Tag Archive: Lance Roberts

Red Flags In The Latest Retail Sales Report

2024-08-23

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2024-08-23

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and...

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Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip

2024-08-20

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2024-08-20

The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us. However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market...

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Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising

2024-08-16

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2024-08-16

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?” It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be. Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal...

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Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?

2024-08-13

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2024-08-13

Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously: “While there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% decline, it is essential to remember that low volatility represents a high “complacency” with investors. In...

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UBI – Tried, Tested And Failed As Expected

2024-08-09

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2024-08-09

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI) To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to...

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Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off

2024-08-06

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2024-08-06

On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.

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The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators

2024-08-02

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2024-08-02

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator. So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs. As...

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The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?

2024-07-23

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2024-07-23

We noted last Friday that over the previous few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns and driven the bull market. In that article, we questioned whether the dominance of just a handful of stocks can continue to drive the bull market. Furthermore, the breadth of the bull market rally has remained a vital concern of the bulls.

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Deviations From Long-Term Growth Trends Back To Extremes

2024-06-04

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2024-06-04

In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.

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Fed GDP Projections

2016-10-23

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2016-10-23

“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.

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Weekend Reading: Another Fed Stick Save, An Even Bigger Bubble

2016-09-23

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2016-09-23

Bull
As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as “accommodative monetary policy” is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed ...

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Intriguing Eruditions: The weak month of the stock market

2016-09-02

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2016-09-02

On Tuesday, I noted the end of summer and the entrance into one of the weakest months of the year statistically speaking. “We can confirm BofAML’s point by looking at the analysis of each month of September going back to 1960 as shown in the chart below."

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Weekend Reading Negative Rates: The Coin Flip Market

2016-08-26

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2016-08-26

As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party.

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Why Americans Get Poorer

2016-08-04

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2016-08-04

OUZILLY, France – Both our daughters have now arrived at our place in the French countryside. One brought a grandson, James, now 14 months old. He walks along unsteadily, big blue eyes studying everything around him. He adjusted quickly to the change in time zones. And he has adjusted to the French culture, too – he likes gnawing on a piece of tough local bread. But when she has trouble getting the little boy to sleep, our daughter asks Grandpa for...

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On the Road to Panicville

2016-05-31

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2016-05-31

  An Alert for the Global Posse of Liquidity Junkies In the summer of 2015 and again in December-February this year, global stock markets were rattled by weakness in the yuan’s exchange rate vs. the US dollar. Yuan weakness is widely held to exacerba...

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