Tag Archive: macro

September 2026 Monthly

2026-08-29

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2026-08-29

September brings a cluster of events that will shape the macro narrative into year-end. A Xi-Trump meeting, German state elections, a Federal Reserve decision with a new Summary of Economic Projections, and an ECB meeting that is not finished hiking. Each carries its own logic, but together they sketch the contours of the fourth quarter.In …

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Week Ahead: Warsh at Jackson Hole

2026-08-22

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2026-08-22

Introduced by the Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Samuelson in the late 1930s, "reveal preferences" says to look at what people are actually doing to determine their true preferences rather than what they say. Applying this to the US now suggests the administration is worried about the US Treasury market. Last week's announcement that the Treasury's bond …

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Week Ahead: Downward Data Surprise Stretch the US Dollar’s Momentum Indicators

2026-08-15

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2026-08-15

The combination of a loss of US jobs in July and softer inflation gauges, and an unexpected decline in July retail sales saw the derivatives market downgrade the chances that the three hawkish dissents last month will manage to convince their colleagues to hike rates at next month's FOMC meeting. The Fed funds futures finished …

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Week Ahead: Soft CPI to Follow Disappointing US Jobs Report

2026-08-08

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2026-08-08

The market has not been comfortable since the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of July. Despite the lip-service paid to the Fed's price stability mandate, only three officials favored doing something (raising rates) about it. It was hardly a coincidence then that the media reported that people close to the Fed chair said that …

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August 2026 Monthly

2026-08-01

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2026-08-01

(My X account, @marcmakingsense) was hijacked.  The plumbing from the blog is still working but all other tweets are not me.  While I work with X to see if I can regain control of the account, I have created another, @CapitalMarc.  I am away this coming week but will have the next weekly out on … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: War, Tariffs, and Three G10 Central Bank Meetings

2026-07-25

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2026-07-25

The escalation of the Middle East war sent oil prices sharply higher and pulled interest rates up, too. September WTI rose by more than 10% for a three-week increase of more than 25%. Neither side seems prepared to back down. However, judging by the largest spread this year (~$11) between the September WTI and the …

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Week Ahead: Tug-of-War between Softer US Rates and Safe-Haven from Escalating Middle East War

2026-07-18

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2026-07-18

The US dollar fell against all of the G10 currencies last week but the Japanese yen. The softer than expected US CPI and PPI saw the US two-year yield fell by nearly eight basis points. As we show below, in current context, several of the dollar pairs are very sensitive to the changes in short-term …

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Week Ahead: US CPI, China’s Q2 GDP, and Bank of Canada Meeting Featured

2026-07-11

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2026-07-11

The US dollar was mixed last week. The combination of strong data and the central bank's hawkish hike lifted the New Zealand dollar to the top of the G10 currencies. The roughly 4.5% rally in Brent oil, the first weekly gain in five weeks, seemed to help the Norwegian krone came in a close second. … Continue...

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The Week Ahead: Disappointing US Data, Soft Two-Yield Yield Warns Dollar Leg Up on Fed’s Hawkish Hold is Over

2026-07-04

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2026-07-04

The combination of soft disappointing US data, which culminated in a jobs report on July 2 that showed half the jobs growth that was expected and the continued decline in oil prices, recognized by Fed Chair Warsh in Sintra that inflation expectations have eased recently,  took the steam from US short-term rates and the greenback. …

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July 2026 Monthly

2026-06-27

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2026-06-27

Markets enter July with a ceasefire that nobody quite trusts. The 60-day de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has done its job on paper, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased markedly. Oil has responded accordingly, with August WTI down more than 30% from its May18 peak of over $100 a barrel. It reached around … Continue reading...

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Week Ahead: Digesting Last Week’s Evolving Developments

2026-06-20

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2026-06-20

Last week was momentous. There was a fragile 60-day de-escalation during negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, the allies of both (Hezbollah and Israel) continue to clash, stalling talks. Still, oil prices tumbled 7-9%. At the same time, a new era at the Federal Reserve has begun. The new chair eschews forward guidance, and this was …

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Week Ahead: 7 G10 Central Banks Meet, Only BOJ to Hike, Warsh Chairs First FOMC meeting, G7 Summit, and Possible US-Iran Agreement

2026-06-13

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2026-06-13

The week ahead is important. Seven G10 central banks meet. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and will not attend the central bank meeting, it is only central bank expected to hike. Still, the FOMC meeting is historic, even though there is practically no chance of a change in policy. Kevin …

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Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, while ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal

2026-06-06

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2026-06-06

(No commentary this week. Analysis returns on June 13 with the next weekly. Good luck, and thank you for your patience.)The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July WTI rose about 4.5% …

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Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar

2026-05-23

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2026-05-23

The resilience of the US economy is remarkable. The economy bounced back from near stagnation in Q4 25 (0.5% annualized pace) to 2% in Q1 26 and, and perhaps to 4.3% this quarter, if the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is accurate. Wall Street economists are less sanguine and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey from …

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Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback

2026-05-16

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2026-05-16

The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than … Continue reading...

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Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI

2026-05-09

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2026-05-09

There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI fell by 7% to around $95 a barrel, after rising by more than 22% in the previous two weeks. July Brent … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report

2026-05-02

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2026-05-02

Three developments stand out from last week. First, all five G10 central banks that met delivered in some form of hawkish holds. The Bank of Japan was the least convincing and the swap market barely changed the extent of the anticipated tightening this year. The year-end projection rose by about 22 bp in Canada, 19 …

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May 2026 Monthly

2026-04-25

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2026-04-25

The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is inclined to see the third consecutive hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia but the other G10 central … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?

2026-04-18

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2026-04-18

(No daily note this week while I am on a business trip but the May monthly will drop April 24. Thanks for your patience.)Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled …

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Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal

2026-04-11

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2026-04-11

Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans and Scandis, which seem the most sensitive to growth prospects and the risk … Continue reading...

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