Tag Archive: macro

No One Wants a Recession, but Central Banks are willing to Take the Risk to Demonstrate Anti-Inflation Resolve

The week ahead is busy. Three G7 central banks meet, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In addition, Japan and Canada report their latest CPI readings, and the flash September PMI are released.  There are three elements of the Fed's meeting that are worth previewing. First is the interest rate decision itself and the accompanying statement. Ironically, this seems to be the most straightforward. Even before the August...

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RBA, BOC, and ECB Meetings and more in the Week Ahead

All three major central banks that meet in the coming days will hike rates. The question is by how much. The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its announcement early Tuesday, September 6. One of the challenges for policymakers and investors is that Australia reports inflation quarterly. The Q2 estimate was released on July 27. It showed prices accelerating to 6.1% year-over-year from 5.1% in Q1. The trimmed mean rose to 4.9% from 3.7%, and the...

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September 2022 Monthly

The highlights of September include continued substantial rate hikes by the major central banks, save Japan. The Tories will pick a new leader, who will become the next prime minister of the UK. Italy looks determined to have a right-wing government. Sweden goes to the polls in mid-September.

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The Week Ahead: Dollar Bulls Still in Charge

The poor preliminary PMI readings, the ongoing European energy crisis, and the recognized commitment of most major central banks to rein in prices through tighter financial conditions are risking a broad recession. These considerations are weighing on sentiment and shaping the investment climate. Most high-frequency data due in the days ahead will not change this, even if they pose some headline risk.  

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Inflation

(Traveling and unable to provide a technical overview this week.) Rising price pressures, stronger and more persistent than generally expected, has been the main challenge for consumers, businesses, and policymakers. It will stay top of mind in the week ahead as both the world's two largest economies, the US and China, report July consumer and producer prices.  During the Great Depression, the central governments discovered their balance sheets,...

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Macro and Prices

Next week, there are three big events:  the US jobs report, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and the Bank of England's meeting. That said, the final PMI readings may be more helpful this time than we often see because of how quickly it appears activity has stalled.

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August 2022 Monthly

We can hope that August will be quiet. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan do not meet until September. With a snap Italian election on September 25, an Italian political storm may wait for vacationers to return.

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Macro and Prices

(Combining the weekend macro commentary and price action review in one note.  Check out the July monthly.) Three economic reports highlight the week ahead:  Japan's labor cash earnings at the start of the week and the US employment report and China's CPI at the end of the week.

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The End Game Approaches

The pendulum of market sentiment swings dramatically.  It has swung from nearly everyone and their sister complaining that the Federal Reserve was lagging behind the surge in prices to fear of a recession.

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May 2022 Monthly

The general contours of the business and investment climate are being shaped by three forces.  First, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions boost price pressures and slow growth.

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Central Banks on a Preset Course Reduces Significance of High-Frequency Data

Arguably the most important data next week is the flash PMI.   It is not available for all countries, but for those generally large G10 economies, the preliminary estimate is often sufficiently close to the final reading to steal its thunder.

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US CPI to Accelerate, while Omicron adds Color to Covid Wave that was Already Evident

At the risk of over-simplifying, there seem to be three sources of dynamism in the investment climate:  Covid, the Federal Reserve, and market positioning.  The last of these is often not given its due in narratives in the press and market commentary, so let's begin there.  The anthropologist Clifford Gertz once posed the question about distinguishing between someone winking and someone with a twitch in their eye, and a person mimicking the wink or...

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December Monthly

The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe in experiencing the surge.  Whatever herd immunity is, it has...

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November Monthly

Three main forces are shaping the business and investment climate:  Surging energy prices, a dramatic backing up of short-term interest rates in Anglo-American countries, and the persistence of supply chain disruptions. The US and Europe have likely passed peak growth.  Fiscal policy will be less accommodative, and financial conditions have tightened. Japan appears to be getting a handle on Covid and after a slow start.  Its vaccination rate has...

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March Monthly

The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world's stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March. First, will Covid-19 be contained for the most part by the end of Q1? 

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February Monthly

The global capital markets were roiled in recent weeks by the new virus that jumped species in China.  It is contagious during the incubation periods and appears similar though more aggressive than  SARS in 2003-2004.  And China is larger and significantly more integrated into the global political economy.    

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September Monthly

Three forces are shaping the investment climate. The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other's goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1).

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Real Disposable Income: Headwinds of the Negative

The PCE Deflator for January 2017 rose just 1.89% year-over-year. It was the 57th consecutive month less than the 2% mandate (given by the Fed itself when in early 2012 it made the 2% target for this metric its official definition of price stability).

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