November PMIs would be the main focus in the week ahead if it were more normal times.  But these are not normal times, and growth prospects are not the key driver of the investment climate.  This quarters' growth is largely baked into the cake.  The world's three largest economies, the US, China, and Japan, are likely to accelerate for different reasons in Q4 from Q3.  Europe is the weak sibling, and growth in the eurozone and UK may slow...

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Euro Bounces Back, but the Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican...

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FX Daily, August 17: Antipodeans and Sterling Bear Brunt of Greenback’s Gains

Overview:  Concern about the economic impact of the virus and new efforts by China to curb "unfair" competition among online companies has triggered a dramatic response by investors.  A lockdown in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia signaling it will respond if the economic fallout increases sent the Antipodean currencies sharply lower.

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FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support

A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage exposure (convexity hedging), also play a role.

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FX Daily, February 24: Equities Try to Stabilize and Low Short-Term Rates Help Keep the Dollar on the Defensive

Overview:  The sharp recovery in US shares yesterday that saw the S&P 500 snap a five-day slide failed to carry into Asia Pacific trading earlier today.  All the markets fell save India and Singapore.  Losses were led by a 3% drop in Hong Kong as the first increase in the stamp duty (financial transaction tax) since 1993 was announced (0.13% from 0.10%). 

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FX Daily, February 22: Stocks Wilt under Pressure from Rising Yields

Higher interest rates, driven by inflation expectations, is forcing an adjustment to equity markets.  The S&P 500 is poised to gap lower today following slides in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Japanese and Taiwanese indices advanced by steep losses were seen in China, Hong Kong, and India.

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FX Daily, November 11: Reduced Risk of Negative Policy Rates Lifts Sterling and the Kiwi

Overview:  Investors are trying to figure out the impact of the likelihood of a vaccine. One thing that has happened is that the market perceives less chance that the UK or New Zealand will adopt negative rates, and their respective currencies are adjusting higher.  Meanwhile, the equity rally is continuing in Asia and Europe.

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FX Daily, October 08: Markets Catch Collective Breath

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highest levels in around a month yesterday, recouping Tuesday's presidential tweet-driven drop. We thought the market overreacted to the end of the fiscal talks as many had already recognized that a stimulus agreement was unlikely before the election, but the near round-trip seen in stocks and bonds was surprising.

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FX Daily, August 13: Dollar Remains Offered

The poor price action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 was shrugged off, and new highs for the recovery were made as the record high nears. The dollar, on the other hand, seemed to find plenty of sellers against most of the major currencies. The yen was a notable exception.

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FX Daily, May 14: Risk Appetites Wane

Overview: Risk appetites have been gradually waning this week. US equity losses mounted yesterday after Tuesday's late sell-off. Asia Pacific equities were off, with many seeing at least 1.5% drops. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off a little more to double this week's decline and leaves it in a position to be the biggest drop since panicked days in mid-March.

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FX Daily, March 23: Greenback Demand Not Satisfied by Swap Lines

Overview: In HG Wells' "War of the Worlds," the common cold repelled a Martian invasion. Now, a novel coronavirus is disrupting everything and everywhere. Global equities continue to get hammered, though the apparent relative resilience of Japan may have spurred some buying of Japanese equities.

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FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

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FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

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Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). As a currency, it gives rise to a tension between its use as a store of value and as medium of exchange.

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Talking Global Macro Investing With A 25-Year Market Veteran

If you were rich, successful, and intelligent - which often, not always, go hand in hand together - where would you live?The last time I was in the Rockies, I remember thinking to myself. You know what, if it weren't for the fact it's so damn far from the beach I could actually live here. It's really quite lovely.

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