Tag Archive: inflation

Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates Rise

2024-04-02

by

2024-04-02

Overview:  The market put more weight on the rise in the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates shot up and lifted the greenback. The Dollar Index made a new high for the year, a little above 105, which had been anticipated by the new lows recorded by the Bannockburn World Currency Index (a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of...

Read More »

Dollar Extends Gains Against the Yen but Broadly Firmer Ahead of the FOMC

2024-03-20

by

2024-03-20

Overview: The US dollar remains bid ahead of the outcome of today's FOMC meeting. No change in policy is expected, but the forward guidance, partly delivered in the updated projections, is the focus. In the last iteration (December), the Fed "dot" was for three rate cuts this year. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday today but dollar's gains against the yen have been extended and the greenback is nearing the peak seen in...

Read More »

Strong US Retail Sales may Help Extend the Dollar’s Recovery

2024-03-14

by

2024-03-14

Overview: We have put emphasis on today's US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped 1%.

Read More »

Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges

2024-03-05

by

2024-03-05

(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days.  Check out the March monthly here.  Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...

Read More »

Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies

2024-02-29

by

2024-02-29

The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.

Read More »

Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

2024-02-14

by

2024-02-14

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and...

Read More »

Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

2024-02-13

by

2024-02-13

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The...

Read More »

US Tech Sell-Off Challenges Risk Appetites Ahead of the FOMC

2024-01-31

by

2024-01-31

Overview: Ahead of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies. With US high-flying tech stocks posting steep losses after disappointing earnings reports, the currencies most sensitive to risk-appetites, the dollar bloc and the Norwegian krone are the weakest. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand, Philippine peso, and...

Read More »

USD Looks Oversold on Intraday Basis Ahead of a Possible Risk-Off North American Session

2024-01-26

by

2024-01-26

Overview:  The US dollar is trading lower against most currencies, but the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, suggesting the selling pressure may not be sustained through in North America today. December US personal income and consumption data was contained in yesterday's Q4 23 GDP data, but the market want to see the monthly print, which is expected to see the core measure ease with the headline rate flat. Tokyo's January CPI was much...

Read More »

China Data Dump Keeps Market Looking for a Rate Cut Next Week

2024-01-12

by

2024-01-12

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are...

Read More »

Can the US CPI Break the Dollar out of its Consolidation?

2024-01-11

by

2024-01-11

Overview: Stocks and bonds are trading higher, and the dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the December US CPI report. Most of the large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan to new 30-year-plus highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng snapped seven-day slide to post its first gain of 2024. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.33%, to recoup most of its losses in the past two sessions. US index futures enjoy a modest upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields in...

Read More »

Consolidation Featured

2024-01-08

by

2024-01-08

Overview: After dramatic intraday price swings after the US jobs data and service ISM figures before the weekend, the dollar is consolidating today in mostly narrow ranges. The prospect for a March cut by the Federal Reserve finished last Friday virtually unchanged (73% vs 70%) and is about 66% chance today. There was interest in Dallas Fed's Logan's suggestion that the tapering of QT be discussed, though it seems to simply confirm what many has...

Read More »

2023: A year in review

2023-12-30

by

2023-12-30

After the catastrophic covid crisis of 2020 and 2021, the extremely impactful and consequential Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many hoped that 2023 would break this terrible bad spell and finally present us all with some hope, economically, geopolitically, socially, technologically. Unfortunately, it only offered further reasons for serious concerns on all these fronts.  Economically, even though the official inflation rate followed a...

Read More »

Soft US CPI Today Paves Way for Fed Pivot Tomorrow

2023-12-12

by

2023-12-12

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against all the G10 currencies ahead of what is expected to be a soft November CPI report, which paves the way for a pivot by the FOMC tomorrow. It is expected to signal that policy may be sufficiently restrictive and anticipate being able to cut rates next year more than it thought in September, even if not as much as is priced into the market. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies...

Read More »

The Yen Stabilizes in a Broad Range but the Focus is on Today’s US Employment Report

2023-12-08

by

2023-12-08

Overview: The US dollar is a little firmer ahead of the November employment data. It is trading mostly inside yesterday's range. It is in a wide range against the Japanese yen (~JPY142.50-JPY144.50) even if not as wide as yesterday (~JPY141.70-JPY147.30). The Canadian and Australian dollars are the strongest among the G10 currencies, while the South Korean won, and Taiwanese dollar are the best performers among the emerging market complex. Gold,...

Read More »

Softer Tokyo CPI Buys BOJ Time while Moody’s Cuts the Outlook for China’s Debt following Fiscal Stimulus and the Continued Property Slump

2023-12-05

by

2023-12-05

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected...

Read More »

The Dollar is Having One of Its Best Days This Month

2023-11-30

by

2023-11-30

Overview: After being bludgeoned, the dollar is having one of its best days of the month. It is rising against all the major currencies. The Dollar Index is up about 0.5%, which is the most since the end of October. The greenback is also firmer against all the emerging market currencies but the Turkish lira and Russian ruble. Some of the demand for the dollar may be a function of month end, but also the disappointing Chinese PMI, revisions that...

Read More »

US CPI Front and Center, but Can Congress Avert a Government Shutdown?

2023-11-14

by

2023-11-14

Overview: The dollar is somewhat better offered today ahead of the October CPI report. The US House of Representatives may hold a vote today on a continuing resolution to avoid a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. Narrow ranges have prevailed. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, though paradoxically, the South Korean won is the weakest, despite a strong equity market rally (~1.2%), encouraged by the first in increase in...

Read More »

Food Prices Drive China’s CPI Lower while the Greenback is Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges

2023-11-09

by

2023-11-09

Overview: The dollar is mostly firmer against the G10 currencies and has been confined to tight ranges through the European morning. Outside of the China's deflation and Japan's monthly portfolio flow data that showed Japanese investors bought the most amount of US Treasuries (~$22 bln) in six months in September, the news stream is light. Most emerging market currencies are trading with a softer bias today. The Philippine peso is the strongest...

Read More »

Rethinking “safe” investments

2023-11-05

by

2023-11-05

Part II of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland. For those of us who have studied history, these Ingenuous beliefs and expectations likely bring a smirk to our face. However, these are entirely reasonable assumptions for most citizens, as the majority of the population is blissfully unaware of the numerous real-life examples that clearly demonstrate just how capable and how eager the government is to do these things – to fail, or to lie,...

Read More »