Tag Archive: macro

Where We Stand

2024-04-12

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2024-04-12

I am on vacation, and then on a business trip that will interrupt the commentary until the weekly note on April 30. The May monthly analysis will be published the following week after the FOMC meeting and April employment report.

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Week Ahead: Strong US Jobs Data Failed to Sustain Dollar Rally, Can the March CPI do Better?

2024-04-06

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2024-04-06

The March US employment data were stronger than expected and lend support to the re-acceleration hypothesis and an extension of US exceptionalism. In Q1 24, nonfarm payrolls rose by an average of 276k. It was the strongest quarter in a year and compares with an average monthly job gain of about 251k in 2023. The unemployment rate slipped as the household survey jumped around 500k after falling in the previous two months. The workweek increased, and...

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April 2024 Monthly

2024-03-30

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2024-03-30

The macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have not changed substantially over the past month. The resilience of the US economy allows the Federal Reserve to put more emphasis on achieving price stability. While the market favors a June cut (66% vs. 80% at the end of February), it has not been fully discounted for over a month. The biggest event in March may have been the well-telegraphed exit from negative interest rate policy and Yield...

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Week Ahead: Enthusiasm for the Dollar Rekindled

2024-03-23

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2024-03-23

Last week will be remembered for several things. First, the Bank of Japan lifted its interest rate target for the first time in 17 years and formally ended its Yield Curve Control and ceased buying ETFs. The yen sold off and the dollar approach the 2022 and 2023 cap slightly below JPY152. Japanese officials have used the language that has signaled heightened risk of intervention in the past. Second, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10...

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Week Ahead: Central Banks

2024-03-16

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2024-03-16

There has been a dramatic adjustment to US rates. The two-year yield was near 4.40% before the US employment report on March 8 and it reached near 4.73% before the weekend. The 25 bp surge is the largest weekly increase since last May. For the first time in four months, the Fed funds futures strip is no longer has at least three rate cuts discounted. The interest rate adjustment underpinned the dollar, which rose against all the G10 currencies last...

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Week Ahead: Will Firm Headline US CPI and a Recovery in Retail Sales Help the Dollar Recover?

2024-03-09

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2024-03-09

When everything was said and done last week, the market did not change its mind. There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June. Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank was not far from the level of confidence needed to cut rates.

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March 2024 Monthly

2024-03-02

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2024-03-02

Rarely are officials able to achieve the proverbial economic soft-landing when higher interest rates help cool price pressures without triggering a significant rise in unemployment or a contraction.

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Week Ahead: With the Markets Converging (Again) with Fed’s Dots, Is the Interest Rate Adjustment Over?

2024-02-24

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2024-02-24

The US dollar and interest rates appear to be at an inflection point. Much of the past several weeks have been about correcting the overshoot that took place in  Q4 23, when the derivatives markets were pricing in nearly seven quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

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Week Ahead: China Returns and Flash PMI Featured after US Rate Adjustment was Extended

2024-02-17

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2024-02-17

The US January CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected and this extended the recovery in US interest rates. In turn that helped underpin the dollar. We do not think the data itself changes the Fed's stance. At least seven Fed officials speaking in the coming days will test this hypothesis. There are still several key reports before the data dependent FOMC meets again in about four weeks.

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Week Ahead: Will Soft US CPI and Retail Sales Mark the End of the Interest Rate Adjustment and Help Cap the Greenback?

2024-02-10

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2024-02-10

The markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that took place in late 2023. The first Fed rate cut has been pushed out of March and odds of a May move have been pared to the lowest since last November. The extent of this year's cuts has been chopped to about 4.5 quarter-point move (~112 bp) from more than six a month ago. The market has reduced the extent of ECB cuts to about 114 bp (from 160 bp at the end of January...

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Week Ahead: Markets Digest New Economic Divergence after US Employment Report

2024-02-03

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2024-02-03

The US employment data blew away expectations, jumping by 353k, nearly twice the median forecasts. That, coupled with the 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings, which was also twice expectations, helped drive home the Federal Reserve's reluctance to endorse what had been market speculation of a March rate cut and an aggressive rate cutting sequence. The dollar had softened as US rates eased following the FOMC meeting and new strains among regional...

