Tag Archive: New Zealand

FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support

2021-02-26

by

2021-02-26

A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage exposure (convexity hedging), also play a role.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 24: Equities Try to Stabilize and Low Short-Term Rates Help Keep the Dollar on the Defensive

2021-02-24

by

2021-02-24

Overview:  The sharp recovery in US shares yesterday that saw the S&P 500 snap a five-day slide failed to carry into Asia Pacific trading earlier today.  All the markets fell save India and Singapore.  Losses were led by a 3% drop in Hong Kong as the first increase in the stamp duty (financial transaction tax) since 1993 was announced (0.13% from 0.10%). 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 22: Stocks Wilt under Pressure from Rising Yields

2021-02-22

by

2021-02-22

Higher interest rates, driven by inflation expectations, is forcing an adjustment to equity markets.  The S&P 500 is poised to gap lower today following slides in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Japanese and Taiwanese indices advanced by steep losses were seen in China, Hong Kong, and India.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 11: Reduced Risk of Negative Policy Rates Lifts Sterling and the Kiwi

2020-11-11

by

2020-11-11

Overview:  Investors are trying to figure out the impact of the likelihood of a vaccine. One thing that has happened is that the market perceives less chance that the UK or New Zealand will adopt negative rates, and their respective currencies are adjusting higher.  Meanwhile, the equity rally is continuing in Asia and Europe.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 08: Markets Catch Collective Breath

2020-10-08

by

2020-10-08

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highest levels in around a month yesterday, recouping Tuesday's presidential tweet-driven drop. We thought the market overreacted to the end of the fiscal talks as many had already recognized that a stimulus agreement was unlikely before the election, but the near round-trip seen in stocks and bonds was surprising.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 13: Dollar Remains Offered

2020-08-13

by

2020-08-13

The poor price action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 was shrugged off, and new highs for the recovery were made as the record high nears. The dollar, on the other hand, seemed to find plenty of sellers against most of the major currencies. The yen was a notable exception.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 14: Risk Appetites Wane

2020-05-14

by

2020-05-14

Overview: Risk appetites have been gradually waning this week. US equity losses mounted yesterday after Tuesday's late sell-off. Asia Pacific equities were off, with many seeing at least 1.5% drops. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off a little more to double this week's decline and leaves it in a position to be the biggest drop since panicked days in mid-March.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 23: Greenback Demand Not Satisfied by Swap Lines

2020-03-23

by

2020-03-23

Overview: In HG Wells' "War of the Worlds," the common cold repelled a Martian invasion. Now, a novel coronavirus is disrupting everything and everywhere. Global equities continue to get hammered, though the apparent relative resilience of Japan may have spurred some buying of Japanese equities.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

2019-12-11

by

2019-12-11

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

2019-11-13

by

2019-11-13

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

Read More »

Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

2019-09-20

by

2019-09-20

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

2019-04-17

by

2019-04-17

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

Read More »

If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

2018-01-07

by

2018-01-07

Organizational Theorist Frederic Laloux’s Five Kinds of Human Organizations
Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). As a currency, it gives rise to a tension between its use as a store of value and as medium of exchange.

Read More »

Talking Global Macro Investing With A 25-Year Market Veteran

2017-08-29

by

2017-08-29

Forest
If you were rich, successful, and intelligent - which often, not always, go hand in hand together - where would you live?The last time I was in the Rockies, I remember thinking to myself. You know what, if it weren't for the fact it's so damn far from the beach I could actually live here. It's really quite lovely.

Read More »

The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our politics.

Read More »

Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

by

2017-08-10

Volatility Pops, August 08 2017
US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

Read More »

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales

2017-06-13

by

2017-06-13

Known Unknowns
After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece.

Read More »

Money, Markets, & Mayhem – What To Expect In The Year Ahead

2017-01-05

by

2017-01-05

Houses
If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017's 'known unknowns' suggest a year of more mayhem awaits... Here's a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg's quick-takes on each).

Read More »

Negative and the War On Cash, Part 2: “Closing The Escape Routes”

2016-09-08

by

2016-09-08

History teaches us that central authorities dislike escape routes, at least for the majority, and are therefore prone to closing them, so that control of a limited money supply can remain in the hands of the very few. In the 1930s, gold was the escape route, so gold was confiscated. As Alan Greenspan wrote in 1966:

Read More »