Tag Archive: inflation

The Short, Sweet Income Case For Ugly Inversion(s), Too

2022-04-04

by

2022-04-04

A nod to just how backward and upside down the world is now. The economic data everyone is made to pay attention to, payrolls, that one is, in my view, irrelevant. As is the consumer price estimates from earlier this week, the PCE Deflator. That’s another one which receives vast amounts of interest even though it is already old news.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices

2022-03-31

by

2022-03-31

There’s an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise two things will generally limit the scope of the increase. Demand will wane as consumers just use less or find substitutes. Supply will also increase as the companies that extract these raw materials open new mines, grow more crops or drill new wells.

Read More »

BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens

2022-03-30

by

2022-03-30

Overview:  A pullback in US yields yesterday and the Bank of Japan's stepped-up efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control policy helped extend the yen's recovery.  This spurred profit-taking on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei had rallied around 11% over the past two weeks. 

Read More »

We Can Only Hope For Another (bond) Massacre

2022-03-30

by

2022-03-30

To begin with, the economy today is absolutely nothing like it had been almost thirty years ago. That fact in and of itself should end the discussion right here. However, comparisons will be made and it does no harm to review them.I’m talking about 1994, or, more specifically, the eleven months between late February 1994 and early February 1995.

Read More »

Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally

2022-03-22

by

2022-03-22

With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets.

Read More »

The Fed Has No Idea What’s Coming Next!

2022-03-18

by

2022-03-18

We will let you know what we are doing once we know what we are doing was the message from the Federal Reserve statement and Chair Powell’s press conference that followed.

Read More »

Consumer Prices And The Historical Pain(s)

2022-03-12

by

2022-03-12

The 1947-48 experience was truly painful, maybe even terrifying. The US and Europe had just come out of a decade when the worst deflationary consequences were so widespread that the period immediately following quickly erupted into the worst conflagration in human history.

Read More »

Gold Gives You Personal Sovereignty

2022-03-09

by

2022-03-09

Dave Lukas of Misfit Entrepreneur invites Stephen Flood, CEO of GoldCore, to the show. Dave and Stephen talk about what people should know before investing in gold and silver, the present state of inflation, central banking, and the monetary system. Further, he explains why gold is still your safe-haven asset and how it provides you with personal sovereignty. They also talk about cryptocurrencies and their future. Stephen also...

Read More »

SWIFT Ban: A Game Changer for Russia?

2022-03-04

by

2022-03-04

As part of the sanctions against Russia, seven Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT. We start by discussing what SWIFT is, and then the implications of completely cutting Russia out of SWIFT. What is SWIFT and Why Russia is Being Excluded SWIFT – The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is a messaging system that links more than 11,000 banks in 200 countries. The system doesn’t move actual...

Read More »

The Red Warning

2022-02-24

by

2022-02-24

Now it’s the Russian’s fault. Belligerence surrounding Donbas and Ukraine, raw materials and energy supplies to Europe threatened by Putin’s coiled bear. Why wouldn’t markets grow worried?There’s always a reason why we shouldn’t take these things seriously, or quickly dismiss them out of hand as the temporary product of whichever political fear-of-the-day.

Read More »

The ‘Fed Put’ – Gone Until There’s Blood in the Streets

2022-01-30

by

2022-01-30

The ‘Fed put’ – gone until there’s blood in the streets Well, it’s happening.  Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies are sharply down, along with equity markets in many advanced economies. And the Federal Reserve (the U.S. Central Bank) statement and press conference on Wednesday didn’t indicate any backing down from raising interest rates, maybe as soon as the March meeting. The Fed’s stance pivot from ‘the economy needs...

Read More »

After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet**

2022-01-28

by

2022-01-28

It’s not hard to reason why there continues to be this conflict of interest (rates). On the one hand, impacting the short end of the yield curve, the unemployment rate has taken a tight grip on the FOMC’s limited imagination. The rate hikes are coming and the markets like all mainstream commentary agree that as it stands there’s nothing on the horizon to stop Jay Powell’s hawkishness.

Read More »

European Energy Crisis: 4 Things You MUST Know!

2022-01-23

by

2022-01-23

European Energy Crisis: 4 Reasons You MUST Know! European households are facing rising prices on many goods and services, but one particular standout is electricity and gas bills.

Read More »

Good Time To Go Fish(er)ing Around The Yield Curve

2022-01-21

by

2022-01-21

It should be as simple as it sounds. Lower LT UST yields, less growth and inflation. Thus, higher LT UST yields, more growth and inflation. Right? If nominal levels are all there is to it, then simplicity rules the interpretation. Visiting with George Gammon last week, he confessed to committing this sin of omission.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: A Very Contrarian View

2022-01-19

by

2022-01-19

What is the consensus about the economy today? Will 2022 growth be better or worse than 2021? Actually, that probably isn’t the right question because the economy slowed significantly in the second half of 2021. The real question is whether growth will improve from that reduced pace.

Read More »

US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

2022-01-16

by

2022-01-16

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation?

Read More »

How the Market Responds to US CPI may set the Near-Term Course

2022-01-12

by

2022-01-12

Overview:  US stocks built on the recovery started on Monday and Powell's suggestion of letting the balance sheet shrink later this year eased some speculation of a fourth hike this year, which seemed to allow the Treasury market to stabilize. 

Read More »

Conflict Of Interest (rates): 10-year Treasury Yield Highest in Almost Two Years

2022-01-12

by

2022-01-12

The dollar was high and going higher. Emerging markets had been seriously complaining. In one, the top central banker for India outright warned, “dollar funding has evaporated.” The TIC data supported his view, with full-blown negative months, net selling from afar that’s historically akin to what was coming out of India and the rest of the world.

Read More »

Gold Price News: Gold Down 1% in Wake of More Hawkish Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

2022-01-09

by

2022-01-09

Gold price fell to $1,808 an ounce in the wake of the release of the minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting, having hit an intra-day high of $1,829. Silver price fell to $22.72 an ounce from an intra-day high of $23.26.

Read More »

Inflation and Geopolitics in the Week Ahead

2022-01-08

by

2022-01-08

The Omicron variant may be less fatal than the earlier versions, but it is disrupting economies. The surge in the Delta variant well into Q4 in the US and Europe was already slowing the recoveries.  Investors will likely take the high-frequency real sector data with the proverbial pinch of salt until January data available beginning later this month.

Read More »