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February 2023 Monthly

2024-01-27

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2024-01-27

The coming weeks will likely continue the correction of the trends that began last month. The markets recognize that tightening cycle is over. However, they swung hard, pricing in aggressive easing by most of the G10 central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Official comments and some high-frequency economic data have encouraged participants to rein in their expectations, reducing the odds of a rate cuts in Q1 and...

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Week Ahead: Too Early for Central Banks to Move, and Q4 GDP to Showcase US Economic Resilience (with the help of 6.5% budget deficit)

2024-01-20

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2024-01-20

The week ahead features the first estimate of US Q4 GDP, which will be revised for the next couple of years, and policy meetings by the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, Norway's central bank. Although the market anticipates the beginning of an aggressive easing cycle by several central banks, and an exit of the BOJ's negative interest rate policy, the start is not expected until later in the first half....

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Week Ahead: Real Economy

2024-01-13

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2024-01-13

Given the world's turmoil, including the escalation, and broadening of the conflict in the Middle East and China's continued aerial harassment of Taiwan ahead of the election, the capital and commodity markets have remained firm. February WTI fell about 1.7% last week and March Brent slipped around 0.65%. Shipping costs are rising as the Rea Sea is avoided and supply chain disruptions are threatened. Still the MSCI index of developed equity market...

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Week Ahead: Attention Turns Back to Inflation

2024-01-06

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2024-01-06

The terribly mixed US jobs report spurred dramatic intraday swings in exchange and US interest rates. But at the close, the dollar was little changed against most major currencies, and expectations for Fed policy was nearly unchanged. The futures market has about a 70% chance of a cut at the March meeting. The Dollar Index was off by less than 0.1%. Job growth held up better than expected in December, the unemployment rate held steady, and average...

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January 2024 Monthly

2023-12-30

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2023-12-30

The only thing that can be said with high confidence about the year ahead is that it will be different from 2023. Three broad forces will shape the business and investment climate in the year ahead.First, the post-Covid tightening cycle in the high-income countries, leaving aside Japan, has ended. The question is when and how fast rate cuts will be delivered. Moderating price pressures and weaker growth impulses have seen the pendulum of market...

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Week Ahead: What Central Banks Say may be More Important than What They Do

2023-12-09

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2023-12-09

There were three outsized moves last week. Gold had a $135 range on Monday, posted a key downside reversal, and fell below $2000 at the end of the week after setting a record high slightly above $2135. January WTI neared $80 on December 1 and traded below $69 on December 7, its lowest level in five months. The seven-week slide matches the longest since July/August 2015. Third, the dollar fell by a little more than 2.1% on December 7 against the...

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December 2023 Monthly

2023-12-02

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2023-12-02

As the year winds down, the global economy appears to be entering a new phase. While North American and European central bankers swear that they are prepared to respond to new threats to price stability, the markets demur. Indicative pricing in the derivatives markets reflects the general conclusion that the central banks have most likely completed the post-Covid monetary tightening cycle. Central bankers are pushing against a premature easing of...

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Week Ahead: US PCE Deflator, EMU CPI, China PMI, OPEC+, and COP28

2023-11-25

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2023-11-25

The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies last week. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Scandis  led the move, appreciating by about 0.55%-1.40% against the US dollar.  The dollar bloc and sterling recorded new highs for the month ahead of the weekend. Against the others, the dollar spent most of last week consolidating after its recent losses were extended at the start of the week. Still, our review of the technical condition warns...

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Short Note for the Day after Thanksgiving

2023-11-24

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2023-11-24

Price Action:  Since the North American markets closed Wednesday, the foreign exchange market has been subdued.  Most of the major currencies are +/- 0.2%.  The Antipodeans and sterling have risen a bit more.  The euro is in the middle of this week’s range (~$1.0850-$1.0965).  The dollar is at the upper end of this week's range against the Japanese yen (~JPY147.15-JPY149.75).  Sterling is trading near the high for...

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