Tag Archive: Germany

Calmer Markets to Start the New Week

2023-03-27

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2023-03-27

Overview: There did not appear to be any negative surprises over the weekend, and this is helping calm investors' nerves at the start of the new week. Deutsche Bank shares have recovered most of the pre-weekend loss in the German market, and Stoxx bank index is posting a gain for the first time in four sessions. The AT1 ETF is slightly softer. In Japan, the Topix bank index slipped around 0.5%, its fourth decline in the past five sessions. Asia...

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Yen Jumps Despite Poor GDP Ahead of Tomorrow’s BOJ Outcome

2023-03-09

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2023-03-09

Overview: Seeing the drama he inspired on Tuesday, the Fed chair tried soft-pedaling the idea that he was signaling a 50 bp hike in March. The market did not buy it. And the odds, discounted by the Fed funds futures rose a little above 70% from about 62% at Tuesday's close. The two-year note yield solidified its foothold above the 5% mark. With the Bank of Canada confirming its pause, the Reserve Bank of Australia does not seem that far behind, and...

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US Dollar is Better Bid Ahead of Powell, while Aussie Sells Off on Dovish Hike by the RBA

2023-03-07

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2023-03-07

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress. Speaking for the Federal Reserve, the Chair is likely to stay on message which is higher rates are necessary to cool the overheating economy. This comes on the heels of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 25 bp hike and indication that it is not pre-committing to an April hike. The...

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Markets Catch Collective Breath

2023-02-27

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2023-02-27

Overview: After last week's flurry of activity that saw the US dollar extend its recovery, it has begun off the new week largely consolidating in relatively narrow ranges. The Australian and New Zealand dollar's remains softer, and the Swiss franc is virtually flat, but the other G10 currencies, led by sterling are posting small gains. A break-through on the Northern Ireland protocol, which has been rumored for a more than a week may be announced...

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Siemens Issues First Digital Bond on Blockchain

2023-02-15

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2023-02-15

Siemens is one of the first companies in Germany to issue a digital bond, in accordance with Germany’s Electronic Securities Act.

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Yen Retreats Ahead of Formal BOJ Announcement Tomorrow and US CPI

2023-02-13

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2023-02-13

Overview: A consolidative tone is mostly the theme of the day. The revisions to the US CPI announced before the weekend add to the uncertainty and focus on tomorrow's report. At the same time, investors watch ongoing air space activity that has led to a few objects being shot down over the US and Canadian airspace.

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US Interest Rate Adjustment Post-Jobs is Over as the 2-Year Yield Backs Away from 4.50%

2023-02-09

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2023-02-09

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly....

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Anti-Climactic Return of China

2023-01-30

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2023-01-30

Overview: The re-opening of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday, was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...

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Bank of Canada may say Pause, but the Market Hears Finished

2023-01-25

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2023-01-25

Overview: Amid sharp losses in the US equity futures, the US dollar is mostly firmer against the G10 currencies. The notable exception is the Australian dollar, where high-than-expected inflation boosts the risk of a more aggressive central bank.

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Euro Pokes Above $1.09. Will it be Sustained?

2023-01-23

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2023-01-23

Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the S&P 500 snap a four-day decline.

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With Trepidation, the Market Awaits the BOJ

2023-01-17

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2023-01-17

With the market nearly ruling out a 50 bp hike by the Federal Reserve on February 1, the interest rate adjustment appears to have largely run its course. This may be helping to ease the selling pressure on the greenback.

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Monday and Beyond

2023-01-16

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2023-01-16

Monday Ranges: Euro: $1.0802-$1.0874JPY/$: JPY127.23-JPY128.87GBP: $1.2172-$1.2289CAD/$: CAD1.3353-CAD1.3418AUD: $0.6941-$0.7019MXN/$: MXN18.7313-MXN18.8566Rumors of an emergency BOJ meeting sent the dollar to its lows in Tokyo, slightly below the pre-weekend low (~JPY127.46). The on-the-run (most current) 10-year yield settled above the 0.50% cap and the generic 10-year bond has not traded below the 0.50% level since January 5. The market...

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Dollar Index Gives Back Half of 21-Month Gains in 3 1/2 Months

2023-01-13

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2023-01-13

Overview: The continued easing of US price pressures has strengthened the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will further slow the pace of rate hikes and that the terminal rate will be near 5.0%. The decline in US rates has removed a key support for the US dollar, which has fallen against all the G10 currencies this week. The Dollar Index has now retraced half of what it gained since bottoming on January 6, 2021. Meanwhile, there are...

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Greenback’s Sell-off may Stall Ahead of Powell Tomorrow

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Overview: Don't fight the Fed went the manta as the market took the US two-year yield back up to 4.50% in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes last week, the highest in over a month. The minutes warned of a premature easing of financial conditions. And then bam, softer than expected hourly earnings and a weak service PMI and bonds and stocks rallied, and the dollar was sold. This is a key part of the backdrop for this week, for which several Fed...

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USD Stretched Ahead of Employment Report, while Yuan Jumps on Hopes of New Property Initiatives

2023-01-06

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2023-01-06

Overview: The US dollar extended yesterday's gains as the market adjusts positions ahead of the jobs data. Yesterday and today's price action looks to have strengthened the near-term technical outlook for the greenback. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched. This warns of the risk of a counter-intuitive move after the data, barring a significant surprise. Meanwhile, one of the Fed's leading hawkish voices, St. Louis Fed President...

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The Market Appears to Shrug Off the Fed’s Warning

2023-01-05

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2023-01-05

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in a mixed fashion today. The FOMC minutes drew much attention but failed, at least initially, to spur a significant shift in expectations. The pricing in the Fed funds futures strip is still consistent with a cut later this year, which the minutes were clear, no officials anticipate. Today's US ADP jobs estimate, and November trade balance are being overshadowed by tomorrow's nonfarm payroll figures. The...

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US CPI ahead of FOMC Outcome Tomorrow

2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the...

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Political Developments Overshadow Economics

2022-12-08

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2022-12-08

Overview: There is nervous calm in the capital markets today.  The weakness of US shares yesterday is taking a toll today. An exception in the Asia Pacific region is the Hang Seng and the index of mainland shares that trade there, which up around 3.5% today on thUe easing of some Covid protocols.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for a fifth day, its longest losing streak in nearly two months. US futures are posting minor gains. Benchmark 10-year yields...

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Risk Appetites Challenged after US Equities Tumble

2022-12-07

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2022-12-07

Overview: The sharp sell-off of US stocks yesterday as sapped the risk appetite today. Equities are being sold. Hong Kong and the index of mainland shares that are listed there led the regional decline with 3.2%-3.3% losses. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.65% in late morning turnover, the fourth day of losses. US futures are trading with a lower bias as well. European 10-year bonds are mostly 1-2 bp firmer. The US 10-year Treasury is practically...

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Questioned Today

2022-12-06

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2022-12-06

Overview: The 11 bp jump in the 10-year US yield yesterday after dropping nearly 26 bp in the previous three sessions, helped the greenback recover and took a toll on stocks. Still, the S&P 500 is above the low set on November 30 (~3939) before Fed Chair Powell's talk that day.

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