Tag Archive: Germany

Rising Rates Underpin the Greenback

2021-08-11

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2021-08-11

Overview: The US dollar remains firm ahead of the July CPI release, and even though Chicago Fed Evans demurred from the hawkish talk, the market is getting more comfortable with the idea of a rate hike next year. 

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Gold’s Flash Crash and Limited Follow-Through Greenback Gains

2021-08-09

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2021-08-09

Overview:  A flash crash saw gold drop more than $70 an ounce in early Asia. Silver was dragged lower too.  The precious metals have stabilized at lower levels, but it signals a rough adjustment to a higher interest rate environment as a hawkish BOE and strong US employment data suggest peak monetary stimulus is at hand. 

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls

2021-08-05

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2021-08-05

Overview: US interest rates and the dollar turned higher following comments by the Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida, who appeared to throw his lot with the more hawkish members. The dollar recovered from weakness that had seen it fall to almost JPY108.70, its lowest level since late May, and lifted the euro to $1.19. 

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Bond Reversal In Japan, But Pay Attention To It In Germany

2021-07-09

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2021-07-09

Japanese Gov't Bond Yields, Jan 2016 - Jul 2021
Yield curve control, remember that one? For a little while earlier this year, the modestly reflationary selloff in bonds around the world was prematurely oversold as some historically significant beginning to a massive, conclusive regime change.

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FX Daily, July 08: Capital Markets Remain Unhinged

2021-07-08

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2021-07-08

The dramatic move in the capital markets continues. The US dollar is soaring as yields and equities slide. The US 10-year yield has fallen below 1.30 to 1.26%  European benchmark yields are 1-4 bp lower, while Australia and New Zealand have seen a 7-9 bp drop today.

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FX Daily, July 07: Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday

2021-07-07

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2021-07-07

The dollar has steadied after surging yesterday and has so far retained the lion's share of its gains, though it remains lower against most major currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone are the best performers while the yen is underperforming.

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A Clear Balance of Global Inflation Factors

2021-06-30

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2021-06-30

Europe HICP and Germany HICP, Jan 2007 - May 2021
Back at the end of May, Germany’s statistical accounting agency (deStatis) added another one to the inflationary inferno raging across the mainstream media. According to its flash calculations, German consumer prices last month had increased by the fastest rate in 13 years.

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FX Daily, June 08: Marking Time ahead of the Week’s Big Events

2021-06-08

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2021-06-08

The capital markets appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of this week's big events, including the US CPI and the ECB meeting. Equities are little changed but with a heavier bias evident. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region were lower, except Australia, which eked out a small gain.

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FX Daily, June 07: The Greenback Steadies after Retreating on the Jobs Data

2021-06-07

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2021-06-07

After falling to 1.55% after the US employment data, which, while mixing expectations, could hardly be considered weak, the US 10-year yield has come back firmer today (1.58%) This may be lending the greenback a better tone. Equity markets are quiet. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.

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FX Daily, May 25: Softer Yields Weigh on the Greenback

2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

The decline in US 10-year rates to two-week lows below 1.59% is helping rebuild bullish enthusiasm for stocks and weighing on the US dollar. The NASDAQ reached two-week highs yesterday, and almost all the large markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though India struggled.

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FX Daily, May 10: The Dollar Remains on the Defensive

2021-05-10

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2021-05-10

Last week's cyberattack on the largest US gasoline pipeline continues to lift oil and gasoline prices. The June gasoline futures gapped higher to extend last week's 2.4% gain but has subsequently moved lower to enter the gap. 

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FX Daily, April 20: Market has Second Thoughts about Timing of First Fed Hike

2021-04-20

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2021-04-20

Overview:  Even as US yields edge higher, the dollar struggles. With the 10-year Treasury yields now at 1.62%, nine basis points above last week's lows, the greenback has turned mixed against the major currencies. After briefly slipping below JPY108, the dollar has recovered to around JPY108.55. 

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FX Daily, March 15: Big Week Begins Quietly

2021-03-15

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2021-03-15

The capital markets are beginning a new and busy week in a non-committal fashion.  Equities are mixed.  Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, most markets in the Asia Pacific region were lower, led Chinese and Indian shares. 

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FX Daily, March 9: Turn Around Tuesday Strikes

2021-03-09

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2021-03-09

It is not clear the trigger, but risk-taking appetites rebounded smartly today after the NASDAQ completed a more than 10% pullback from its highs yesterday.  Ironically, the Dow Jones Industrials set new record highs yesterday too.  Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied.  The notable exceptions were South Korea and China. 

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FX Daily, January 28: A Sea of Red Gives the Dollar a Bid

2021-01-28

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2021-01-28

The steepest loss in US equities since last October is rippling through the capital markets in the form of de-risking.  The rout is not over, and the S&P 500 is poised to gap lower.   Many of the largest markets in the Asia Pacific region were off around 2%. 

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FX Daily, January 18: US is on Holiday, but the Dollar has Legs

2021-01-18

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2021-01-18

Overview: The new week has begun like last week ended.  Equities are a bit heavy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second session, its first back-to-back loss since before Christmas.  China and Hong Kong were the notable exceptions, perhaps helped by stronger than expected GDP. 

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FX Daily, January 15: The Greenback is Finishing the Week with a Firm Tone

2021-01-15

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2021-01-15

The US dollar is firm against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are resilient. For the week, sterling and the yen appear poised to eke out small gains, while the Scandi's are the weakest performers with around a 1% decline.

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

2021-01-07

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2021-01-07

Overview:  After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week.  The euro's three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. 

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Seizing The Dirt Shirt Title

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

China PMI, 2010-2020
In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn.

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Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

2020-11-05

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2020-11-05

German Economy, 2012-2020
With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.

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