Tag Archive: Fiscal

FX Daily, May 13: Will Powell have any more Luck Pushing against Negative Rate Expectations in the US?

Overview: Another late sell-off in US shares, this one perhaps related to the sobering assessment by the leading medical adviser for the Trump Administration about the risks of opening too early, failed to deter investors in the Asia Pacific region. Although Japanese shares slipped, most other markets rose. India led the way (~2%) after a fiscal stimulus program was announced.

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The Out Has Not Yet Begun to Fall, Market Report 31 March

So, the stock market has dropped. Every government in the world has responded to the coronavirus with drastic, if not unprecedented, violations of the rights of the people. Not to mention, extremely aggressive monetary policy. And, they are about to unleash massive fiscal stimulus as well (for example, the United States government is about to dole out over $2 trillion worth of loot).

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FX Weekly Preview: Recovering from Too Much of a Good Thing?

Too much of a good thing is bad. That, in a nutshell, is an important insight that Hyman Minsky offered about the financial sector, but has broader application. The low volatility that has been a characteristic of the capital markets for the past few years spurred financial innovation to profit from it.

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Monetary Policy is Important, but US Fiscal Stance Moving Center Stage

Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out.

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Great Graphic: Growth in Federal Spending

Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President.

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FX Weekly Preview: Punctuated Equilibrium and the Forces of Movement

Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.

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Some Thoughts on US Fiscal Policy

The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy. In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent. The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP.  Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%.  This year and next … Continue reading...

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