Follow us or the Bunny gets it. No
Bunny gets it

Subscribe for newsletter


Follow us in Twitter



Gold standard and monetary metals:


Subscribe for browser push notifications

Tag Archive: Investing

Fed Funds Futures Offer Bond Market Insights

2024-08-21

by

2024-08-21

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it behooves us to appreciate how many interest rate cuts the Fed Funds futures market expects and over what period. Equally important, Fed Funds futures help us assess the market’s economic growth and inflation expectations. Currently, Fed Funds futures...

Read More »

Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip

2024-08-20

by

2024-08-20

The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us. However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market...

Read More »

Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising

2024-08-16

by

2024-08-16

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?” It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be. Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal...

Read More »

Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?

2024-08-14

by

2024-08-14

A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions. They liken recent Treasury debt issuance decisions to stealth QE. Per the first paragraph of the article’s executive summary: By adjusting the maturity profile of its debt issuance, the Treasury is dynamically managing financial conditions and through...

Read More »

Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?

2024-08-13

by

2024-08-13

Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously: “While there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% decline, it is essential to remember that low volatility represents a high “complacency” with investors. In...

Read More »

UBI – Tried, Tested And Failed As Expected

2024-08-09

by

2024-08-09

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI) To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to...

Read More »

Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine

2024-08-07

by

2024-08-07

Ask economists how they forecast economic activity. It’s likely they will mention productivity, demographics, debt, the Fed, interest rates, and a litany of other elements. Economic confidence is probably not at the top of the list for most economists. It is tricky to gauge as it can be inconsistent. However, confidence can sometimes change quickly and often with significant economic impacts. Look at the two pictures below. Can you spot a...

Read More »

Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off

2024-08-06

by

2024-08-06

On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.

Read More »

The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators

2024-08-02

by

2024-08-02

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator. So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs. As...

Read More »

The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?

2024-07-23

by

2024-07-23

We noted last Friday that over the previous few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns and driven the bull market. In that article, we questioned whether the dominance of just a handful of stocks can continue to drive the bull market. Furthermore, the breadth of the bull market rally has remained a vital concern of the bulls.

Read More »

Irrational Exuberance Then And Now

2024-07-17

by

2024-07-17

On December 5, 1996, Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan offered that stock prices may be too high, thus risking a correction that could result in an economic fallout. He wondered out loud if the market had reached a state of “irrational exuberance.”

Read More »

Deviations From Long-Term Growth Trends Back To Extremes

2024-06-04

by

2024-06-04

In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.

Read More »

Retail Sales Data Suggests A Strong Consumer Or Does It

2024-04-26

by

2024-04-26

The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year.

Read More »

Immigration And Its Impact On Employment

2024-04-12

by

2024-04-12

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border.

Read More »

Is Gold Warning Us Or Running With The Markets?

2024-04-10

by

2024-04-10

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics.

Read More »

Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run

2024-03-19

by

2024-03-19

With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.

Read More »

Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

2024-03-12

by

2024-03-12

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

Read More »

Presidential Elections And Market Corrections

2024-03-10

by

2024-03-10

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.

Read More »

Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution

2024-03-05

by

2024-03-05

Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track.

Read More »

Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

2024-02-16

by

2024-02-16

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average...

Read More »